Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Fuck me!!! I was about to say I've got a thread much bigger than yours, but when I looked at my Rant Corner which is over three years old (kindly started by Kerberus) I realised you've already exceeded it in a few months!

Anyway, what I was going to say is that I've learnt a lot from the rant thread, such as dealing with Betfair CS, good weather sites, how to fill the gaps in patio slabs, dealing with a cat that craps/vomits all over the place, even where I can get a nude cleaner from!

All those nuggets of information and advice are things that I can action immediately and if useful I'm likely to remember without needing to refer to the thread again. The problem with having a thread where you spill out every thought, feeling, trade, day's result and ask for opinion is that you'll get a lot of good advice that just gets buried under your "good day today, did this" or "bad day today, did that" posts. You won't get much benefit from this forum by simply blogging what you're doing without noting the feedback.

Blimey, I just had to Google naked cleaners... I was flabogasted, loads of them around, who would have thought it?! Just shows you you can learn a lot from these threads

[Derek27]

Blimey, I just had to Google naked cleaners... I was flabogasted, loads of them around, who would have thought it?! Just shows you you can learn a lot from these threads

Make a note of it before it gets lost in the pages of this thread, and report back if you have an interesting experience.

There are loads of them about but none of them offers a brief video of a naked woman cleaning for you to visualise and consider whether it's worth the money.

[wearthefoxhat]

tbh, i was referring to hi energy threads and *no time to lose* approaches that peak after about 4-6 months and then you never hear of the OP again. like yourself, acknowledge that p&l takes time to develop - quite a contrast...

True, trading seems like something that can be learned quick after watching some videos. As you get familiar with the markets it gives the illusion that "it's just around the corner", but this isn't the case because it takes a lot of time to overcome the psychological obstacles and get a proper feel for how the markets move, to know which markets to trade and the best time to trade them.

I imagine that paid courses tend to use a 6 months round figure (which is way off these days), because saying it would take years would scare customers away. It's also not in professional traders' interest to scare off newbies from providing liquidity. All this means that people turn up to the game and expect to make a living from it within a few weeks or months. It makes a lot more sense that it takes years to get to this stage when most of the competition is people that have tens or even hundreds of thousands markets experience

I didn't lose any money on a Saturday, hoorah!!

So I must admit all the videos do draw you in a bit to a false sense of it being easy. Just watched Peters latest video references on twitter, Why I get up in the night..., and trading small stakes... And sorry Peter to be a bit objectional, but a little empathy for those who can't make this work might be helpful... You never mention how much you lost in your first few years or how many years you took to become profitable?
I know you want to help, which is much appreciated, but some guidance on expectations might be useful?

Here's a PW, 6 year old YT video that might explain things.

Hotel Room Analogy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-T94lOX9Zc

[Dallas]

You never mention how much you lost in your first few years or how many years you took to become profitable?
I know you want to help, which is much appreciated, but some guidance on expectations might be useful?

20 years ago the markets were totally different to what they are today, the concept of trading (backing and laying the same selection) barely existed with most people using it back then were more excited about being able to 'lay' selections for the first time. So for those who had the correct approach and grasped the concept and full scale of opportunities that were in front of them - before all the eBooks, courses and other stuff now being sold everywhere it was there for the taking. The only down side being the liquidity was nowhere near what we see today

But to give you an answer (and it has been covered in previous videos) he started £1k starting bank, lost I think around £300 at the lowest point but grew it to around £100k by the end of the first 12mths, but tbh its not going to have much if any relevance now for the reason above.

[Korattt]

I only focused on one set-up which was to avoid all competitive markets, H'caps etc and scalping and only look for uncompetitive (a short priced fav),

This meant for several years when it got to winter and there was no more than 2 cards for days at a time I'd often only trade a max of 3-4 races a day, but my mind set was always 'I'm here for the afternoon and I'd rather trade 1-3 and be confident of a good profit than try and trade them all'

s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge

[goat68]

I only focused on one set-up which was to avoid all competitive markets, H'caps etc and scalping and only look for uncompetitive (a short priced fav),

This meant for several years when it got to winter and there was no more than 2 cards for days at a time I'd often only trade a max of 3-4 races a day, but my mind set was always 'I'm here for the afternoon and I'd rather trade 1-3 and be confident of a good profit than try and trade them all'

s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge

Thanks. I spent today just staring at markets for 2-3hours!! Must have been about 15markets. I was just looking for a Steamer, never saw one... depressing! Not sure I could spend a week and about 15hours looking for a Steamer and maybe finding 2 or 3 it would seem at a guess!?
That does my head in thinking about it!

[Dallas]

I only focused on one set-up which was to avoid all competitive markets, H'caps etc and scalping and only look for uncompetitive (a short priced fav),

This meant for several years when it got to winter and there was no more than 2 cards for days at a time I'd often only trade a max of 3-4 races a day, but my mind set was always 'I'm here for the afternoon and I'd rather trade 1-3 and be confident of a good profit than try and trade them all'

s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge

Thanks. I spent today just staring at markets for 2-3hours!! Must have been about 15markets. I was just looking for a Steamer, never saw one... depressing! Not sure I could spend a week and about 15hours looking for a Steamer and maybe finding 2 or 3 it would seem at a guess!?
That does my head in thinking about it!

How much did you lose during those 2-3 hrs?

Try and think further down the road, when you find 2-3 now you might only make a few quid and it doesn't feel worth while but once you can identify the opportunity with a degree of confidence and can up your stakes picking up £50-£200 a race is easily achievable

[goat68]

s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge

Thanks. I spent today just staring at markets for 2-3hours!! Must have been about 15markets. I was just looking for a Steamer, never saw one... depressing! Not sure I could spend a week and about 15hours looking for a Steamer and maybe finding 2 or 3 it would seem at a guess!?
That does my head in thinking about it!

How much did you lose during those 2-3 hrs?

Try and think further down the road, when you find 2-3 now you might only make a few quid and it doesn't feel worth while but once you can identify the opportunity and can up your stakes picking up £50-£200 a race is a different story

I was watching not trading, so nothing

[Tetras]

There were a few small steams today, but I don't remember any big ones with thousands being chucked at them, though I didn't do much trading this evening.

[goat68]

My head was going doolally staring at those markets and seeing how unpredictable they were. Things were going through my head like there's some conspiracy theory, where Peter and you lot have some top secret information that enables you to win every market..! All those clean sheets I keep seeing screen shots of.......

[Tetras]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

[Derek27]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

[goat68]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

You're implying you can't predict which way a horse is going to move...?

[Tetras]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

[goat68]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

And of course the 'bigger picture' only shows itself once the 'real money' starts to arrive... So makes sense