jimibt wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:13 pmcullyboy -that reads well. i would add to that, that often the simple things (in pre-race) are the most difficult to assimilate, purely because they APPEAR so random. they are not!!cullyboy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:58 pmMorbius wrote: ↑Sat Nov 14, 2020 7:32 pm
I actually told myself I wasn't going to bother replying to these cry for help threads after the last one I replied to turned sour but helping people is part of my nature I suppose and my belief systems. It (as has been mentioned) is difficult to advise someone properly when there is so much information missing. However there are so many issues at work here that it is difficult to know where to begin.
When you come onto a forum like this then you must do so with the belief that no one is going to reveal their edge to you and the overwhelming majority of posts will be generic meaning, enough to help you but not enough to make you profitable. However that doesn't make them useless because to get value from a site like this requires a lot of cross referencing and reading between the lines.
Secondly, it comes across to me that your trading education lacks depth. Now before you come back at me on this point and accuse me of "knowing nothing about you" like the last poster I replied to did, you are going to have to take my word for it in many regards. When someone is further down the road than you with their education then a lack of it stands out like the proverbial sore thumb.
A deep trading knowledge isn't learning about indicators and studying charts. These are peripheral. Everybody studies these and everybody takes their own data from them. MACD, RSI, Stochastics and anything else you care to use will not make you a trader. Getting into the intricacies of MACD for example is like learning all the different ways you can use a hammer and chisel but without skill and knowledge, those tools cannot carve a beautiful statue. I said this before on a previous post but your experience has a lot more value than you think.
Learning all the ways not to do something IS PROGRESS. In fact many Investment Banks prefer traders with actual trading experience even if they haven't been successful over someone with a run of the mill Masters or 2:1. Now I am not trying to drag you back into something that you are looking to stop doing but for a deep trading education then you are looking at 3 years minimum and 5 for most people. Do you need 3-5 years to make money on a betting exchange....NO! But the point is that there is a great big trading world out there and with so much to learn, you are not going to crack the problem by fiddling about without serious research and study (if that is indeed what you have spent the most time doing).
Trading successfully is not about learning to trade...it is about evolving into being a trader. Only when you are far enough down the road (the right road) will you realise what that means. Learning indicators and studying charts is gimmicky and there is no correct path for anything gimmicky. There are other problems too, many people on this forum have a lot of experience and knowledge but struggle to pass it on because how do you pass on experience and insight??? You can't know what it is you don't know. I keep notes on everything and my learning advances more rapidly as a result of writing things down. My trading books cannot be resold because I have butchered them with notes, but guess what? When I look back at my past notes then I often cringe even after several years of studying....why....because you can't know what it is you don't know!!!
I came on this forum for reasons similar to you and I have found tremendous insight.....but....no help was given to me directly and I never expected it. I had to read in between the lines but the really good stuff was confirmation of what I already knew which was valuable to me. Just because you have been at this 5 years doesn't mean that you have spent 5 years doing it right and please don't get angry with me saying that because nobody wants to think that they have wasted time. I don't regret any time that I spent studying areas that on reflection will not help me in the final equation simply because I have deeper knowledge and I know that will strengthen my mind set.
5 years is a long time to be doing something so you have certainly built up a lot of knowledge. My guess is as has been mentioned, you are probably not far off and maybe it is something that needs tweaking but that could be with your understanding rather than your methods. If you struggle to make money doing a certain type of trading then that in itself is good because it is driving you to the right area. Without getting too technical, I spent a lot of time on market neutral strategies and other advanced strategies and never got beyond there being a piece of the puzzle missing. Only in the past two weeks have I answered that problem but knowledge like IQ builds on itself.
Without this post dragging on forever, volatile markets require specific trading knowledge and strategies to handle them. Whether the market pre-off is made deliberately volatile or is a sum total of all the traders actions mixed with a lack of liquidity is unknown to me, but the fact is it is volatile but remember.....a betting exchange is a financial market, the exchange was designed on such. I don't know how much studying of financial markets you have done and day trading theory but I would advise you to learn this stuff but my fear is that after 5 years you have lost the heart for it. If you make money on football then stick to that and scale up, build on your knowledge base and compound your knowledge. Remember that your TRUE EDGE comes from compounded knowledge and is an organic process.
if i could impart one little TIP (re pre racing), it's nothing subversive or radical. literally, because we operate within a closed system (book%), then any and all price movements are constrained by those laws... nothing more. think of pistons, or a fat bstard on a waterbed. downward pressure exerts an equal (or distributed) force in the opposite direction. as it's a closed system, that pressure is exerted in a very specific way to the other actors...
anyway -you get my drift (pun, sorta intended!)
Hi Jimbt, you actually got the person that wrote that message wrong, it was me not Cullyboy
In regards to your comment regarding the book %, you are right that all price movements are constrained by the book % but don't ever lose sight of what can be achieved within a decimalised highly sensitive pricing structure. There is more than enough leeway to manipulate prices within several pips of recognised value despite the fact that by doing so they are actually providing value to sharps who know what value looks like, at the end of the day there is plenty of subjective opinion within horseracing and its very difficult for even experienced tissue providers to really know the true difference between say an 11/8 chance and 6/4 etc.
Manipulation has gone on in financial markets for hundreds of years and it isn't going to stop now because as I said, it is deeply adversarial. This is not conspiracy theory rubbish but simple facts really once you study this stuff. The microscopic liquidity on the exchanges and the non-transparency on the exchanges of just who places what orders into the market and how much pretty much means that some big player with the right training/algorithm/bot/latency advantage would have more than enough wiggle room.
A study of market making theory is a very enlightening but to go into this with the belief that it is just a random moving market is really the same as a poker player sitting down and just playing his cards against the communal cards that come out and never recognising that there are people on the table who are at the next level and are actively playing against him. As for your analogy, if someone was deliberately applying pressure to the person on the bed then the movement and subsequent counter movement wouldn't be a natural process and it would be much easier to create movement on a 20st person than an object of say several hundred tons.