Today's Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Alisson likely to be out for 6 weeks according to Klopp, that's scary!
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Kafkaesque
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Kai wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:20 pm

This football without fans experiment is a bit more random than usual, isn't it? :D
Don't know if it is, really. My models for pre-match are showing near enough the same tendencies and results, as they were pre-lockdown/with fans. The outliers are, at best, a bit more common. Not by much though. It's just that they're more extreme, when they happen. Liverpool are still a team of human beings, and they could just as easily have had an off-day in more "normal" circumstances. In those, it would more likely have been a gritty 1-0 or 2-1 to Villa.

As someone who works 95%+ with asian handicaps pre in terms of betting, it matters zero percent if it's 1-0 or 7-2, given that Villa were +1.25 goals. Within that framework there's not a great deal of difference this year in the unpredictability or randomness imho.

There's a degree of confirmation bias - towards saying it's because of the current climate and situation. Plenty of instances of top, top teams needing a fair few rounds to kick into highest gear. I feel Liverpool's all-conquering style last season, Liverpool and City's dominance two seasons ago, and the dominance by Bayern, Juve, and PSG in recent years have clouded people's judgement of what a normal football season should be. Also plenty of instances of not so great teams coming out firing and dropping like a rock. Norwich looked pretty darn good early last season. Their 3-1 over City was probably as shocking as Villa last night. There just wasn't a "current situation" to pin it on.

All in all, very exploitable if you know where to look imo :D


Kai wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:20 pm
But is it me or is the chemistry between Kane and Son out of this world recently?
It truly does. I might have to crawl down from my Mourinho is killing the joy stance. The squad seem to lapping up the Mourinho kool aid.

Kane and Son always had it in them, and it might be a Joe Cole effect. Mourinho made Cole a less exciting player to be sure, but also made him a more efficient and succesful one. There's always been a sense for me, that Kane felt he needed to carry the team and score all the goals, but as he's shown with England, he's always had it in him to be a more well-rounded leader of the attack. Mourinho has somehow brought it out in both of them to abandon the look-for-the-shot-first-every-single-time attitude.

Having Bale waiting in the wings probably helps. Also, people primarily following English football likely do not know how high the ceiling is for Ndombele. If he fixes his concentration levels and continues to improve decision making, he'll be out of this world behind Bale/Son/Kane. Think I've said it before, but he's typecast based on looks as a Makelele-type. He needs a ponytail and name ending in -dinho for the world to see the player he is :)

Meanwhile, I'll also be curious to see if Alli under Mourinho will become the next Joe Cole or Salah/De Bruyne :?
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Kai
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Kafkaesque wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:53 pm
There's a degree of confirmation bias - towards saying it's because of the current climate and situation. Plenty of instances of top, top teams needing a fair few rounds to kick into highest gear.
Semi joking, although I did heavily criticize Liverpool's defending a few weeks ago, and think it goes all the way back to the restart last season, gets more obvious if you intensely watch every Liverpool game. My full opinion would be a bit more complex for a casual forum post, particularly in Liverpool's case where the crowd is a part of their pressing system and some of their audio cues serve as triggers, and the players feed off this energy as well just as much as fans, but in short I think it's hard to generate proper intensity without the crowd, especially if a large chunk of your gameplan depends on it. Klopp said it himself yesterday I think, reason why they went through on goal so many times is because nobody put any pressure on the ball.

There's a popular saying/motto within the club that Klopp and the other coaches regularly use, "Our identity is intensity." No intensity for me also means casual basic mistakes are more likely to creep up as well, for most teams and players, although Adrian made all the same mistakes last season as well but the team still won every single prem game he played whilst Allison was injured. So we all knew he was shit beforehand, but you can't mount a serious comeback without intensity, Villa were too good on the day to allow that.
Kai wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:20 pm
Kane and Son always had it in them
Well, If you say so. But I'm not so sure, the level of chemistry between them has been quite unusual and almost unnatural at times. For me this can mean only one thing and I'm too afraid to say it out loud!
greenmark
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The reason Liverpool lost is Villa were 'on it'. Liverpool appeared to have had a pre-international break jolly. Never seen a Liverpool performance like that in my life. Physically and mentally awful. Hope this isnt a pointer to the future. Won one Premiership then dissolve. No disrespect to Villa. Villa were ruthless.
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wearthefoxhat
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Update on penalties in the Premier league.

PremierL Pens.jpg
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LeTiss
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21 matches in the EFL Trophy tonight.......every single match had Over 1.5 goals

Betfair Sportsbook were offering odds of 33/1 on that!
Good night for goals backers
NickH
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In general been a good season so far for goal backers I believe, also with the increase in penalties.
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Derek27
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England U21s 1.02 to beat Andorra. :)
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Kai
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:33 pm
England U21s 1.02 to beat Andorra. :)
That's about two ticks too high for me :)
NickH
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:33 pm
England U21s 1.02 to beat Andorra. :)
So.... :D
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Derek27
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Location: UK

When you're new to football you have to look at all types of markets. :)
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Derek27
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Kai wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:02 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:33 pm
England U21s 1.02 to beat Andorra. :)
That's about two ticks too high for me :)
3-3 draw. :lol:
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Kai
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:09 pm
Kai wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:02 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:33 pm
England U21s 1.02 to beat Andorra. :)
That's about two ticks too high for me :)
3-3 draw. :lol:
:lol:
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Every day's a day at school. Had a go at scalping the over/under 0.5 market. Won't be returning in a hurry. Was a bit taken back by how fast it accelerates into the second half. :)
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Derek27
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There's a Chilian commentator with a stammer. He called a penal, penal, penal, penal, penal, penal, penal, penal, penalty! :)
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