US Presidential Election 2020
Remember me, the one true Scotsman! ? Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!
I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
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I think the ghost of 2016 is haunting everyone, nobody wants to look dumb again by predicting a blow out for Biden. If the pollsters hadn't got it so wrong 4 years ago then Biden would be trading much lower.Zenyatta wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 amRemember me, the one true Scotsman! ? Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!
I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
Also the polls seem to be tightening so that will probably continue right up to election day and might bring Trump's price in.
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I think if Covid had never happened it obviously would have been much tougher for Biden but I still think it would have been close.
As it stands right now I'm weighted towards a blow out for Biden in the Electoral College markets.
Not getting involved in the market but I hope you're right and make a fortune out of it.Zenyatta wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 amRemember me, the one true Scotsman! ? Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!
I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
Trump reminds me of a guy who drank 15 pints, drove home at 80 mph in the pissing rain, spun off the road and crashed killing his passenger, got out of the car and claimed his passenger was driving, and when that failed his excuse was "It wasn't my fault, the wheel went over a puddle, I am a perfectly competent driver when I've had 15 pints".Trader Pat wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:00 pmI think if Covid had never happened it obviously would have been much tougher for Biden but I still think it would have been close.
As it stands right now I'm weighted towards a blow out for Biden in the Electoral College markets.
The only difference between the two is that one of them was considered a mentally deluded narcissist, the other was voted president of the United States!!
Take it you aren't a fanDerek27 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:23 pmTrump reminds me of a guy who drank 15 pints, drove home at 80 mph in the pissing rain, spun off the road and crashed killing his passenger, got out of the car and claimed his passenger was driving, and when that failed his excuse was "It wasn't my fault, the wheel went over a puddle, I am a perfectly competent driver when I've had 15 pints".Trader Pat wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:00 pmI think if Covid had never happened it obviously would have been much tougher for Biden but I still think it would have been close.
As it stands right now I'm weighted towards a blow out for Biden in the Electoral College markets.
The only difference between the two is that one of them was considered a mentally deluded narcissist, the other was voted president of the United States!!
Not that it really matters but I've been on the fence with who will win but I'm taking a punt on Trump with an absolute landslide of a victory.
Either way I'm just gonna grab some beers and snacks for election night, Joe Rogans podcast on one screen and CNN on another... who melts first, Alex Jones or a CNN host will be my entertainment for the night.
Either way I'm just gonna grab some beers and snacks for election night, Joe Rogans podcast on one screen and CNN on another... who melts first, Alex Jones or a CNN host will be my entertainment for the night.
Haven't gone anywhere have I?
I know early voting is hard to read especially with covid around but I've been saying it appears Biden is fucked in Florida
Last edited by Naffman on Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
jamesg46 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:39 pmNot that it really matters but I've been on the fence with who will win but I'm taking a punt on Trump with an absolute landslide of a victory.
Either way I'm just gonna grab some beers and snacks for election night, Joe Rogans podcast on one screen and CNN on another... who melts first, Alex Jones or a CNN host will be my entertainment for the night.
If you have so much trust in the polls, put your money where your mouth is, put your house on Biden I will trade live on election day, should be fun... I just hope I don't forget the date, hope Biden "Four more years of George, er, George, er" doesn't forget also...Zenyatta wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:18 amRemember me, the one true Scotsman! ? Just passing through, noticed the crazy Betfair prices on this market. Biden has consistency led in the polls all year, and maintains a lead in the popular vote of perhaps 8%. Even with the electoral college, Trump surely has a very low chance of winning at this point, only 11% according to Nate Silver, which sounds about right to me. But prices on Betfair give implied odds of 35% for Trump!
I think there's a lot of deluded Trump gamblers distorting the market, and you could make a decent sum by betting big on Biden.
ps... I was joking, don't bet your house
Not only in America, wherever you draw electoral boundaries then the system is bound to end up with anomolies. Even in single electorate proportionate systems there can outcomes where minorites combine together to frustate an almost majority.Trader Pat wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:16 amWhen you look at that map it really drives home how messed up the American voting system is.Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:27 amThis is a pretty good electoral map. It allows you to colour your own states and do your what-ifs.
https://www.270towin.com/
'One person, one vote' is a fallacy in that country. If you're a California Republican or a Texas Democrat you're vote is essentially useless.
Only in America could one candidate get more votes than the other and still lose an election, so much for 'Will of the People'.
If the US presidental election were reduced to a pure popular vote then California, the East Coast and the mid North would rule the outcome (with a nod to Texas) and the complaint would be the voters in interior have little influence and hence their concerns would be forgotten. There are of course some States pushing a system based on the popular vote where if States representing 270 or more electoral college votes sign up, then there would be a system in those States of guaranteeing the outcome on the popular vote by directing their electoral college delegates to vote in accordance with the popular vote regardless of the State vote.
First female prime ministers in both Australia and NZ both "lost" elections but managed to pull together parliamentary majorities out of narrow losses to overturn the popular vote.
Most lower house parliaments tend towards a system of having equal numbers of constituents per seat. But upper houses things get wild. The US with its 2 senators per state is moving towards a very skewed outcome. In Australia, it is easier to get elected to the Federal Senate in Tasmania than win a council seat in some of the larger Sydney councils. (I am not familiar with Irish politics but the upper house doesn’t look very representative from a quick overview - can you discuss the Irish system?).
The electoral college does give a greater voice to the interior in the US in a way that the founding fathers would probably approve of.
Last edited by gazuty on Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:34 am, edited 1 time in total.