Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Lessons learned from today:

1) Your horse might move due to a 7thfav "steamer"
2) Your horse might move on it's own due to a "slack" overround
3) There's a point where your horse ain't coming back....

Based on my experiences so far, and my rough small bet sizes, I see a significant number of trades go -£1.5 against me to end up winning +£1->£2, but few that go roughly -£2.5 that come back, so based on that -£2 stop loss it is then
I reckon that would have saved me £9 of losses today possibly.

[speedyhamster]

Lessons learned from today:

1) Your horse might move due to a 7thfav "steamer"
2) Your horse might move on it's own due to a "slack" overround
3) There's a point where your horse ain't coming back....

Based on my experiences so far, and my rough small bet sizes, I see a significant number of trades go -£1.5 against me to end up winning +£1->£2, but few that go roughly -£2.5 that come back, so based on that -£2 stop loss it is then
I reckon that would have saved me £9 of losses today possibly.

4) your horse might move Because of a large Bettor or bookmaker putting a large bet through called a spike.
5) your horse might reverse direction because 1 or more horses might bounce off a crossover point.

learning trading is like learning to Drive , learn and practice small steps before jumping in, then put them all together. as Peter has said do not try to do too much at once you will only get confused.

example Learn how to trade a steamer , Learn how to trade a bounce at a crossover point. then when you have mastered Both, you will notice number 5 above and you will have some market knowledge and will have some ability to read a market. (do not back the fav if the second and maybe even the 3rd fav are drifting up to crossover points and are likely to bounce, and steam down adding pressure on the fav to Drift).

[wearthefoxhat]

Lessons learned from today:

1) Your horse might move due to a 7thfav "steamer"
2) Your horse might move on it's own due to a "slack" overround
3) There's a point where your horse ain't coming back....

Based on my experiences so far, and my rough small bet sizes, I see a significant number of trades go -£1.5 against me to end up winning +£1->£2, but few that go roughly -£2.5 that come back, so based on that -£2 stop loss it is then
I reckon that would have saved me £9 of losses today possibly.

4) your horse might move Because of a large Bettor or bookmaker putting a large bet through called a spike.
5) your horse might reverse direction because 1 or more horses might bounce off a crossover point.

learning trading is like learning to Drive , learn and practice small steps before jumping in, then put them all together. as Peter has said do not try to do too much at once you will only get confused.

example Learn how to trade a steamer , Learn how to trade a bounce at a crossover point. then when you have mastered Both, you will notice number 5 above and you will have some market knowledge and will have some ability to read a market. (do not back the fav if the second and maybe even the 3rd fav are drifting up to crossover points and are likely to bounce, and steam down adding pressure on the fav to Drift).

Nice post.

If using any sort of software, there is a need to take time to learn that as well. Some good strategies can be undone by making basic mistakes using the wrong ladder set up or global setting, by clicking more than once on an order, or forgetting to size the stake correctly.

Each of the below are projects within themselves;

a) Learn how to use the software basics, then in time, incorporate your strategy, manually for small stakes (before scaling up)
b) Review Peter Webb's video(s) and include trading elements that suit your style. (scalp/swing/automation)
c) Consider automation/semi-automation to aid entry or exit points to support your trading style. (Dallas-shared automation thread)
d) Enjoy the process - Take a break - Don't get F.O.M.O. (there will always be another opportunity) - Be kind to yourself

If possible, attend a Peter Webb Masterclass. (might be one in the future) or Peter might write a book (New York Best Seller?)

[goat68]

Rubbish day that ended +ve more by luck than judgement I think, some very ill behaving charts for me today...
10 wins : AVG +£2.22
8 losses : AVG -£2.46
Net: +£2.52

[speedyhamster]

Lessons learned from today:

1) Your horse might move due to a 7thfav "steamer"
2) Your horse might move on it's own due to a "slack" overround
3) There's a point where your horse ain't coming back....

Based on my experiences so far, and my rough small bet sizes, I see a significant number of trades go -£1.5 against me to end up winning +£1->£2, but few that go roughly -£2.5 that come back, so based on that -£2 stop loss it is then
I reckon that would have saved me £9 of losses today possibly.

4) your horse might move Because of a large Bettor or bookmaker putting a large bet through called a spike.
5) your horse might reverse direction because 1 or more horses might bounce off a crossover point.

learning trading is like learning to Drive , learn and practice small steps before jumping in, then put them all together. as Peter has said do not try to do too much at once you will only get confused.

example Learn how to trade a steamer , Learn how to trade a bounce at a crossover point. then when you have mastered Both, you will notice number 5 above and you will have some market knowledge and will have some ability to read a market. (do not back the fav if the second and maybe even the 3rd fav are drifting up to crossover points and are likely to bounce, and steam down adding pressure on the fav to Drift).

Nice post.

If using any sort of software, there is a need to take time to learn that as well. Some good strategies can be undone by making basic mistakes using the wrong ladder set up or global setting, by clicking more than once on an order, or forgetting to size the stake correctly.

Each of the below are projects within themselves;

a) Learn how to use the software basics, then in time, incorporate your strategy, manually for small stakes (before scaling up)
b) Review Peter Webb's video(s) and include trading elements that suit your style. (scalp/swing/automation)
c) Consider automation/semi-automation to aid entry or exit points to support your trading style. (Dallas-shared automation thread)
d) Enjoy the process - Take a break - Don't get F.O.M.O. (there will always be another opportunity) - Be kind to yourself

If possible, attend a Peter Webb Masterclass. (might be one in the future) or Peter might write a book (New York Best Seller?)

Thanks also a nice post

[goat68]

Watched Peter's latest video about his last 20 years and his 'tips', excellent.
That then made me spend the last hour watching a handful more of his BAAcademy Psychology course.
I'm now feeling more positive about my stop loss strategy, or rather when I determine my judgement is wrong.

[alexmr2]

**** !!
Just lost it... and got very frustrated with my old pet hate, being my horse moving against me and no other horses moving, my get out rule is to look at the other horses and if they still look good eg.still behind their support, then stay in as my horse should come back... 3 horses didn't today... I need to work out a better way with this, as it blew me out of the water, I got frustrated and angry with it... All the videos state if one horse moves one way, the others should balance... what am I missing?

Also got caught out by something like this yesterday and have a few times when all 4 drift. Reviewing the screenshot I had a good entry backing the downtrending favourite at 3.5 with the other three held up by support and not much room to come in. The favourite then strongly swings up so I get out and it continues up to 4.3 fast with only the 4th runner (with one quarter the volume of the favourite) pushes towards the bottom of it's range. I remember seeing a steaming 7th runner on the market overview yesterday but not sure if this was the same race. Maybe sometimes it's just because this runner is the market driver and all the volume activity is on it?

[jimibt]

**** !!
Just lost it... and got very frustrated with my old pet hate, being my horse moving against me and no other horses moving, my get out rule is to look at the other horses and if they still look good eg.still behind their support, then stay in as my horse should come back... 3 horses didn't today... I need to work out a better way with this, as it blew me out of the water, I got frustrated and angry with it... All the videos state if one horse moves one way, the others should balance... what am I missing?

Also got caught out by something like this yesterday and have a few times when all 4 drift. Reviewing the screenshot I had a good entry backing the downtrending favourite at 3.5 with the other three held up by support and not much room to come in. The favourite then strongly swings up so I get out and it continues up to 4.3 fast with only the 4th runner (with one quarter the volume of the favourite) pushes towards the bottom of it's range. I remember seeing a steaming 7th runner on the market overview yesterday but not sure if this was the same race. Maybe sometimes it's just because this runner is the market driver and all the volume activity is on it?

yup -sometimes it's nice to setup (in automation and represented on guardian) a few SV's that highlight the book% vs volume% in order to get a feel for what's underpinning the price on something. quite often, the disparity is quite wide and leaves lots of options for the patient.

[goat68]

7 wins : AVG +£2.98
6 losses : AVG -£3.77
Net: -£1.73

Random trading to be honest. My new approach to exit was aweful, and was lucky, one trade went -£11 against me to come back and win +£1 !
Some horrendous volatility, it was obvious when the bots kicked in, I typically noticed it lurch and go haywire at 7mins, then again at 3mins, it was untradeable for me manually.

I'm approaching 1000 traded markets, and not much the wiser in terms of "Subjective" manual trading. I'm feeling much like what Peter says in his videos: "You just don't get it do you?" (NO!)

[ShaunWhite]

7 wins : AVG +£2.98
6 losses : AVG -£3.77
Net: -£1.73

Random trading to be honest. My new approach to exit was aweful, and was lucky, one trade went -£11 against me to come back and win +£1 !
Some horrendous volatility, it was obvious when the bots kicked in, I typically noticed it lurch and go haywire at 7mins, then again at 3mins, it was untradeable for me manually.

I'm approaching 1000 traded markets, and not much the miser in terms of "Subjective" manual trading. I'm feeling much like what Peter says in his videos: "You just don't get it do you?" (NO!)

Have you started using a meaningful stop rather than just a cash amount?

-7mins isn't bots it's around when the prev race finishes and everyone looks at the next race.

-3 mins could well be when they're in the parade ring and people get to see them

You might also get another flurry when they're being put in the stalls if a few play up.

Don't start getting hung up on bots, they aren't making it untradeable and they've been there for 10+yrs so hardly new. If the markets were volatile then were they mainly unexposed horses, or had it started raining hard, or a poor quaily race? If markets behave differently then it's because the real world has something to do with it.

Don't just watch 1000 ladders, engage with 1000 events because that's were you see what the ladders are reacting too.

[goat68]

7 wins : AVG +£2.98
6 losses : AVG -£3.77
Net: -£1.73

Random trading to be honest. My new approach to exit was aweful, and was lucky, one trade went -£11 against me to come back and win +£1 !
Some horrendous volatility, it was obvious when the bots kicked in, I typically noticed it lurch and go haywire at 7mins, then again at 3mins, it was untradeable for me manually.

I'm approaching 1000 traded markets, and not much the miser in terms of "Subjective" manual trading. I'm feeling much like what Peter says in his videos: "You just don't get it do you?" (NO!)

Have you started using a meaningful stop rather than just a cash amount?

-7mins isn't bots it's around when the prev race finishes and everyone looks at the next race.

-3 mins could well be when they're in the parade ring and people get to see them

You might also get another flurry when they're being put in the stalls if a few play up.

Don't start getting hung up on bots, they aren't making it untradeable and they've been there for 10+yrs so hardly new. If the markets were volatile then were they mainly unexposed horses, or had it started raining hard, or a poor quaily race? If markets behave differently then it's because the real world has something to do with it.

Don't just watch 1000 ladders, engage with 1000 events because that's were you see what the ladders are reacting too.

I see slightly what you mean, so I have done the ladder and chart bit, but need to diverse to understand the influence of the event and conditions... ?

[goat68]

Watch the live video etc..

[goat68]

7 wins : AVG +£2.98
6 losses : AVG -£3.77
Net: -£1.73

Random trading to be honest. My new approach to exit was aweful, and was lucky, one trade went -£11 against me to come back and win +£1 !
Some horrendous volatility, it was obvious when the bots kicked in, I typically noticed it lurch and go haywire at 7mins, then again at 3mins, it was untradeable for me manually.

I'm approaching 1000 traded markets, and not much the miser in terms of "Subjective" manual trading. I'm feeling much like what Peter says in his videos: "You just don't get it do you?" (NO!)

Have you started using a meaningful stop rather than just a cash amount?

-7mins isn't bots it's around when the prev race finishes and everyone looks at the next race.

-3 mins could well be when they're in the parade ring and people get to see them

You might also get another flurry when they're being put in the stalls if a few play up.

Don't start getting hung up on bots, they aren't making it untradeable and they've been there for 10+yrs so hardly new. If the markets were volatile then were they mainly unexposed horses, or had it started raining hard, or a poor quaily race? If markets behave differently then it's because the real world has something to do with it.

Don't just watch 1000 ladders, engage with 1000 events because that's were you see what the ladders are reacting too.

Oh and I was trying to use a meaningful stop, but I ended with a few big losses as a result!

[goat68]

I'm going to try something a bit different tomorrow, I think I went too far to the risk taking side, and not enough of the quantitative side...

[ShaunWhite]

I see slightly what you mean, so I have done the ladder and chart bit, but need to diverse to understand the influence of the event and conditions... ?

Yep, The ladder isn't a stand alone thing in it's own right, it's just window on the world. If you're trading stocks you know when the economic reports are coming out and if you trade horses you know when the punters start to cement or change their opinions, or at least be aware of the things that might. The ladder alone won't tell you why the ladder moves.

And re unexposed horses and novices etc, they sometime move rapidly because even a rumour can start a stampede to the bookies whereas 10 horses who've been seen week in week out for 5 yrs are pretty much known quantities. They're weaker markets too with not a lot of general interest, so half a dozen people having a few hundred quid on each can move things in a way that would take £¼m at Cheltenham.