Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Done better on last two races by anticipating (informed guessing!)
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:05 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:58 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:47 pm


I am always anticipating something but that doesn't mean I have money waiting in the market based on my anticipation. If a price is ranging between 5.5 & 6 and you're anticipating it will bounce off of 5.5 if it gets backed down to that level again, you don't have to have a trade waiting to prove your hypothesis, if it does bounce then enter, 5.6 5.7 5.8 & 5.9 are all still available. It either does or it doesn't happen.
Sorry you lost me there....?
Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.
From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:08 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:05 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:58 pm


Sorry you lost me there....?
Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.
From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9
It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:14 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:08 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:05 pm


Basically imo I feel it would be a disadvantage to have money waiting at the top or bottom of a traded range, unless it was a very thickly traded market. In the screen grab the recent traded volume is between 5.6 & 6.4 - I personally wouldn't have money waiting at 5.6 on the off chance that it got backed down to those levels in anticipation of a bounce, I would instead wait and see if it actually happened, which would leave me an opportunity at 5.8 5.9 6.0 & 6.2. Why would I need to expose myself on a maybe when I could better my chances with it actually is.
From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9
It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.
Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:17 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:14 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:08 pm


From your screen grab I would lay at 6, as lots traded there, little at 5.9
It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.
Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate
Yes, you can anticipate something but to take part in that anticipation wait for it to play out before your eyes, if what you're thinking will happen actually is happening then get involved.
Bubace
Posts: 74
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:50 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:17 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:14 pm


It doesn't matter what you would do, you're saying that the support and resistance levels are not holding up... what I'm saying is, that cant have any impact if you don't have money waiting in the market on an anticipated fairy tale in your head. Instead wait for it to prove what you're anticipating and then take part. Laying at 6 could of worked, I don't remeber but if you have money in the market on a shit thinly traded race then there is every chance it could go straight past the bottom of the range, if you haven't got money waiting at those levels and it goes through then oh well, so be it, move on to the next fairy tale.
Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate
Yes, you can anticipate something but to take part in that anticipation wait for it to play out before your eyes, if what you're thinking will happen actually is happening then get involved.
This is what i try and do, if this and that happen ill get involved, only for it to start, me to get involved and it reverses straight away for 20 ticks :D
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Bubace wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:37 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:17 pm


Ah got you ! Basically don't put an order down there, wait for it to get there then evaluate
Yes, you can anticipate something but to take part in that anticipation wait for it to play out before your eyes, if what you're thinking will happen actually is happening then get involved.
This is what i try and do, if this and that happen ill get involved, only for it to start, me to get involved and it reverses straight away for 20 ticks :D
Such is life/trading, the markets will do what they damn please :D

My point to Goat is that if I'm anticipating a bounce off of 5.5 and I enter money at that price to lay and it comes, takes my money and goes straight through me then its likely I'll lose 3, 4 or more ticks before I've even registered whats happening, then if you're gonna sit and hope it comes back in your favour its likely you'll lose more. If I wait until it gets to 5.5 and it starts to bounce then I can enter, if it fails then I sure as hell know that 5.5 is my get out point, if my entry was 5.6 or 5.7 then I've already limited my losing trades just by not having money waiting.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So lost first 5 markets, put my anticipate 'hat' on, then won the next 9!
Ended day massively up, +£3.20 :-)
Odd the way it goes
conners
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:35 pm

Hi guys.

This is my first post on the forum so please go easy on me :)

Really enjoying this thread although i have not got to the end of it yet. I am an inexperienced racing trader but quite a lot of experience in the financial world.

I fully appreciate that your success at this game is going to be very dependent on getting more winning trades than losing ones and protecting your downside when you get it wrong. That being so, it is interesting to read some posters talk about being prepared to lose 3-4 ticks in the hope of winning a higher number to the upside. I totally get that but would point out that P/L is not determined by ticks, it is determined by amounts of money. It will often be the case that the value of a tick to the downside is different to the that you will achieve to the upside (crossover point). Zooming out a bit further, you may lose three ticks on two different trades but lose significantly different amounts. If you lose three ticks below evens
you will lose 0.03 but lose three ticks above 10 and you will lose 1.5 points. I know that this is obvious stuff but you must not lose sight of it otherwise you could end up with a very high strike rate, but small or negative, P&L
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Wingnut
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:31 am

conners wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:57 pm
Hi guys.

This is my first post on the forum so please go easy on me :)

Really enjoying this thread although i have not got to the end of it yet. I am an inexperienced racing trader but quite a lot of experience in the financial world.

I fully appreciate that your success at this game is going to be very dependent on getting more winning trades than losing ones and protecting your downside when you get it wrong. That being so, it is interesting to read some posters talk about being prepared to lose 3-4 ticks in the hope of winning a higher number to the upside. I totally get that but would point out that P/L is not determined by ticks, it is determined by amounts of money. It will often be the case that the value of a tick to the downside is different to the that you will achieve to the upside (crossover point). Zooming out a bit further, you may lose three ticks on two different trades but lose significantly different amounts. If you lose three ticks below evens
you will lose 0.03 but lose three ticks above 10 and you will lose 1.5 points. I know that this is obvious stuff but you must not lose sight of it otherwise you could end up with a very high strike rate, but small or negative, P&L
Hi mate,

Thats part of the reason I use auto stake tick size. I do use flat stakes across the board sometimes like when I'm trading a competitive handicap. But Mdn's, Nov etc with a shortie I use auto stake. When I first started out it was alway tick size this and tick size that, and I could never work out why I had strike rates of between 70-80% but I was still losing money. then it clicked and so far so good.

But that is just the way it suits me and I accept that everyone trades differently and if we all did the same we wouldn't have a market. So each to their own.
conners
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:35 pm

Thanks for sharing, Wingnut
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Been having a rest from order flow trading, being trying back to lay, and trying to spot value, but not sure it's for me, discipline inplay is not my speciality...
kamil2402
Posts: 31
Joined: Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:51 am

I feel like currently the markets are very hard to read.
Bubace
Posts: 74
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:50 pm

Why am i actually getting worse?

ive bee doing this 6 months now, and in no way am i expecting to be profitable or have it nailed after this long, i was hoping to see some improvement

but the opposite seems to be true, the more im trying to learn, the more notes and rewatching my trades back i do, the more understanding i think i have about trading in general, the worse i get

ironically my best ever week still is my first ever week where id never even seen a ladder in my life before, {thought id cracked the easy life :D :D :D }
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alexmr2
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Bubace wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:38 pm
Why am i actually getting worse?

ive bee doing this 6 months now, and in no way am i expecting to be profitable or have it nailed after this long, i was hoping to see some improvement

but the opposite seems to be true, the more im trying to learn, the more notes and rewatching my trades back i do, the more understanding i think i have about trading in general, the worse i get

ironically my best ever week still is my first ever week where id never even seen a ladder in my life before, {thought id cracked the easy life :D :D :D }
I feel the same after 2.5 years of trading 7 days most weeks. This week another £250 down to add to the -£10k total
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