US Presidential Election 2020

[Derek27]

...what if the result is disputed Derek and ends up in the courts...during which time there is a death?

That's my very point, if you're going to bet £300 you shouldn't assume the rules. It might be an idea next time to quote the rules in the first post of the thread. I'll leave you to chew over this:

Next President - Rules
Event Start Time
03 November 2020, 11:00
Win Only Market

MARKET INFORMATION

For further information please see Rules & Regs.

Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?

This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.

10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

Additional candidates may be added to this market on request.

Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market.

Customers should be aware that:

Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.

The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.


Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules. 16:00 17/06/2020 –Market rules have been updated to reflect new information above..

If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules (Updated - 20/06/2020)

[Derek27]

The quote below would at least put a doubt in my mind as to whether a death before inaugural day would have any effect.

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market.

[Tuco]

I do personally think there is room for alternative/differing interpretations of the quoted rules and in addition to both the 12th and 20th Amendments which could yet play a role in the outcome.

[Derek27]

I do personally think there is room for alternative/differing interpretations of the quoted rules and in addition to both the 12th and 20th Amendments which could yet play a role in the outcome.

This part's quite clear: Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

As I write Nigel Farage is sucking-up to Trump.

[Derek27]

This is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.

https://www.270towin.com/

[firlandsfarm]

...what if the result is disputed Derek and ends up in the courts...during which time there is a death?

Which? ... the US courts to decide who will be President or the UK courts to decide if Betfair have interpreted their rules fairly?!

[Naffman]

Betfair will probably settle the market the day after unless there is some uncertainty in the results

[gazuty]

Betfair will probably settle the market the day after unless there is some uncertainty in the results

The rules might be different this time around, but last time around I am sure they waited quite a while - maybe until the electoral college voted, maybe even up until inaugaration.

[wearthefoxhat]

Betfair will probably settle the market the day after unless there is some uncertainty in the results

The rules might be different this time around, but last time around I am sure they waited quite a while - maybe until the electoral college voted, maybe even up until inaugaration.

Not sure if this might impact the settlement dates.

USBallots.jpg

[ChrisF]

The Market should have been who wins the election vote or who becomes president elect not who becomes the next president, no matter, better luck next time. I don't see it as gambling my money anyway, It came out of my pot, I would never have gone into my wallet I bet on it. I will stick to horse racing where at least the market is titled correctly.

[Naffman]

The Market should have been who wins the election vote or who becomes president elect not who becomes the next president, no matter, better luck next time. I don't see it as gambling my money anyway, It came out of my pot, I would never have gone into my wallet I bet on it. I will stick to horse racing where at least the market is titled correctly.

If Biden wins I'm guessing they'll have a separate market if he'll be inaugurated in Jan

[Trader Pat]

This is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.

https://www.270towin.com/

When you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.

'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.

Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.

[Derek27]

The Market should have been who wins the election vote or who becomes president elect not who becomes the next president, no matter, better luck next time. I don't see it as gambling my money anyway, It came out of my pot, I would never have gone into my wallet I bet on it. I will stick to horse racing where at least the market is titled correctly.

If Biden wins I'm guessing they'll have a separate market if he'll be inaugurated in Jan

...but all bets will be voided if he dies.

If Biden becomes president, Harry Dunn's parents will step up calls for justice. And I bet Prince Andrew's rooting for another Trump term.

[Derek27]

This is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.

https://www.270towin.com/

When you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.

'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.

Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.

The US electoral system is far more complex than I realised. Didn't know anything about the second electoral college vote, split states and all the other complexities until now.

[Trader Pat]

This is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.

https://www.270towin.com/

When you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.

'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.

Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.

The US electoral system is far more complex than I realised. Didn't know anything about the second electoral college vote, split states and all the other complexities until now.

That's the problem its too complex.

I think splitting the Electoral College votes would be a much fairer way of doing it, rather than giving 100% of the votes to whatever candidate wins. At least people on both sides would know that your vote really does count towards something.

There's also a movement to abolish the Electoral College but only 15 states have signed up to it, think it needs a simple majority but won't happen anytime soon.