US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
Post Reply
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

jameegray1 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:39 pm
It's clearly her.

Getting seriously worried about the amount of conspiracy crap floating around social media now. It's getting stoked by the gutter media too as it's driving them clicks.

The world is getting more depressing day by day.
I agree, so much total garbage out there on a daily basis being stoked up by people looking for attention for one reason or another and people seem to fall for it!

People seem to have forgotten how to live and get on.
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

A couple of days and it will have surpassed the turnover from the 2016 election - think it will hold the record for being the biggest market ever for a long time
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Naffman wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:08 am
A couple of days and it will have surpassed the turnover from the 2016 election - think it will hold the record for being the biggest market ever for a long time
Y, not far short and if there are any reversals on the night then it will blow away the previous total. It's curious how it's stuck in a range though.
User avatar
megarain
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
Contact:

Trump 3.0

Biden 1.5

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

They project Biden wins 87/100 times, which makes 1.5 decent value.

As a Pro Gambler, I think u have to back Biden at this price - with whatever portion of Kelly u use.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

megarain wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:53 am
Trump 3.0

Biden 1.5

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

They project Biden wins 87/100 times, which makes 1.5 decent value.

As a Pro Gambler, I think u have to back Biden at this price - with whatever portion of Kelly u use.
Agreed that price is starting to look good, people seem to be willfully ignorant on how the Electoral College works.

Biden has more paths to victory than the Donald, if Trump loses Florida or Georgia its game over and at the minute they're both toss ups.

I think there's value to be had in the Electoral College votes market. I've moved some of my comedy green on Trump in the outright market to the Trump 150-179, 180-209 & 210-239 markets.
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Rasmussen today must be the first poll in a long time to have Trump ahead (48-47) in the popular vote

Also heard Biden has called a lid on all in-person rallies, quite amazing.
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

If you want to look at the early data numbers per state then check out - electproject - problem is a lot of states don't differentiate between mail in and early voting as well as party registration but the swing states that do are Florida, North Carolina and Nevada.

Democrats usually vote earlier but I imagine a lot of Republicans will be voting in-person (not by mail) earlier too due to covid and the seemingly huge lines.
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Texas early voting through the roof, Paul Motty wanking into his sock thinking that's a Dem win because of the turnout yet Trump got the most Texan votes in 2016 of any candidate ever so yeah ok.

Florida daily early voting numbers are out, Dems were out voting Republicans by 350,000 yesterday, now it's only 300,000 and with a week left Biden looks screwed imo unless he can get the independent vote.
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

I wouldn’t worry about the election result. The bigger news is the Supreme Court appointment going through which will have lasting consequences for the USA regardless of who the president actually is or is not.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Archery1969 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:05 pm
I wouldn’t worry about the election result. The bigger news is the Supreme Court appointment going through which will have lasting consequences for the USA regardless of who the president actually is or is not.
When Sky News reported that Amy has been confirmed, I thought they were going to say "with Covid-19". :)

She was at the super-spreader event so she's lucky to have avoided it.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:05 pm
I wouldn’t worry about the election result. The bigger news is the Supreme Court appointment going through which will have lasting consequences for the USA regardless of who the president actually is or is not.
Be interesting to see if Biden wins whether or not he packs the court
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:11 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:05 pm
I wouldn’t worry about the election result. The bigger news is the Supreme Court appointment going through which will have lasting consequences for the USA regardless of who the president actually is or is not.
Be interesting to see if Biden wins whether or not he packs the court
Packs the court, what do you mean, they are appointed for life, its a done deal ?
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:13 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:11 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:05 pm
I wouldn’t worry about the election result. The bigger news is the Supreme Court appointment going through which will have lasting consequences for the USA regardless of who the president actually is or is not.
Be interesting to see if Biden wins whether or not he packs the court
Packs the court, what do you mean, they are appointed for life, its a done deal ?
Yeah the 9 current justices are there for life, but if Biden wins he could choose to 'pack the court' i.e add more justices. So he could theoretically add more justices to restore its 'ideological balance'.

There's nothing in the constitution that says anything about the number of justices the Supreme court has and its been done before. Plus Biden has refused to say he wont do it, the clearest answer he's given so far is that if he wins he'll convene a committee to examine judicial reforms.
User avatar
firlandsfarm
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:22 pm
Yeah the 9 current justices are there for life, but if Biden wins he could choose to 'pack the court' i.e add more justices. So he could theoretically add more justices to restore its 'ideological balance'.
The whole point by the Founding Fathers was to have an odd number so that the court can never be deadlocked ... it cannot be in balance ideologically or politically.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

firlandsfarm wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:53 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:22 pm
Yeah the 9 current justices are there for life, but if Biden wins he could choose to 'pack the court' i.e add more justices. So he could theoretically add more justices to restore its 'ideological balance'.
The whole point by the Founding Fathers was to have an odd number so that the court can never be deadlocked ... it cannot be in balance ideologically or politically.
The word 'pack' gives the impression of 30-40 judges but he only needs 11 or 13. He just makes sure the extra judges are Democrats. :)
Post Reply

Return to “Political betting & arguing”