Enough is enough - time to admit defeat.

The sport of kings.
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

jimibt wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:13 pm
cullyboy wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:58 pm
Morbius wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 7:32 pm



I actually told myself I wasn't going to bother replying to these cry for help threads after the last one I replied to turned sour but helping people is part of my nature I suppose and my belief systems. It (as has been mentioned) is difficult to advise someone properly when there is so much information missing. However there are so many issues at work here that it is difficult to know where to begin.

When you come onto a forum like this then you must do so with the belief that no one is going to reveal their edge to you and the overwhelming majority of posts will be generic meaning, enough to help you but not enough to make you profitable. However that doesn't make them useless because to get value from a site like this requires a lot of cross referencing and reading between the lines.

Secondly, it comes across to me that your trading education lacks depth. Now before you come back at me on this point and accuse me of "knowing nothing about you" like the last poster I replied to did, you are going to have to take my word for it in many regards. When someone is further down the road than you with their education then a lack of it stands out like the proverbial sore thumb.

A deep trading knowledge isn't learning about indicators and studying charts. These are peripheral. Everybody studies these and everybody takes their own data from them. MACD, RSI, Stochastics and anything else you care to use will not make you a trader. Getting into the intricacies of MACD for example is like learning all the different ways you can use a hammer and chisel but without skill and knowledge, those tools cannot carve a beautiful statue. I said this before on a previous post but your experience has a lot more value than you think.

Learning all the ways not to do something IS PROGRESS. In fact many Investment Banks prefer traders with actual trading experience even if they haven't been successful over someone with a run of the mill Masters or 2:1. Now I am not trying to drag you back into something that you are looking to stop doing but for a deep trading education then you are looking at 3 years minimum and 5 for most people. Do you need 3-5 years to make money on a betting exchange....NO! But the point is that there is a great big trading world out there and with so much to learn, you are not going to crack the problem by fiddling about without serious research and study (if that is indeed what you have spent the most time doing).

Trading successfully is not about learning to trade...it is about evolving into being a trader. Only when you are far enough down the road (the right road) will you realise what that means. Learning indicators and studying charts is gimmicky and there is no correct path for anything gimmicky. There are other problems too, many people on this forum have a lot of experience and knowledge but struggle to pass it on because how do you pass on experience and insight??? You can't know what it is you don't know. I keep notes on everything and my learning advances more rapidly as a result of writing things down. My trading books cannot be resold because I have butchered them with notes, but guess what? When I look back at my past notes then I often cringe even after several years of studying....why....because you can't know what it is you don't know!!!

I came on this forum for reasons similar to you and I have found tremendous insight.....but....no help was given to me directly and I never expected it. I had to read in between the lines but the really good stuff was confirmation of what I already knew which was valuable to me. Just because you have been at this 5 years doesn't mean that you have spent 5 years doing it right and please don't get angry with me saying that because nobody wants to think that they have wasted time. I don't regret any time that I spent studying areas that on reflection will not help me in the final equation simply because I have deeper knowledge and I know that will strengthen my mind set.

5 years is a long time to be doing something so you have certainly built up a lot of knowledge. My guess is as has been mentioned, you are probably not far off and maybe it is something that needs tweaking but that could be with your understanding rather than your methods. If you struggle to make money doing a certain type of trading then that in itself is good because it is driving you to the right area. Without getting too technical, I spent a lot of time on market neutral strategies and other advanced strategies and never got beyond there being a piece of the puzzle missing. Only in the past two weeks have I answered that problem but knowledge like IQ builds on itself.

Without this post dragging on forever, volatile markets require specific trading knowledge and strategies to handle them. Whether the market pre-off is made deliberately volatile or is a sum total of all the traders actions mixed with a lack of liquidity is unknown to me, but the fact is it is volatile but remember.....a betting exchange is a financial market, the exchange was designed on such. I don't know how much studying of financial markets you have done and day trading theory but I would advise you to learn this stuff but my fear is that after 5 years you have lost the heart for it. If you make money on football then stick to that and scale up, build on your knowledge base and compound your knowledge. Remember that your TRUE EDGE comes from compounded knowledge and is an organic process.
cullyboy -that reads well. i would add to that, that often the simple things (in pre-race) are the most difficult to assimilate, purely because they APPEAR so random. they are not!!

if i could impart one little TIP (re pre racing), it's nothing subversive or radical. literally, because we operate within a closed system (book%), then any and all price movements are constrained by those laws... nothing more. think of pistons, or a fat bstard on a waterbed. downward pressure exerts an equal (or distributed) force in the opposite direction. as it's a closed system, that pressure is exerted in a very specific way to the other actors...

anyway -you get my drift (pun, sorta intended!)


Hi Jimbt, you actually got the person that wrote that message wrong, it was me not Cullyboy :D

In regards to your comment regarding the book %, you are right that all price movements are constrained by the book % but don't ever lose sight of what can be achieved within a decimalised highly sensitive pricing structure. There is more than enough leeway to manipulate prices within several pips of recognised value despite the fact that by doing so they are actually providing value to sharps who know what value looks like, at the end of the day there is plenty of subjective opinion within horseracing and its very difficult for even experienced tissue providers to really know the true difference between say an 11/8 chance and 6/4 etc.

Manipulation has gone on in financial markets for hundreds of years and it isn't going to stop now because as I said, it is deeply adversarial. This is not conspiracy theory rubbish but simple facts really once you study this stuff. The microscopic liquidity on the exchanges and the non-transparency on the exchanges of just who places what orders into the market and how much pretty much means that some big player with the right training/algorithm/bot/latency advantage would have more than enough wiggle room.

A study of market making theory is a very enlightening but to go into this with the belief that it is just a random moving market is really the same as a poker player sitting down and just playing his cards against the communal cards that come out and never recognising that there are people on the table who are at the next level and are actively playing against him. As for your analogy, if someone was deliberately applying pressure to the person on the bed then the movement and subsequent counter movement wouldn't be a natural process and it would be much easier to create movement on a 20st person than an object of say several hundred tons.
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Morbius
Posts: 492
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:41 am
Morbius wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:17 am
As an add on to what I just said using the poker analogy, it is a huge misconception that you lose money merely based on your own lack of knowledge and skill. I knew many professional poker players years ago who made good livings who were not good poker players.....they were merely better than the mean average opposition that they faced. When I played full time in 2002, I did so with a fraction of the knowledge that I have now.

So money isn't automatically made by your own skill and knowledge or lost through a lack of it. There is a saying in poker that you can be the tenth best player in the world but if you continue to sit in games with the other nine players who are better than you then you will lose money. So a world class player can be a net loser and a poor player can be a net winner. The better you are as a poker player then your POTENTIAL to make money increases but its not automatic that you will. This is the same as trading.

There are major players operating on a betting exchange who have a much greater impact simply because of lower liquidity. Traders need to do an appraisal as to what these people do, trust me.....it can be figured out with perseverance. BF was created on financial markets so the answers can be found studying those concepts and seeing which ones transfer across and which ones don't. Of course there is volatility on an exchange, there is volatility in poker, blackjack and any other financial market you can care to mention but volatility isn't your true enemy, the ones that take your money are. So you have two goals as a trader....better your own trading knowledge and experience but learn who is taking your money and how and never forget why the PC exists in the first place.

+1

If a strong poker player transitions to trading, either on the stock market/sports markets, there are many attributes that they can bring to the party.


traits.png


If anyone is weak in any of these areas, it will cost them. In poker a poor call, or a mistimed raise, in trading, poor execution...etc

In both cases, if you "play" out of your comfort zone, bankroll, ie: trades too big, a cash game/tournament bigger than you're ready for, it's likely not to end well. There will be times you could get away with it, but...the probability is, you won't.

Yes that's correct as the correlation between poker and blackjack is very strong with trading when you correctly juxtapose. In fact it is so strong that I recall reading in The New Market Wizards some years ago about a training school in the States where much of the training used poker examples to get the points across. The people that pigeon hole subjects as being completely individual really do miss a trick here IMO.

Those traits while being correct really don't get to the heart of the problem because most people believe themselves to have them. Like intelligence as just one example, even people with average IQs of 100 perceive themselves to be intelligent. It is very difficult to perceive a higher intelligence level. We can KNOW someone is more intelligent but we don't know why they are or how. The vast majority of people have never taken an IQ test so have no frame of reference but "intelligence" in this instance is a misnomer.

It is a specific type of "intelligence" without it being generic intelligence. Someone for example could have an IQ of 170 and be a very good trader but the connection between a 170 IQ and being a good trader isn't automatic. It is for this reason why people who have been successful in other fields automatically think they can transfer that intelligence to trading. There is a specific type of IQ that I call "subject IQ". A person could have a generic IQ of say 150 but be an "idiot" in the subject matter or subject that they are starting out on. Instinctively any smart person should know this and we all know when we have no knowledge of something as its obvious. The problem comes when we get knowledge but have no frame of reference as to how much of it we need or what types of knowledge.

It is here where generic intelligence and ego cloud the judgement. Where "intelligence" plays a part IMO is in the learning process and it is this that separates the ones that fail from the ones that succeed. It is learning what you need to learn first and foremost and becoming aware of your environment. Many species of animal on this earth are aware of their own environment. A lion that is hunting for example knows it must conceal to catch its prey. The fact is that traders who fail never learn enough about their environment and what is operating within it. As I have said before, knowledge compounds on itself over time just like a bankroll would with an edge.

You build intellectual property as you continue the learning curve but the vast majority of traders don't do this. I live in Sheffield, London is 150 miles away, if I am only ever prepared to drive 50 miles in my car and no further then I can't ever reach London or Liverpool, Newcastle or anywhere else that is beyond 50 miles. Some subjects are complex enough to mean that they lay beyond the effort that the average person is prepared to put into them and so never reach their destination or in some cases, the person just headed in the wrong direction and never turned around. Intelligence IMO is that gut feeling that you are heading in the wrong direction but it is many different things.

But if you stay with the same subject for long enough and by "stay" I mean study and not to simply "fiddle around" on the exchanges all day then you will develop over time a trading "intelligence". This will almost certainly happen. Albert Einstein once said "I am not smarter than everyone else, I just stay with problems for longer"......although he did have an IQ of 160 iirc so he was smarter than most :D
arbitrage16
Posts: 532
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@Morbius - are you a profitable trader?
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

arbitrage16 wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:02 am
@Morbius - are you a profitable trader?

Doubt it, though he’s great at giving out analogies.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Morbius wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 9:30 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:41 am
Morbius wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:17 am
As an add on to what I just said using the poker analogy, it is a huge misconception that you lose money merely based on your own lack of knowledge and skill. I knew many professional poker players years ago who made good livings who were not good poker players.....they were merely better than the mean average opposition that they faced. When I played full time in 2002, I did so with a fraction of the knowledge that I have now.

So money isn't automatically made by your own skill and knowledge or lost through a lack of it. There is a saying in poker that you can be the tenth best player in the world but if you continue to sit in games with the other nine players who are better than you then you will lose money. So a world class player can be a net loser and a poor player can be a net winner. The better you are as a poker player then your POTENTIAL to make money increases but its not automatic that you will. This is the same as trading.

There are major players operating on a betting exchange who have a much greater impact simply because of lower liquidity. Traders need to do an appraisal as to what these people do, trust me.....it can be figured out with perseverance. BF was created on financial markets so the answers can be found studying those concepts and seeing which ones transfer across and which ones don't. Of course there is volatility on an exchange, there is volatility in poker, blackjack and any other financial market you can care to mention but volatility isn't your true enemy, the ones that take your money are. So you have two goals as a trader....better your own trading knowledge and experience but learn who is taking your money and how and never forget why the PC exists in the first place.

+1

If a strong poker player transitions to trading, either on the stock market/sports markets, there are many attributes that they can bring to the party.


traits.png


If anyone is weak in any of these areas, it will cost them. In poker a poor call, or a mistimed raise, in trading, poor execution...etc

In both cases, if you "play" out of your comfort zone, bankroll, ie: trades too big, a cash game/tournament bigger than you're ready for, it's likely not to end well. There will be times you could get away with it, but...the probability is, you won't.

Yes that's correct as the correlation between poker and blackjack is very strong with trading when you correctly juxtapose. In fact it is so strong that I recall reading in The New Market Wizards some years ago about a training school in the States where much of the training used poker examples to get the points across. The people that pigeon hole subjects as being completely individual really do miss a trick here IMO.

Those traits while being correct really don't get to the heart of the problem because most people believe themselves to have them. Like intelligence as just one example, even people with average IQs of 100 perceive themselves to be intelligent. It is very difficult to perceive a higher intelligence level. We can KNOW someone is more intelligent but we don't know why they are or how. The vast majority of people have never taken an IQ test so have no frame of reference but "intelligence" in this instance is a misnomer.

It is a specific type of "intelligence" without it being generic intelligence. Someone for example could have an IQ of 170 and be a very good trader but the connection between a 170 IQ and being a good trader isn't automatic. It is for this reason why people who have been successful in other fields automatically think they can transfer that intelligence to trading. There is a specific type of IQ that I call "subject IQ". A person could have a generic IQ of say 150 but be an "idiot" in the subject matter or subject that they are starting out on. Instinctively any smart person should know this and we all know when we have no knowledge of something as its obvious. The problem comes when we get knowledge but have no frame of reference as to how much of it we need or what types of knowledge.

It is here where generic intelligence and ego cloud the judgement. Where "intelligence" plays a part IMO is in the learning process and it is this that separates the ones that fail from the ones that succeed. It is learning what you need to learn first and foremost and becoming aware of your environment. Many species of animal on this earth are aware of their own environment. A lion that is hunting for example knows it must conceal to catch its prey. The fact is that traders who fail never learn enough about their environment and what is operating within it. As I have said before, knowledge compounds on itself over time just like a bankroll would with an edge.

You build intellectual property as you continue the learning curve but the vast majority of traders don't do this. I live in Sheffield, London is 150 miles away, if I am only ever prepared to drive 50 miles in my car and no further then I can't ever reach London or Liverpool, Newcastle or anywhere else that is beyond 50 miles. Some subjects are complex enough to mean that they lay beyond the effort that the average person is prepared to put into them and so never reach their destination or in some cases, the person just headed in the wrong direction and never turned around. Intelligence IMO is that gut feeling that you are heading in the wrong direction but it is many different things.

But if you stay with the same subject for long enough and by "stay" I mean study and not to simply "fiddle around" on the exchanges all day then you will develop over time a trading "intelligence". This will almost certainly happen. Albert Einstein once said "I am not smarter than everyone else, I just stay with problems for longer"......although he did have an IQ of 160 iirc so he was smarter than most :D
I suppose intelligence is on the list because it's more to do with following/creating a rule/instruction and using some basic maths to realise an outcome.

If there was a poker strategy/rule to go all-in every hand (eg: 50 big blinds) it's gonna work a lot of time, but it's not an intelligent thing to do because in poker you eventually will run into a dominant hand and be at risk.

In trading, similarly, if a trader went all-in on a trade, the market will move with the trade some of the time, but, when it goes the other way, and the trader has to trade out, maybe 25% of the bank has now gone. Through lack of intellegence, the process is repeated, then the obvious will eventually occur.
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

TraderFred wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:20 am
arbitrage16 wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:02 am
@Morbius - are you a profitable trader?

Doubt it, though he’s great at giving out analogies.


In answer to the first question.....the answer is no as was explained in my very first few posts on this forum hence why I am here, to learn and fill in the gaps in my knowledge although I am quickly learning something else, who to listen to and who is full of hot air and crap and who can only put crap in their posts. ;)

I've studied trading deeply for 5 years+ trying to transition from poker. Based on what I have seen and read so far in the past six weeks, I would back my knowledge against the majority of "all stars" on here. Not making money doesn't automatically correlate to not making it in the future. I studied poker for several years and a similar process and made enough from that to blow out of the water what the overwhelming majority of people on here have made from trading with the odd one or two exceptions but thanks for your great reply
Last edited by Morbius on Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Morbius
Posts: 492
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:38 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:57 pm
Morbius wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 9:30 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:41 am



+1

If a strong poker player transitions to trading, either on the stock market/sports markets, there are many attributes that they can bring to the party.


traits.png


If anyone is weak in any of these areas, it will cost them. In poker a poor call, or a mistimed raise, in trading, poor execution...etc

In both cases, if you "play" out of your comfort zone, bankroll, ie: trades too big, a cash game/tournament bigger than you're ready for, it's likely not to end well. There will be times you could get away with it, but...the probability is, you won't.

Yes that's correct as the correlation between poker and blackjack is very strong with trading when you correctly juxtapose. In fact it is so strong that I recall reading in The New Market Wizards some years ago about a training school in the States where much of the training used poker examples to get the points across. The people that pigeon hole subjects as being completely individual really do miss a trick here IMO.

Those traits while being correct really don't get to the heart of the problem because most people believe themselves to have them. Like intelligence as just one example, even people with average IQs of 100 perceive themselves to be intelligent. It is very difficult to perceive a higher intelligence level. We can KNOW someone is more intelligent but we don't know why they are or how. The vast majority of people have never taken an IQ test so have no frame of reference but "intelligence" in this instance is a misnomer.

It is a specific type of "intelligence" without it being generic intelligence. Someone for example could have an IQ of 170 and be a very good trader but the connection between a 170 IQ and being a good trader isn't automatic. It is for this reason why people who have been successful in other fields automatically think they can transfer that intelligence to trading. There is a specific type of IQ that I call "subject IQ". A person could have a generic IQ of say 150 but be an "idiot" in the subject matter or subject that they are starting out on. Instinctively any smart person should know this and we all know when we have no knowledge of something as its obvious. The problem comes when we get knowledge but have no frame of reference as to how much of it we need or what types of knowledge.

It is here where generic intelligence and ego cloud the judgement. Where "intelligence" plays a part IMO is in the learning process and it is this that separates the ones that fail from the ones that succeed. It is learning what you need to learn first and foremost and becoming aware of your environment. Many species of animal on this earth are aware of their own environment. A lion that is hunting for example knows it must conceal to catch its prey. The fact is that traders who fail never learn enough about their environment and what is operating within it. As I have said before, knowledge compounds on itself over time just like a bankroll would with an edge.

You build intellectual property as you continue the learning curve but the vast majority of traders don't do this. I live in Sheffield, London is 150 miles away, if I am only ever prepared to drive 50 miles in my car and no further then I can't ever reach London or Liverpool, Newcastle or anywhere else that is beyond 50 miles. Some subjects are complex enough to mean that they lay beyond the effort that the average person is prepared to put into them and so never reach their destination or in some cases, the person just headed in the wrong direction and never turned around. Intelligence IMO is that gut feeling that you are heading in the wrong direction but it is many different things.

But if you stay with the same subject for long enough and by "stay" I mean study and not to simply "fiddle around" on the exchanges all day then you will develop over time a trading "intelligence". This will almost certainly happen. Albert Einstein once said "I am not smarter than everyone else, I just stay with problems for longer"......although he did have an IQ of 160 iirc so he was smarter than most :D
I suppose intelligence is on the list because it's more to do with following/creating a rule/instruction and using some basic maths to realise an outcome.

If there was a poker strategy/rule to go all-in every hand (eg: 50 big blinds) it's gonna work a lot of time, but it's not an intelligent thing to do because in poker you eventually will run into a dominant hand and be at risk.

In trading, similarly, if a trader went all-in on a trade, the market will move with the trade some of the time, but, when it goes the other way, and the trader has to trade out, maybe 25% of the bank has now gone. Through lack of intellegence, the process is repeated, then the obvious will eventually occur.

you have touched on why online poker became difficult because the game in many ways became theoretically solved by the vast majority of players who operated above certain levels so earnings became compressed. Your all in every hand example has actually been done with ICM (Independent Chip Model) for games like SNG's/STT's. Limit hold'em was killed off many years ago and as far back as 2005 by the game becoming basically solved. This was the form of poker that computers solved first like Libratus for example. Playing decisions become easier as chip stacks diminish and many late tournament decisions for example become automatic in many scenarios and so no need for intelligence, just an algorithmic process.
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

Morbius wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:47 pm
TraderFred wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:20 am
arbitrage16 wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:02 am
@Morbius - are you a profitable trader?

Doubt it, though he’s great at giving out analogies.


In answer to the first question.....the answer is no as was explained in my very first few posts on this forum hence why I am here, to learn and fill in the gaps in my knowledge although I am quickly learning something else, who to listen to and who is full of hot air and crap and who can only put crap in their posts. ;)

I've studied trading deeply for 5 years+ trying to transition from poker. Based on what I have seen and read so far in the past six weeks, I would back my knowledge against the majority of "all stars" on here. Not making money doesn't automatically correlate to not making it in the future. I studied poker for several years and a similar process and made enough from that to blow out of the water what the overwhelming majority of people on here have made from trading with the odd one or two exceptions but thanks for your great reply

From what I’ve read those dogs from the famous painting could have made money playing online poker back in 2002, before all the dumb American money was taken away from the market.

If you can’t make poker pay anymore, perhaps you could give online craps a go instead ?
sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Those were the days. I was making £7k a month botting the simplest poker strat in the world on cash tables. I thought I was made :(
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
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Morbius wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:47 pm
TraderFred wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:20 am
arbitrage16 wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:02 am
@Morbius - are you a profitable trader?

Doubt it, though he’s great at giving out analogies.


In answer to the first question.....the answer is no as was explained in my very first few posts on this forum hence why I am here, to learn and fill in the gaps in my knowledge although I am quickly learning something else, who to listen to and who is full of hot air and crap and who can only put crap in their posts. ;)

I've studied trading deeply for 5 years+ trying to transition from poker. Based on what I have seen and read so far in the past six weeks, I would back my knowledge against the majority of "all stars" on here. Not making money doesn't automatically correlate to not making it in the future. I studied poker for several years and a similar process and made enough from that to blow out of the water what the overwhelming majority of people on here have made from trading with the odd one or two exceptions but thanks for your great reply

Maybe you've been studying the wrong things, 5 years is a long time to study something deeply and still not be profitable. But full marks for perseverance.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

This discussion does make me think:
- xtrader16 being at this 5years and still not profitable
- morbius knows tons of theory and still not profitable
- if there was some simple metric(s) that told you which way a market is going to trade everyone would be using it..., Therefore there isn't one!
- everyone says follow a plan, but if you can't define anything tangible that gives you a market indication, then a plan is going to be hard to realize
- so you can't trade using something tangible, therefore you trade on instinct, gut feel, most likely from experience
- if you don't have years of experience to base your instinctive trades on then you're basically guessing...
- Therefore goat is currently guessing :-)
Bubace
Posts: 74
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:53 pm
This discussion does make me think:
- xtrader16 being at this 5years and still not profitable
- morbius knows tons of theory and still not profitable
- if there was some simple metric(s) that told you which way a market is going to trade everyone would be using it..., Therefore there isn't one!
- everyone says follow a plan, but if you can't define anything tangible that gives you a market indication, then a plan is going to be hard to realize
- so you can't trade using something tangible, therefore you trade on instinct, gut feel, most likely from experience
- if you don't have years of experience to base your instinctive trades on then you're basically guessing...
- Therefore goat is currently guessing :-)
youre not wrong! i was trying something on practice mode earlier and deliberately tried to loose, i won them all, and not just small wins, big swings :? :?
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:53 pm
This discussion does make me think:
- xtrader16 being at this 5years and still not profitable
- morbius knows tons of theory and still not profitable
- if there was some simple metric(s) that told you which way a market is going to trade everyone would be using it..., Therefore there isn't one!
- everyone says follow a plan, but if you can't define anything tangible that gives you a market indication, then a plan is going to be hard to realize
- so you can't trade using something tangible, therefore you trade on instinct, gut feel, most likely from experience
- if you don't have years of experience to base your instinctive trades on then you're basically guessing...
- Therefore goat is currently guessing :-)
There you go, another example of the intelligence needed for trader.

The title of the thread has been clarified further, its not enough and it's not yet time to admit defeat.

Onwards and Upwards...
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Bubace wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:59 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:53 pm
This discussion does make me think:
- xtrader16 being at this 5years and still not profitable
- morbius knows tons of theory and still not profitable
- if there was some simple metric(s) that told you which way a market is going to trade everyone would be using it..., Therefore there isn't one!
- everyone says follow a plan, but if you can't define anything tangible that gives you a market indication, then a plan is going to be hard to realize
- so you can't trade using something tangible, therefore you trade on instinct, gut feel, most likely from experience
- if you don't have years of experience to base your instinctive trades on then you're basically guessing...
- Therefore goat is currently guessing :-)
youre not wrong! i was trying something on practice mode earlier and deliberately tried to loose, i won them all, and not just small wins, big swings :? :?
Yes exactly, you try your best to pick the most illogical move so you lose , and it wins!!
But you just try and make a profitable strategy from that!
Quantify 'illogical'?
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Morbius
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MODS......why have posts disappeared from this thread??
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