I’ve been trying to make the best of lockdown by trading as many US and Aus races that I can. So far I’ve done okay using smaller stakes. Over about 120 races I’ve got a 63% strike rate overall.
The big issue that I’m having is spotting when a trend is about to reverse. I’m not trying to join the trend I’m trying to get in in the hope of a bounce.
I’ve been looking for situations where the price has come in and stalled with lots of volume building up at a few price points.
This has worked sometimes but other times after a pause at these levels the price has burst through And come in quickly.
Can anyone point me towards the other things I should be looking for to increase my strike rate in the situations?
Thanks
Continuing Trend or Reversal?
> I’ve got a 63% strike rate overall.
How does that compare to the implied strike rate from the prices of your bets? Often you may not be able to improve your strike rate in absolute terms, but what matters is that your strike rate is better than the implied strike rate from the odds. E.g. I could easily get a 90% strike rate by always taking bets at 1.01 but the implied strike rate at those prices would be ~99% and I'd lose money in the long term. If I get this 90% strike rate when implied strike rate is 80%, then I'd be profitable.
I don't trade manually but what I can say is that there's a lot of fake volume that often comes in so it can often be difficult to use volume in the market as an indicator. What you should do is download the data and look at it programmatically (if you can) to look at the relationship between volumes and reversal. You might find that when volume increases by x% on top of book, the trend reverts for some number of ticks y% of the time. One pitfall that many people fall into is chasing the market, so try and avoid that.
How does that compare to the implied strike rate from the prices of your bets? Often you may not be able to improve your strike rate in absolute terms, but what matters is that your strike rate is better than the implied strike rate from the odds. E.g. I could easily get a 90% strike rate by always taking bets at 1.01 but the implied strike rate at those prices would be ~99% and I'd lose money in the long term. If I get this 90% strike rate when implied strike rate is 80%, then I'd be profitable.
I don't trade manually but what I can say is that there's a lot of fake volume that often comes in so it can often be difficult to use volume in the market as an indicator. What you should do is download the data and look at it programmatically (if you can) to look at the relationship between volumes and reversal. You might find that when volume increases by x% on top of book, the trend reverts for some number of ticks y% of the time. One pitfall that many people fall into is chasing the market, so try and avoid that.
Maybe check out some of these old threads, there is much knowledge on here that newbies should explore using the search engine with some key phrases. I will be re-reading them myself later. 
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9745&hilit=trend+reversaldo not make
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6474&p=51186&hilit= ... sal#p51186
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6895&p=54147&hilit= ... sal#p54147
viewtopic.php?f=42&t=7339&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8541&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7991&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9745&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9745&hilit=trend+reversaldo not make
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6474&p=51186&hilit= ... sal#p51186
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6895&p=54147&hilit= ... sal#p54147
viewtopic.php?f=42&t=7339&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8541&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7991&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9745&hilit=trend+reversal
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Archery1969
- Posts: 4478
- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
There is allot of good information and advice in those threads.Emmson wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:57 pmMaybe check out some of these old threads, there is much knowledge on here that newbies should explore using the search engine with some key phrases. I will be re-reading them myself later.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9745&hilit=trend+reversaldo not make
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6474&p=51186&hilit= ... sal#p51186
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6895&p=54147&hilit= ... sal#p54147
viewtopic.php?f=42&t=7339&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8541&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7991&hilit=trend+reversal
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9745&hilit=trend+reversal