Trading on Betfair for a living
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SamWilson82
- Posts: 95
- Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 11:23 am
Traders will "spend" a lot of turnover probing markets and scratching positions which will have a big effect on R.O.I over the course of a day.
mugsgame wrote:
Try to be more selective about which races to trade.I know of many who go from race to race like a loony. You can make a few quid race after race and on the last race lose the whole days earnings and some. Look at trading less races that have a good "shape". If you have the patience (which is the most important and most overlooked aspect of trading IMHO) you can watch 20 races and then trade 1 and win a days wages.
A suggestion for those struggling is maybe find a race where the market thinks it is a 2 horse race.
Thanks for the interesting comments mugsgame! I'm definitely going to try to be much more selective about what I bet on from now on.
As to picking the 2-horse races, I tried it yesterday and lost a bundle as usual I'm afraid. Picking those damn price shifts using only indictors I just continue to find horribly frustrating. Here's what happened to me yesterday:
The 2-horse race I picked was the 15:15 at Lingfield. There were 2 horses dominating the book at roughly equal odds to start with (3.00), 'Go Maggie Go' and 'Juarla'.
With only a few minutes to go and heavy volume, all indicators (WOM etc) were pointing to 'Go Maggie Go', it was steaming strongly with a big price shift whilst 'Juarla' was drifting hugely. Naturally I unloaded on 'Go Maggie Go'.
Past the advertisted start time and with less than a minue to go, suddenly and with-out any warning the price directions switched completely. 'Go Maggie Go' suddenly and drastically switched direction, as did 'Jauarla'. Literally within seconds, 'Juarla' become the favourite at $2.25, and the price crashed through the floor boards, whereas as the price of 'Go Maggie Go' spiked out to $3.70. Even reacting as fast I could, I lost a bundle - I want to emphasize again there was absolutely no warning of such a drastic price switch and all indicators (WOM etc) were pointing in the opposite direction right until the final few seconds.
That's why I think picking price shifts without any knowledge of form seems like a hopeless crap shoot a lot of the time.
If it's any comfort I get caught like this quite often. Sometimes it goes the other way though. The only way to definately avoid it is to close out earlier. It seems there is often a panic and unexpected move in the final moments before the off.Zenyatta wrote:Past the advertisted start time and with less than a minue to go, suddenly and with-out any warning the price directions switched completely.
Sorry to hear about your loss Z,Zenyatta wrote:With only a few minutes to go and heavy volume, all indicators (WOM etc) were pointing to 'Go Maggie Go', it was steaming strongly with a big price shift whilst 'Juarla' was drifting hugely. Naturally I unloaded on 'Go Maggie Go'.
however, you are halfway there! There was a big move in the market, ok so it went against you, but at least you identified a market where a big move happened. With practice and patience it will happen for you.
What I would say is I don't get "hung up" on WOM. As you rightly pointed out this can spin around in an instant. Look more closely at where the resistance points for each horse are. When a horse is on the drift it often gets to a point that is just too big and becomes good value to back, it can soon change direction.
I think identifying the direction of a trade is not the hardest part, knowing when to trade out is the bit that I get wrong often.
Keep at it my friend,this trading lark is a dark art, it is easier to learn witchcraft (my ex wife is a witch).
This has been a fascinating thread, and thanks to all those who have offered some really useful information and comments.
I am not a professional trader, nor do I make my living from trading - yet, and I only started playing with BA a little less than two years ago. Last year i did the course, which I really enjoyed, and since then ... well not too much. The demands of a young family, work and so on has not made it easy to trade when i want (mostly the horses) coupled with the expected losses and mistakes. It can be very disheartening when you bankroll halves in front of your eyes in the space of a few minutes. Yes the old addage that you must lose before you can win has knocked on my door.
I am perfectly aware that I will not become a super trader within the next two years, but I can envision that my trading could become 20-30% of my income if I keep working hard at it. I can work in the mornings (I am a freelance EFL teacher) and keep my afternoons and evening free to trade. I also live in continental Europe and i feel that the time difference is hugely beneficial to me as everything starts later in the day for me. Of course I did go through a period when I believed this could be the road to untold riches, but I am much more pragmatic now and I am playing the long game.
There have been several re-occurring themes and pointers that I have heard many times before (and not only in trading circles) that are finally making sense to me and have led me to know and understand myself better too. Some of these are: keep things simple; patience is truly a virtue; when you find something that works, stick with it, and try to master it; and keep good records.
I am not a professional trader, nor do I make my living from trading - yet, and I only started playing with BA a little less than two years ago. Last year i did the course, which I really enjoyed, and since then ... well not too much. The demands of a young family, work and so on has not made it easy to trade when i want (mostly the horses) coupled with the expected losses and mistakes. It can be very disheartening when you bankroll halves in front of your eyes in the space of a few minutes. Yes the old addage that you must lose before you can win has knocked on my door.
I am perfectly aware that I will not become a super trader within the next two years, but I can envision that my trading could become 20-30% of my income if I keep working hard at it. I can work in the mornings (I am a freelance EFL teacher) and keep my afternoons and evening free to trade. I also live in continental Europe and i feel that the time difference is hugely beneficial to me as everything starts later in the day for me. Of course I did go through a period when I believed this could be the road to untold riches, but I am much more pragmatic now and I am playing the long game.
There have been several re-occurring themes and pointers that I have heard many times before (and not only in trading circles) that are finally making sense to me and have led me to know and understand myself better too. Some of these are: keep things simple; patience is truly a virtue; when you find something that works, stick with it, and try to master it; and keep good records.
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Sunnyclimes
- Posts: 17
- Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2010 1:28 pm
To all contributors to this discussion,
Many thanks for the openess and honesty in this discussion; it has been a really great help to me, as a newbie to Betfair / Bet Angel.
I aspire to making a living by sports trading, but have soon realised that there is no short cut to it.
My strategy is therefore as follows:
Trade with small stakes
Find the best ways to trade, then practice and refine.
Treat my Betfair account as a high interest savings account, not as a source of income, in the first instance.
As I become more proficient very slowly increase the stakes to see if it is possible to replicate winning strategies on a larger scale, or whether new strategies are needed for larger sums.
I have enrolled in the course and, hopefully, this will help accelerate my learning and help me avoid expensive mistakes (I've made some already, but none have been so bad that they have put me off).
Once again, many thanks for your help.
Regards,
Sunnyclimes
Many thanks for the openess and honesty in this discussion; it has been a really great help to me, as a newbie to Betfair / Bet Angel.
I aspire to making a living by sports trading, but have soon realised that there is no short cut to it.
My strategy is therefore as follows:
Trade with small stakes
Find the best ways to trade, then practice and refine.
Treat my Betfair account as a high interest savings account, not as a source of income, in the first instance.
As I become more proficient very slowly increase the stakes to see if it is possible to replicate winning strategies on a larger scale, or whether new strategies are needed for larger sums.
I have enrolled in the course and, hopefully, this will help accelerate my learning and help me avoid expensive mistakes (I've made some already, but none have been so bad that they have put me off).
Once again, many thanks for your help.
Regards,
Sunnyclimes
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
Great thread.
Here’s my short story for what it's worth.
Voluntary redundancy from a good job (financially) in 09 but then realised I didn’t have a clue what to do next.
I've always been a bit of a gambler and joined Betfair in the very early days. I knew that sports trading existed so thought I’d give it a go.
I paid my tuition fees to the market (including a small fortune of in-play losses) and it took me nearly a year to get consistently profitable. I had some dark days in the first 6 months or so, and I often wished I had my old job back (and a few girls in the office!).
I make a decent living on the nags now, but if I had my time again I’m not sure if I’d put myself through it.
I’m currently trying to make the crossover into futures trading. I’ve started threads on here, but no interest. I’m not sure why, transaction costs aren’t the barrier many seem to think – but choose your broker wisely - and the infrastructure and software is fantastic. The reason I’m doing futures is that I want to progress as a trader, it's my only real skill now, and because I’m uncertain about the future of racing and sports trading.
I don't regret changing careers - the worst thing about proper jobs these days is the some of the poeple you end up having to work for (and that in many big companies it's only the brown-nosers that get on).
Please join my campaign for a 4th ladder in BA Pro!... viewtopic.php?f=20&t=3609
Here’s my short story for what it's worth.
Voluntary redundancy from a good job (financially) in 09 but then realised I didn’t have a clue what to do next.
I've always been a bit of a gambler and joined Betfair in the very early days. I knew that sports trading existed so thought I’d give it a go.
I paid my tuition fees to the market (including a small fortune of in-play losses) and it took me nearly a year to get consistently profitable. I had some dark days in the first 6 months or so, and I often wished I had my old job back (and a few girls in the office!).
I make a decent living on the nags now, but if I had my time again I’m not sure if I’d put myself through it.
I’m currently trying to make the crossover into futures trading. I’ve started threads on here, but no interest. I’m not sure why, transaction costs aren’t the barrier many seem to think – but choose your broker wisely - and the infrastructure and software is fantastic. The reason I’m doing futures is that I want to progress as a trader, it's my only real skill now, and because I’m uncertain about the future of racing and sports trading.
I don't regret changing careers - the worst thing about proper jobs these days is the some of the poeple you end up having to work for (and that in many big companies it's only the brown-nosers that get on).
Please join my campaign for a 4th ladder in BA Pro!... viewtopic.php?f=20&t=3609
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Nero Tulip
- Posts: 709
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
One of the best threads on the forum, if not the best. I haven't had chance to read all of it yet, but there's some great advice being pushed by some knowledgeable people here.
My story is I got in at the right time. My Betfair account was opened September 2001, I discovered trading soon after when things were relatively simple. I never got into horse racing trading, to me the price movements were too small, and too much based on (reliant) supply and demand and therefore at the whim of whoever wanted to really move the price.
I got into two way sports markets and also FTSE up or down (slightly contradictory of the above I know). Anything One v One was my bag, I traded both on match momentum and straight market making plus some very large arbitrage which for some 6-8 months around 2004 netted me 20-30k a month. Probably the easiest money I've ever made on Betfair, apart from the bots I have gambling on my behalf.
Really, I was lucky to find this, I was at the right stage in my life too. I had no overheads, I was young (still am, though this life is draining the soul out of me like others) and I had no responsibilities and a job that paid extremely poorly (though it was still a big deal to give up work).
It's a very different game these days. You are up against some incredibly efficient people, and some that are making vast sums of money. I find it difficult to believe that there are many folks making a very decent living trading back and forth on horses (or anything for that matter). They might get by and have a little extra to spend, but to exceed this needs some other ideas and more risk IMO, and that's not easy to get into as a low variance loving trader as most are.
Then again, there are some for whom that trading earns them all they could be happy with, and that's fair enough. My own attitude is that I really don't want to do this for a long time. As others have said, it does suck the life out of you, it's easy to lose track of time, friendships, relationships, fresh air and real life! This is not a particularly good karma existence. I am very lucky to have made and still make enough to give up and not really have to do anything, but if I wasn't in this position, I'd give some serious thought to finding some work so that I can begin to live life a little more fuller.
Anyone considering doing this now must make sure they are happy with the consequences to their CV and the amount of time out of work that it'll contain. You should never underestimate this.
Great reading guys.
My story is I got in at the right time. My Betfair account was opened September 2001, I discovered trading soon after when things were relatively simple. I never got into horse racing trading, to me the price movements were too small, and too much based on (reliant) supply and demand and therefore at the whim of whoever wanted to really move the price.
I got into two way sports markets and also FTSE up or down (slightly contradictory of the above I know). Anything One v One was my bag, I traded both on match momentum and straight market making plus some very large arbitrage which for some 6-8 months around 2004 netted me 20-30k a month. Probably the easiest money I've ever made on Betfair, apart from the bots I have gambling on my behalf.
Really, I was lucky to find this, I was at the right stage in my life too. I had no overheads, I was young (still am, though this life is draining the soul out of me like others) and I had no responsibilities and a job that paid extremely poorly (though it was still a big deal to give up work).
It's a very different game these days. You are up against some incredibly efficient people, and some that are making vast sums of money. I find it difficult to believe that there are many folks making a very decent living trading back and forth on horses (or anything for that matter). They might get by and have a little extra to spend, but to exceed this needs some other ideas and more risk IMO, and that's not easy to get into as a low variance loving trader as most are.
Then again, there are some for whom that trading earns them all they could be happy with, and that's fair enough. My own attitude is that I really don't want to do this for a long time. As others have said, it does suck the life out of you, it's easy to lose track of time, friendships, relationships, fresh air and real life! This is not a particularly good karma existence. I am very lucky to have made and still make enough to give up and not really have to do anything, but if I wasn't in this position, I'd give some serious thought to finding some work so that I can begin to live life a little more fuller.
Anyone considering doing this now must make sure they are happy with the consequences to their CV and the amount of time out of work that it'll contain. You should never underestimate this.
Great reading guys.
It does carry risks.
But an enlightened employer would think 'There were few opportunities out there in the economy, so this guy made his own opportunity. Good on him. Our company needs people with that kind of initiative and self-belief."
Jeff
But an enlightened employer would think 'There were few opportunities out there in the economy, so this guy made his own opportunity. Good on him. Our company needs people with that kind of initiative and self-belief."
Jeff
Nero Tulip wrote:
Anyone considering doing this now must make sure they are happy with the consequences to their CV and the amount of time out of work that it'll contain. You should never underestimate this.
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Nero Tulip
- Posts: 709
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
I'm sure that is what a minority of employers might think Jeff, and certainly there will be jobs out there where our experience trading would be viewed as interesting. For the majority of people though, the prospect of going and getting these jobs is pretty low. Realistically, you need to weigh this up and not underestimate it.. In other words, widen your margin on that.
After leaving the office day job in local government 3.5 years ago and going on Peter's course decided to try and go full time as a trader. First 6 months showed no sort of profit but then slowly it started coming together. A patience and supporting partner is very important. It now pays the bills mortgage and leaves some beer money. 
Now run a successful football trading site with business partner with over 180 members and life is pretty good.
Now run a successful football trading site with business partner with over 180 members and life is pretty good.
Hi,
Really good thread! I've been thinking about going full time for a while, but this has given me lots to think about.
I also wondered how confident people are that they will be still be able to trade in 5-10 years time. Impossible to predict I know, but I suppose what I'm asking is how confident people are in Betfair still providing the platform. At the end of the day, you're reliant on one company (more or less). This is the main thing thats stopping me giving full time trading a go. I don't see any reason why Betfair wouldn't be around but anything's possible I suppose. I just wondered how people who are full time felt about this?
Paul.
Really good thread! I've been thinking about going full time for a while, but this has given me lots to think about.
I also wondered how confident people are that they will be still be able to trade in 5-10 years time. Impossible to predict I know, but I suppose what I'm asking is how confident people are in Betfair still providing the platform. At the end of the day, you're reliant on one company (more or less). This is the main thing thats stopping me giving full time trading a go. I don't see any reason why Betfair wouldn't be around but anything's possible I suppose. I just wondered how people who are full time felt about this?
Paul.