Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

There's a 100 pages in this thread now, tons of good advice but the whole approach to me looking from the outside in is random. You need to know how to make money in a market to start to understand how you need to improve. Just opening trades over and over again and feeling positive when they're green and negative when they're red just isn't getting anywhere. I know it's hard but i think less time randomly trading and more time researching, delving deeper will pay dividends. I've seen posts saying to just keep on trading - for two years at least, for 8,000 markets. Is this right? I can't imagine this is an efficient use of time.

Like Morbius I play poker, the approach seems equivalent to the poker player playing 12 tables for hours on end hoping that experience will make him play better. It won't. He should play two tables max and think through every decision in as much depth as he can. When he hits a spot where he doesn't know the correct decision he should take this away from the tables and work on this until he understands what's going on. In poker and trading my approach is to focus on what I don't know and to work on that and practice until I do. If I stick a stake in without a plan and end up in green, then that's no good for me, it's random. I need to know where the money is made and that's where I'll work. In poker I study and realise my check back range is unbalanced, so I focus on improving this, in trading I study and recognise recurring scenarios and I step back and think about how I might exploit that. The point is the work is in the study and thinking, not playing mindlessly or opening trades just because a race/match is on.

And this relates to stake as well. I get the idea about meaningful stakes but actually you're learning. The money doesn't matter. If I spot a recurring situation on the ladder I think I can exploit then my practice might involve using 2 quid stakes to get a better feel for things and to record my results. This phase has nothing to do with making money, it's about testing out what I've been working on away from trading. When I have a spot where I know I'm playing well then I'm out of the learning phase and can trade with my usual stakes.

I wish you the best of luck I really do, but I think focus on working smarter and not harder and reflect on how you best use your time so you don't end up two years down the line and doing the same thing.

You're right of course...
I think I said a while back if I've made no significant progress by Christmas, I'm giving up.... For the very reason you state.
I'll try and be smarter

[goat68]

And I think my entries are dire... I just backed Jacattack in Newcastle 18:15 at 6.8 as I thought it was breaking out if it's range, within a second it was at 8, and then 11 !!!

One of my rules I got from a penny stock trader (Tony Ivanov), he said he always tries to trade into strength, which I take to mean "who else is going to support my position?".

I rarely back, but if I did, 6.8 wouldn't appeal to me, because outside of festivals, there's little strength at these prices. It's a high risk back or lay, because there's no money to hold the price either way and a few big bets can send the price out 10 ticks. The only time I'd consider it is on a horse I know very well, in a feature race or major meeting. I guess if the 1st and 2nd fav were drifting heavily, it could precipitate a gamble (maybe with a strong down trend on the chart to support), but that's rare outside of Irish races or the backend of a card.

If I did take a punt at those prices, I'd be using pennies, relatively speaking.

On the other hand, if a strong fav or 2nd fav drifts in an otherwise weak market (there were two under 5 in this market? I didn't trade it), your back bet will get more support. The problem is getting in before the horde

Would you say the same at 5.8 ?

[goat68]

Of course by Christmas I'll have all the knowledge to go and setup my YouTube channel and make my millions

GoatTV

[darchas]

Of course by Christmas I'll have all the knowledge to go and setup my YouTube channel and make my millions

GoatTV

You'll definitely have a few subs right out of the gate given all the posts in this thread!

[darchas]

While the second method is not conducive to advancing your game, the only real advantage to playing better poker is toplay higher levels but as we saw, that becomes very difficult to do from say 2006 onwards so most professionals were multi-tabling at lower levels just amassing volume and getting player points/rakeback on top.

Not a perfect analogy I agree, however the point stands that increasing volume without a solid underlying strategy is detrimental to long term development.

And in your example above what happened was those same mass-multi-tabling regs found themselves falling further and further behind as they got caught up in the rakeback grind, the game moved on and they couldn't move with it so had to drop lower and lower. There are regs out there that have adapted, put in the off the table work, moved with the times and are still making good money.

On a separate note, there can't be too many topics left now that this thread hasn't touched on at some point!!

[goat68]

HI
yes i do use level stakes, i didnt really think about changing them as i use quite small stakes anyway, but what you're saying does make sense, and something i'll have a go it this week i think

I'm going to watch some videos tonight (), then tomorrow I'm going to concentrate on one thing, finding reversals only.
Want to join in tomorrow Bubace?

I'll give anything a go

How are you doing Bubace?
I'm doing well so far, just traded over last hour, 6 markets, only 1 loss, reduced to £25 stakes, currently +£7.30 for the day

[Morbius]

While the second method is not conducive to advancing your game, the only real advantage to playing better poker is toplay higher levels but as we saw, that becomes very difficult to do from say 2006 onwards so most professionals were multi-tabling at lower levels just amassing volume and getting player points/rakeback on top.

Not a perfect analogy I agree, however the point stands that increasing volume without a solid underlying strategy is detrimental to long term development.

And in your example above what happened was those same mass-multi-tabling regs found themselves falling further and further behind as they got caught up in the rakeback grind, the game moved on and they couldn't move with it so had to drop lower and lower. There are regs out there that have adapted, put in the off the table work, moved with the times and are still making good money.

On a separate note, there can't be too many topics left now that this thread hasn't touched on at some point!!

Onto page 102, there was no way this thread was ever going to stay 100% on track

My apologies Darchas for being finicky with your analogy, nobody uses more analogies than me so I know that no analogy is ever perfect.

You are totally right of course and the core point you were making cannot be argued against and I wasn't. It's exactly the same with basic scalping which is a trading comparison. Too many people grinding profits doing the same thing with little depth to their own knowledge and not taking the time to advance it and that route doesn't end well. Anyone that has experience or has travelled that road before knows how that "movie ends".

As for my own poker journey, I was one of the players that got coached and advanced my single table game to a much higher level including switching to playing live games...plus it got me away from the screens more. For all the players who weren't Galfond/Dwan/Ivey/Dang and killing the nosebleeds etc then it was the best and easiest way to make very good money for a while and pack your crap job in

[Bubace]

I'm going to watch some videos tonight (), then tomorrow I'm going to concentrate on one thing, finding reversals only.
Want to join in tomorrow Bubace?

I'll give anything a go

How are you doing Bubace?
I'm doing well so far, just traded over last hour, 6 markets, only 1 loss, reduced to £25 stakes, currently +£7.30 for the day

Well done, i had to pop out for a bit there,, done the first hour, 4 markets no losses so far, back to it now

[darchas]

You are totally right of course and the core point you were making cannot be argued against and I wasn't. It's exactly the same with basic scalping which is a trading comparison. Too many people grinding profits doing the same thing with little depth to their own knowledge and not taking the time to advance it and that route doesn't end well. Anyone that has experience or has travelled that road before knows how that "movie ends".

100% And tbh I think this thread is quite useful as I think in a lot of cases we're talking to ourselves as much as giving advice to Goat! For example I can see myself in the above, happy doing one or two things which I feel comfortable with and not spending enough time deepening that knowledge and exploring over avenues. A good kick up the arse for me!

[Morbius]

You are totally right of course and the core point you were making cannot be argued against and I wasn't. It's exactly the same with basic scalping which is a trading comparison. Too many people grinding profits doing the same thing with little depth to their own knowledge and not taking the time to advance it and that route doesn't end well. Anyone that has experience or has travelled that road before knows how that "movie ends".

100% And tbh I think this thread is quite useful as I think in a lot of cases we're talking to ourselves as much as giving advice to Goat! For example I can see myself in the above, happy doing one or two things which I feel comfortable with and not spending enough time deepening that knowledge and exploring over avenues. A good kick up the arse for me!

+1

There is often a big misconception that the best people to listen to in any field are the most successful ones. I think this idea falls short in fields that are adversarial for several reasons. Firstly the most successful ones will be very mindful of saying too much, my favourite quote which I invented myself (or at least I think I did, probably find out that someone beat me to it in 1734 lol) is "an edge shared is an edge halved". Or they get bored of saying the same things repeatedly and/or are too busy making money to help.

A further reason is that there is an often sometimes subconscious feeling that if someone is asking for help on say a forum like this that their level of understanding is too low and not worth listening to. This is not only wrong in trading but in all fields I have ever experienced. There are some very knowledgeable people in trading who are hovering around the breakeven mark or slightly losing who are in the very slipstream of profitability and in many cases some of these people have intellects higher than the profitable traders.

It is these people that have valuable insight and knowledge because as is often the case, we need to arrive at the correct destination by a process of finding out everything that doesn't work. Most people don't stay this course either through greed, lack of effort or whatever and some people find big edges quite quickly but "endeavour to persevere" as Abraham Lincoln once said and in the words of good old John D. Rockefeller...."Perseverance opens all doors"

[speedyhamster]

imo with Belfair the 95% that do not make a profit consistently try a look where they think the market is going then enter a trade.

the other 5% that do wait for the market to behave in a set way then take advantage of that, and do so on autopilot which makes it look so simple on youtube videos.

[Trader Pat]

the other 5% that do wait for the market to behave in a set way then take advantage of that, and do so on autopilot which makes it look so simple on youtube videos.

When I did Peter Webb's course I got the chance to see him trading in real time so he's exempt from this but anybody can record a trade and then after the fact give some commentary and make themselves seem like a trading genius!

Just recently I watched a video on youtube from another 'professional' trader that really looked to me like nothing more than a straight bet with no logic or strategy that was explained or that I could see. Unfortunately the comments section was filled with people who were in awe of somebody just lobbing a straight bet in the market then trading out when it went his way.

This is a minefield for new traders because they see videos like that where nothing is explained (because in this case there was nothing to explain) and they think its so easy and that they must be thick for not being able to replicate it.

That's why its so important to not try to and copy other traders and to try and understand whats going on in the market instead.

[speedyhamster]

the other 5% that do wait for the market to behave in a set way then take advantage of that, and do so on autopilot which makes it look so simple on youtube videos.

When I did Peter Webb's course I got the chance to see him trading in real time so he's exempt from this but anybody can record a trade and then after the fact give some commentary and make themselves seem like a trading genius!

Just recently I watched a video on youtube from another 'professional' trader that really looked to me like nothing more than a straight bet with no logic or strategy that was explained or that I could see. Unfortunately the comments section was filled with people who were in awe of somebody just lobbing a straight bet in the market then trading out when it went his way.

This is a minefield for new traders because they see videos like that where nothing is explained (because in this case there was nothing to explain) and they think its so easy and that they must be thick for not being able to replicate it.

That's why its so important to not try to and copy other traders and to try and understand whats going on in the market instead.

A good Trading coach would teach you what to look for and why (market knowledge) , then show some examples , then get the trainee to practice and develop his/her own trading style in the markets, so as to develop market knowledge of their own.
In that 5% i include Peter Webb and Caan Berry and others that know how to trade (not recommending Caan's Courses as i am not not sure of his teaching capabilities). i do think this 95% - 5% can put new traders off, i do not think it is as hard to get into the 5% is as hard as they believe it is, but hard work is needed.

[Trader Pat]

A good Trading coach would teach you what to look for and why (market knowledge) , then show some examples , then get the trainee to practice and develop his/her own trading style in the markets, so as to develop market knowledge of their own.

Exactly, that for me is the difference between the videos on Bet Angel TV and most of the others I've seen floating around the internet.

[smallplayer]

I'd dare say the fellas on this forum have watched more videos of Peter than videos of young ladies in tight shorts