Trading What I see !?

[ShaunWhite]

Oh and I was trying to use a meaningful stop, but I ended with a few big losses as a result!

How come? Surely the point at which the trade had turned bad, pehaps breaking through a nearby key price. was close enough for it not to be too bad. How many ticks was big, 4? 5 maybe?

[goat68]

Oh and I was trying to use a meaningful stop, but I ended with a few big losses as a result!

How come? Surely the point at which the trade had turned bad, pehaps breaking through a nearby key price. was close enough for it not to be too bad. How many ticks was big, 4? 5 maybe?

So 6-7 ticks, some were really quick moves, for example it's sitting at 4.1 then at 3mins to go, it goes snap, and drops to 3.7 in seconds, I manage to trade out at 3.5...
I think im picking the wrong races that are too volatile

[jamesg46]

Oh and I was trying to use a meaningful stop, but I ended with a few big losses as a result!

How come? Surely the point at which the trade had turned bad, pehaps breaking through a nearby key price. was close enough for it not to be too bad. How many ticks was big, 4? 5 maybe?

So 6-7 ticks, some were really quick moves, for example it's sitting at 4.1 then at 3mins to go, it goes snap, and drops to 3.7 in seconds, I manage to trade out at 3.5...
I think im picking the wrong races that are too volatile

Can you talk us through the trade a little more and the reason you had your lay position at 4.1?

[goat68]

How come? Surely the point at which the trade had turned bad, pehaps breaking through a nearby key price. was close enough for it not to be too bad. How many ticks was big, 4? 5 maybe?

So 6-7 ticks, some were really quick moves, for example it's sitting at 4.1 then at 3mins to go, it goes snap, and drops to 3.7 in seconds, I manage to trade out at 3.5...
I think im picking the wrong races that are too volatile

Can you talk us through the trade a little more and the reason you had your lay position at 4.1?

Sure. Setup was based on a pattern I've seen, and my subjective view was most traders would see it as a backing opportunity, so I was playing the counter intuitive lay. 2nd/3rd were against some form of resistance.
I set target for about 4.6

[ShaunWhite]

my subjective view was most traders would see it as a backing opportunity, so I was playing the counter intuitive lay.

It's the punters you want to be 2nd guessing, the traders hopefully read it right

[goat68]

my subjective view was most traders would see it as a backing opportunity, so I was playing the counter intuitive lay.

It's the punters you want to be 2nd guessing, the traders hopefully read it right

But don't 95% of traders lose...?
You make a good point though, and that is market participants, who is trading/betting and when in those last 15 mins...?
My thoughts:
15-8mins : novice traders doing FOMO and being impatient, as well as some betting shop punters
10-5: some experienced traders and early on course punters
7-3: some bots
5-0: more bots, on course punters, smart traders, bookies balancing their books

[jamesg46]

my subjective view was most traders would see it as a backing opportunity, so I was playing the counter intuitive lay.

It's the punters you want to be 2nd guessing, the traders hopefully read it right

But don't 95% of traders lose...?
You make a good point though, and that is market participants, who is trading/betting and when in those last 15 mins...?
My thoughts:
15-8mins : novice traders doing FOMO and being impatient, as well as some betting shop punters
10-5: some experienced traders and early on course punters
7-3: some bots
5-0: more bots, on course punters, smart traders, bookies balancing their books

The market is 75% Traders and the "95% of traders lose" is a myth... (im vague on the memory of being told that, so I'd be happy to be checked on that)

But for arguments sake, let's say 95% lose, are they losing because of risk management, are they losing because of their trading plan, their discipline or for any number of reasons other than their 2nd guessing skills.

Your job is to anticipate price action, in a structured, pre planned, risk managed & self controlled way. If you're wrong, then so be it... a boxer doesn't get into the ring expecting not to take a few punches, but whats going to get him out of that ring victorious is practicing his movemnt and preparing his strategy.

Move with the market in a tactical way, being counter intuitive can take on all sorts of meanings, one of them can be just keep it simple, most people are trying to make it more difficult than necessary. They think they need fancy algorithms, bad ass computers with 67 monitors and drones flying everywhere while they captain through their latest AI mind reader.

To make some money you just need to wait for the flow of money and dance along with your thought out footwork and if you trip up, get back up and wait for the next fight to come along.

[jamesg46]

Reckon these guys would smash manual trading...

https://youtu.be/lr_s3F44it4

[spreadbetting]

But don't 95% of traders lose...?

Think that stat was supposed to have come from Betfair that 95% of registered accounts lost, not just traders . Or maybe it was was 95% of traders lie?

[ShaunWhite]

my subjective view was most traders would see it as a backing opportunity, so I was playing the counter intuitive lay.

It's the punters you want to be 2nd guessing, the traders hopefully read it right

But don't 95% of traders lose...?

Even if 95% fail that doesn't mean 95% of people lose on any given day. 100% of people will die but 100% won't die today. And it doesn't have much to do with the money traded, if 95 people lose a pound and 5 people earn £19, or if one person loses £50 and another wins £50 the overall effect is the same.

I think you've gone from not thinking about it to massively over thinking it. Markets pick up the pace when the previous race finishes, that's pretty much all you need to trouble yourself with for now.

[LinusP]

But don't 95% of traders lose...?

Think that stat was supposed to have come from Betfair that 95% of registered accounts lost, not just traders . Or maybe it was was 95% of traders lie?

It's about 25% in profit over a year.

[spreadbetting]

That's a lot higher than I'd have imagined, goes to show how easy it is to win on the exchanges with near 100% books.

[LinusP]

That's a lot higher than I'd have imagined, goes to show how easy it is to win on the exchanges with near 100% books.

Profit over £1k and drops to around 8%

[ShaunWhite]

It's about 25% in profit over a year.

Rising to 50% on any given bet

Screenshot_5.png

[spreadbetting]

That's a lot higher than I'd have imagined, goes to show how easy it is to win on the exchanges with near 100% books.

Profit over £1k and drops to around 8%

That's even more impressive considering the amount of accounts they must have. Where did you get the stats from LinusP?