Trading What I see !?

[Emmson]

Yes indeed ^^^

I made a note of this from Dallas a while ago. I have been a dedicated scavenger on this site in the past. Indeed I spent several months a few years ago reading virtually every single post. Now would the newbies who come on here and want instant success be prepared to read every post on this forum?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=12429

I dont do much scalping myself but when i do my general guide is.

*Dont go race to race trying to scalp everyone the sameway instead be selective and look for the race types and times that best suit this method.
*Avoid all Maidens, Novices 2yo races etc
*Avoid races with short priced fav's
*Look for a competitive h'cap or the better quality races which have the front few in the betting priced similarly (ie 4.0 - 7.0)
*Target runners trading in a tight range and ignore anything thats been trending in a direction (unless directional scalping) or has a betfair chart that looks like a heart rate monitor - or you may end up needing one!.
*Wait till the market is turning over at a decent rate somewhere around a £200 per second average increase, the quicker you can be in and out or in and scratch the better.
*Pay close attension to the previous race going in-play and especially to when it finishes - at these times there will be a influx of money as people start to take poisitions and this can change everything - even runners that have been rock solid all day could move several ticks at this time and never come back so best just holding back around these periods till things settle again.
* Use the Risk Meter on the Bet Angel over view screen this will give a clear indication to the overall activity - the lower the better when scalping.

and when your not doing that keep reading this forum, the BA blog and watch more video's.

[goat68]

So just watched the Newc 19:45 Hcap, all top 5 runners prices were flat til 2mins and then they basically just did a little dance...
Definitely a no trade, I can't see how technically you could make a trading decision on a complete set of flat prices...?

[goat68]

Take that back, I guess it was ideal scalp territory for 1 tick

[Jukebox]

So just watched the Newc 19:45 Hcap, all top 5 runners prices were flat til 2mins and then they basically just did a little dance...
Definitely a no trade, I can't see how technically you could make a trading decision on a complete set of flat prices...?

Glad to see you've made some progress at least. You have now identified a "Definitely a no trade" set up for your strategy.

[goat68]

Did some baby stake trades today, did well on Hcaps (100%SR), not so good on NovHcaps and NHF they seem too unpredictable for me.
I'm going to keep to Hcaps and try and get good at those.

[Tetras]

Did you catch the steamer on the 15:40 at Hexham (Bushypark)? Haven't seen one like that in awhile.

[goat68]

Did you catch the steamer on the 15:40 at Hexham (Bushypark)? Haven't seen one like that in awhile.

Didn't trade that market unfortunately

[goat68]

I'm sure one of the main reasons this is so hard is because you have so many novice traders who are basically trading at random, which creates a very random market!

[Wingnut]

I'm sure one of the main reasons this is so hard is because you have so many novice traders who are basically trading at random, which creates a very random market!

I’m not sure that’s the case. Novice traders will be using smaller stakes so shouldn’t influence the market. So the general direction will be where the “big money” goes. I’m pretty shit at explaining things but hope you get the jist.

[goat68]

I'm sure one of the main reasons this is so hard is because you have so many novice traders who are basically trading at random, which creates a very random market!

I’m not sure that’s the case. Novice traders will be using smaller stakes so shouldn’t influence the market. So the general direction will be where the “big money” goes. I’m pretty shit at explaining things but hope you get the jist.

Why is the price action so random then?

[Jukebox]

I'm sure one of the main reasons this is so hard is because you have so many novice traders who are basically trading at random, which creates a very random market!

I’m not sure that’s the case. Novice traders will be using smaller stakes so shouldn’t influence the market. So the general direction will be where the “big money” goes. I’m pretty shit at explaining things but hope you get the jist.

Why is the price action so random then?

Hard to read isn't the same as random. Those prices eventually get to their SPs - and any analysis of sp v winrate seems to show anything but randomness.

[speedyhamster]

I'm sure one of the main reasons this is so hard is because you have so many novice traders who are basically trading at random, which creates a very random market!

Would not be enough volume from Novice traders to do that, Market will seam random until you recognize what is happening and who is doing what (eg lay traders pushing price up , or backers pushing the price down, or traders bouncing the price round the crossover points .....)

[Wingnut]

It’s not, just wait for the bigger money to show up. How many ladders do you have open? If you can see the correlations you’ll see it’s not random.

[goat68]

Darn thought I had found a steamer Winc 15:42 sehayli, it was until I got on board at 4mins

[speedyhamster]

I’m not sure that’s the case. Novice traders will be using smaller stakes so shouldn’t influence the market. So the general direction will be where the “big money” goes. I’m pretty shit at explaining things but hope you get the jist.

Why is the price action so random then?

Hard to read isn't the same as random. Those prices eventually get to their SPs - and any analysis of sp v winrate seems to show anything but randomness.

some markets are hard to read so i personally skip those markets no trade