Today's Horse Racing
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
I did consider that it might be you if I'm honest! 
I played around yesterday with putting a few smaller orders in the market on more runners and caught a few big moves but also a few went against me, in the end it balanced itself out. Very very random though.
If it's XM might just be the new normal that we have to work around.
I played around yesterday with putting a few smaller orders in the market on more runners and caught a few big moves but also a few went against me, in the end it balanced itself out. Very very random though.
If it's XM might just be the new normal that we have to work around.
My entry point is fairly random. I actually monitor in via automation to see if I have an unconscious pattern.
On days like today, I'm likely to arrive very late as the volume just isn't there for larger stakes early on.
If somebody places a market-distorting order, then XM will kick in to correct it. I bloody hate XM as a result. No reason why an order somewhere should distort other prices, but it does.
On days like today, I'm likely to arrive very late as the volume just isn't there for larger stakes early on.
If somebody places a market-distorting order, then XM will kick in to correct it. I bloody hate XM as a result. No reason why an order somewhere should distort other prices, but it does.
, time for 
I'm pretty sure we've always had these spikes, often occurring around 4:30 before the off. I assumed it was perhaps a bookie balancing his book or maybe XM. So I took a look back through some of my old videos and it does seem to be a regular daily occurrence.
At the same meeting in Oct 2017...
13:50 Newmarket. At 4:44 large spike on the fav Kew Gardens going from 2.48 out to 2.66 while the 2nd fav Dee Ex Bee spiked from 5.6 to 5.1
14:25 Newmarket. At 4:31 a spike dropped the fav Purser from 3.85 to 3.6
Sometimes at the lower class midweek meetings you can almost set your watch by the 4:30 spike! These tend to be much larger, as I guess there's less money stacked up waiting to be taken. On Tues 1st Sept 2020 in the 16:25 Newton Abbot Maiden, at 4:25 a spike took the fav from 2.86 down to 2.54 while the 2nd fave spiked out from 3.35 to 3.85.
A few races later in the 16:50 1m4f Hcap at Kempton at 4:09 The fav Arabian Warrior spiked from 3.15 out to 3.7 from a £7k lay.
These are only a few examples from video clips I happen to have lying around so it looks like it probably happens more often than we think.
At the same meeting in Oct 2017...
13:50 Newmarket. At 4:44 large spike on the fav Kew Gardens going from 2.48 out to 2.66 while the 2nd fav Dee Ex Bee spiked from 5.6 to 5.1
14:25 Newmarket. At 4:31 a spike dropped the fav Purser from 3.85 to 3.6
Sometimes at the lower class midweek meetings you can almost set your watch by the 4:30 spike! These tend to be much larger, as I guess there's less money stacked up waiting to be taken. On Tues 1st Sept 2020 in the 16:25 Newton Abbot Maiden, at 4:25 a spike took the fav from 2.86 down to 2.54 while the 2nd fave spiked out from 3.35 to 3.85.
A few races later in the 16:50 1m4f Hcap at Kempton at 4:09 The fav Arabian Warrior spiked from 3.15 out to 3.7 from a £7k lay.
These are only a few examples from video clips I happen to have lying around so it looks like it probably happens more often than we think.
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
Its the timing that's odd, why always around that time?
I guess we'll never know
I guess we'll never know
Yeah, I’ve got data from over the past few years with this same activity going on from time to time, usually between 5 and 4 mins.
I spent quite a lot of time going through it all back then, trying to come up with some pattern as to how and why it happens but I couldn’t find anything solid.
Might take another look now it’s happening regularly again
It definitely looks to me like XM in thin markets, i mentioned earlier on in the thread that the markets weren't absorbing it well. This though is extra, its persistent. I've never seen it like this. I've even seen it on some of the better quality races where money is flowing sooner into the market, which is strange imo.
Whatever it is, I've had enough of it and ill stop out of the way. I'll trade as close to post as possible, anything else is just too risky.
Whatever it is, I've had enough of it and ill stop out of the way. I'll trade as close to post as possible, anything else is just too risky.
Agreed. However the media seem hell bent on 'reporting' us back into lockdown. The racecourses desperately need customer attendences not to mention the problems all industries face. The government seem to be trying to find a way to keep the country going without going into the kind of nationwide lockdown we had in the spring but the constant media pressure is there. What's worrying is the effects of winter can effectively last until April. It would be nice rather than the reporting of constant doom and gloom to report from time to time on what is going on with the vaccine research. Give the people some hope.
in the *old days*, it used to be very nice to see the OC bookies balance their books around the 7-8min PRE mark. with a strong fave, this was almost like free money (as the fave would spike out and then come back in). i think it's time to start looking for new patterns, we've now got 6 months clean data on the *new* situation - something i plan on reviewing in the next few weeks!!