Trading What I see !?

The sport of kings.
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goat68
Posts: 697
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So the opposite of what my thread is called!!
Ie. Don't trade what you see! Trade what you anticipate...!
NickH
Posts: 158
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 7:54 am

Trade by anticipating on what you see ;)
jamesg46
Posts: 2180
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:31 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:01 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:40 pm
Darn thought I had found a steamer Winc 15:42 sehayli, it was until I got on board at 4mins 😂🤣
Trade what you see, not what you think you're likely to see.

If you have spotted a steamer, it's likely that the majority of the move has already happend.

Funny, both of those seem to contradict one another but,

"When people are being greedy, be fearful & when people are being fearful, be greedy."
Your comment basically agrees with what I see in that by the time you see/determine support/resistance/trend it breaks/ends !
You have to magically anticipate it...it's no good saying it's bounced off here 4 times already so it will bounce again... The 5th time it goes straight through!
I am always anticipating something but that doesn't mean I have money waiting in the market based on my anticipation. If a price is ranging between 5.5 & 6 and you're anticipating it will bounce off of 5.5 if it gets backed down to that level again, you don't have to have a trade waiting to prove your hypothesis, if it does bounce then enter, 5.6 5.7 5.8 & 5.9 are all still available. It either does or it doesn't happen.
goat68
Posts: 697
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:47 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:31 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:01 pm


Trade what you see, not what you think you're likely to see.

If you have spotted a steamer, it's likely that the majority of the move has already happend.

Funny, both of those seem to contradict one another but,

"When people are being greedy, be fearful & when people are being fearful, be greedy."
Your comment basically agrees with what I see in that by the time you see/determine support/resistance/trend it breaks/ends !
You have to magically anticipate it...it's no good saying it's bounced off here 4 times already so it will bounce again... The 5th time it goes straight through!
I am always anticipating something but that doesn't mean I have money waiting in the market based on my anticipation. If a price is ranging between 5.5 & 6 and you're anticipating it will bounce off of 5.5 if it gets backed down to that level again, you don't have to have a trade waiting to prove your hypothesis, if it does bounce then enter, 5.6 5.7 5.8 & 5.9 are all still available. It either does or it doesn't happen.
Sorry you lost me there....?
jamesg46
Posts: 2180
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:58 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:47 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:31 pm


Your comment basically agrees with what I see in that by the time you see/determine support/resistance/trend it breaks/ends !
You have to magically anticipate it...it's no good saying it's bounced off here 4 times already so it will bounce again... The 5th time it goes straight through!
I am always anticipating something but that doesn't mean I have money waiting in the market based on my anticipation. If a price is ranging between 5.5 & 6 and you're anticipating it will bounce off of 5.5 if it gets backed down to that level again, you don't have to have a trade waiting to prove your hypothesis, if it does bounce then enter, 5.6 5.7 5.8 & 5.9 are all still available. It either does or it doesn't happen.
Sorry you lost me there....?
Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.
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goat68
Posts: 697
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Done better on last two races by anticipating (informed guessing!)
goat68
Posts: 697
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:05 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:58 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:47 pm


I am always anticipating something but that doesn't mean I have money waiting in the market based on my anticipation. If a price is ranging between 5.5 & 6 and you're anticipating it will bounce off of 5.5 if it gets backed down to that level again, you don't have to have a trade waiting to prove your hypothesis, if it does bounce then enter, 5.6 5.7 5.8 & 5.9 are all still available. It either does or it doesn't happen.
Sorry you lost me there....?
Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.
From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9
jamesg46
Posts: 2180
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:08 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:05 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:58 pm


Sorry you lost me there....?
Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.
From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9
It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.
goat68
Posts: 697
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:14 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:08 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:05 pm


Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.
From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9
It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.
Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate
jamesg46
Posts: 2180
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:17 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:14 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:08 pm


From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9
It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.
Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate
Yes, you can anticipate something but to take part in that anticipation wait for it to play out before your eyes, if what you're thinking will happen actually is happening then get involved.
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