Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:06 pm
Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:48 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:30 pm

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.
Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.
And of course the 'bigger picture' only shows itself once the 'real money' starts to arrive... So makes sense
Very much so. Before the money comes in the market hasn't even decided which horse belongs in which category, you can see that especially in Irish races, sometimes it even happens 1-2 minutes out. I would say all of my huge losses were due to being unexpectedly caught in one of these events.
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Derek27
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goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:36 pm
[You're implying you can't predict which way a horse is going to move...?
Don't know what gave you that impression. I'm saying there isn't one single reason for why a horse moves in a particular direction, that fits every occasion.
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:48 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:30 pm
Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:20 pm
A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?
Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.
Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

Tetras... Just to clear up a misunderstanding... When you said MOVES BETWEEN CATEGORIES did you mean an alteration in the betting position... Ie.. Second fav becomes third fav etc etc
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:06 pm
Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:48 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:30 pm

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.
Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.
And of course the 'bigger picture' only shows itself once the 'real money' starts to arrive... So makes sense

May be wrong but I don't think that's what Derek meant by "bigger picture". I don't think he meant an increase in liquidity as the market advances towards the start but more to do with a deeper understanding of the market as a whole
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

Morbius wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:22 pm
Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:48 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:30 pm

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.
Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

Tetras... Just to clear up a misunderstanding... When you said MOVES BETWEEN CATEGORIES did you mean an alteration in the betting position... Ie.. Second fav becomes third fav etc etc
It could mean this in some markets, but I meant the simplified way of looking at the odds. For example: a horse moving from "very likely to win" to "pretty likely".

For a horse to move between categories is, from a punting perspective, often pretty significant and the kind of stuff that pops up on TV. At the lower-end it takes a lot of money, if nothing else.
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alexmr2
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Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:01 pm
My head was going doolally staring at those markets and seeing how unpredictable they were. Things were going through my head like there's some conspiracy theory, where Peter and you lot have some top secret information that enables you to win every market..! All those clean sheets I keep seeing screen shots of.......
My guess is that the noise which you are watching, even pro traders cannot just safely find a trade every 10 seconds in every race, they may have to wait a few minutes before spotting an opportunity or it may be one that they know to avoid altogether. Sometimes you will see that even Peter skips certain races and has even admitted to having poorer results on certain days of the week. There are repeating patterns for sure, but since it isn't an exact science it's easy to get thrown off when it doesn't do the same as last time to the very tick.

I believe the clean win/scratch P&Ls you see are due to the way they are trading by being more defensive, you will need to think about how they are doing this style of trading. And don't assume that's how their P&L looks every day
rik
Posts: 1583
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Location: London

Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:42 pm

It could mean this in some markets, but I meant the simplified way of looking at the odds. For example: a horse moving from "very likely to win" to "pretty likely".

For a horse to move between categories is, from a punting perspective, often pretty significant and the kind of stuff that pops up on TV. At the lower-end it takes a lot of money, if nothing else.
are you sure other people are thinking in these categories or that it has any influence on price movement?
all that makes a price move is money and at the lower end less is needed for a price move
how is it significant from a punting perspective what category a horse moved to, the whole point of punting is pricing up yourselves and looking for where the market disagrees
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

Dallas wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:44 pm
Try and think further down the road, when you find 2-3 now you might only make a few quid and it doesn't feel worth while but once you can identify the opportunity with a degree of confidence and can up your stakes picking up £50-£200 a race is easily achievable
Listen to what Dallas is saying here, great advice
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Korattt wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:49 am
Dallas wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:44 pm
Try and think further down the road, when you find 2-3 now you might only make a few quid and it doesn't feel worth while but once you can identify the opportunity with a degree of confidence and can up your stakes picking up £50-£200 a race is easily achievable
Listen to what Dallas is saying here, great advice
👍
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:33 pm
Korattt wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:00 pm
Dallas wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:54 pm
I only focused on one set-up which was to avoid all competitive markets, H'caps etc and scalping and only look for uncompetitive (a short priced fav),

This meant for several years when it got to winter and there was no more than 2 cards for days at a time I'd often only trade a max of 3-4 races a day, but my mind set was always 'I'm here for the afternoon and I'd rather trade 1-3 and be confident of a good profit than try and trade them all'
s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge
Thanks. I spent today just staring at markets for 2-3hours!! Must have been about 15markets. I was just looking for a Steamer, never saw one... depressing! Not sure I could spend a week and about 15hours looking for a Steamer and maybe finding 2 or 3 it would seem at a guess!?
That does my head in thinking about it!

Goat....when you say "looking for a steamer".....how many ticks are you looking for to classify a "steamer" as a "steamer"....5, 10, 15 etc???
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Morbius wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:30 am
goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:33 pm
Korattt wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:00 pm


s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge
Thanks. I spent today just staring at markets for 2-3hours!! Must have been about 15markets. I was just looking for a Steamer, never saw one... depressing! Not sure I could spend a week and about 15hours looking for a Steamer and maybe finding 2 or 3 it would seem at a guess!?
That does my head in thinking about it!

Goat....when you say "looking for a steamer".....how many ticks are you looking for to classify a "steamer" as a "steamer"....5, 10, 15 etc???
Watching Peter's videos it's not that precise, it's a view of looking at price movement, volume, price action, eg.pull backs being sharply bought...
That's my take anyway....
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

rik wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:03 am
Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:42 pm

It could mean this in some markets, but I meant the simplified way of looking at the odds. For example: a horse moving from "very likely to win" to "pretty likely".

For a horse to move between categories is, from a punting perspective, often pretty significant and the kind of stuff that pops up on TV. At the lower-end it takes a lot of money, if nothing else.
are you sure other people are thinking in these categories or that it has any influence on price movement?
all that makes a price move is money and at the lower end less is needed for a price move
how is it significant from a punting perspective what category a horse moved to, the whole point of punting is pricing up yourselves and looking for where the market disagrees
I didn't mean I base all my trades on them, I was just sharing with goat how I 'zoom out' from the individual ladders, to see what's happening more broadly. For experienced traders it's probably so obvious they don't need to think about it, for example: I would treat a race with two horses in the "very likely to win category" the exact same way as any other race, then get destroyed when I tried to scalp it (p.s. I'm aware it can be scalped, but not usually by someone new).
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

My major problem is I'm not confident of any market, so I've got nothing to be patient to wait for as they are all equally likely be be profitable...
If that makes any sense!
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Morbius
Posts: 492
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goat68 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:18 pm
My major problem is I'm not confident of any market, so I've got nothing to be patient to wait for as they are all equally likely be be profitable...
If that makes any sense!

Goat....we have had this conversation before :D

If you don't have confidence then that means you don't have a demonstrable working system and if you don't have that then that means you don't have the correct knowledge. Just how much theoretical studying have you done??? and be honest :D
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Korattt wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:49 am
Dallas wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:44 pm
Try and think further down the road, when you find 2-3 now you might only make a few quid and it doesn't feel worth while but once you can identify the opportunity with a degree of confidence and can up your stakes picking up £50-£200 a race is easily achievable
Listen to what Dallas is saying here, great advice
When Dallas speaks we all need to listen :D
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