US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:02 pm
ChrisF wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:08 am
Joe Biden has fractured his ankle and is now in some sort of pot. He was at the hospital on the 28th, if he's a unlucky chap give it 5 to 7 days until he has corona virus and 10 to 15 days until he's dead, well before the electrol college declares. The VP is looking a great bet at 1000 to 1.
You are hopeful. ;) As has been stated before, even in the unlikely event of Biden's passing before the 14th it doesn't necessarily mean he won't be declared the winner of the Betfair market.

When I was little I once asked my mother if a particular elderly aunty I hadn't seen for years "is dead yet"! You can imagine my mum was furious - there's no need to be so blunt!
No idea why this came to mind after reading your reply but,

https://youtu.be/pMkDvwQ4Zu8

I thought it was bleak but not as blunt as people talking about hoping someone is swinging from a rope.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:57 am
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:47 am
Oh, I don't know about that. Could well be true, certainly sounds possible because in his tweet it says all evidence will be handed in by Tuesday.
It's funny how all evidence is always due to be handed in tomorrow or next week, they'll be saying that in two years time. ;)
I'm by no means perfect but I'm very grateful that I don't suffer from the affliction of gullibility
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
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Location: UK

jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:20 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:02 pm
ChrisF wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:08 am
Joe Biden has fractured his ankle and is now in some sort of pot. He was at the hospital on the 28th, if he's a unlucky chap give it 5 to 7 days until he has corona virus and 10 to 15 days until he's dead, well before the electrol college declares. The VP is looking a great bet at 1000 to 1.
You are hopeful. ;) As has been stated before, even in the unlikely event of Biden's passing before the 14th it doesn't necessarily mean he won't be declared the winner of the Betfair market.

When I was little I once asked my mother if a particular elderly aunty I hadn't seen for years "is dead yet"! You can imagine my mum was furious - there's no need to be so blunt!
No idea why this came to mind after reading your reply but,

https://youtu.be/pMkDvwQ4Zu8

I thought it was bleak but not as blunt as people talking about hoping someone is swinging from a rope.
Why do so-called football fans bother going to the match when they're not even interested in it. Some of them were facing the other way as play continued!
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:34 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:20 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:02 pm

You are hopeful. ;) As has been stated before, even in the unlikely event of Biden's passing before the 14th it doesn't necessarily mean he won't be declared the winner of the Betfair market.

When I was little I once asked my mother if a particular elderly aunty I hadn't seen for years "is dead yet"! You can imagine my mum was furious - there's no need to be so blunt!
No idea why this came to mind after reading your reply but,

https://youtu.be/pMkDvwQ4Zu8

I thought it was bleak but not as blunt as people talking about hoping someone is swinging from a rope.
Why do so-called football fans bother going to the match when they're not even interested in it. Some of them were facing the other way as play continued!
Tribalism. Its addictive.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:23 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:57 am
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:47 am
Oh, I don't know about that. Could well be true, certainly sounds possible because in his tweet it says all evidence will be handed in by Tuesday.
It's funny how all evidence is always due to be handed in tomorrow or next week, they'll be saying that in two years time. ;)
I'm by no means perfect but I'm very grateful that I don't suffer from the affliction of gullibility
Most people do, they're just unaware, especially the left... I mean dont get me wrong, im not left or right leaning... but instantly you have to be more susceptible to gullibility if you're not conservative.

Anyway, I'm not sure how many times I have to explain it before it soaks in, but just because I write something doesn't mean I believe it to be fact. The reason I'm interested is because (if/could/may) have an impact on market activity.
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Derek27
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jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:40 pm
Most people do, they're just unaware, especially the left... I mean dont get me wrong, im not left or right leaning... but instantly you have to be more susceptible to gullibility if you're not conservative.
The first thing I thought of when I read that was Iain Duncan Smith conning his fellow Conservative MPs into believing that he's easing child poverty by rolling out universal credit to [single] claimants, to an eruption of applause!!

That single word in square brackets that he 'accidentally' left out might have had people wondering what single claimants have to do with child poverty, but it shows whether you're on the left or right, some people gullibly believe whatever they like to believe.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:52 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:40 pm
Most people do, they're just unaware, especially the left... I mean dont get me wrong, im not left or right leaning... but instantly you have to be more susceptible to gullibility if you're not conservative.
The first thing I thought of when I read that was Iain Duncan Smith conning his fellow Conservative MPs into believing that he's easing child poverty by rolling out universal credit to [single] claimants, to an eruption of applause!!

That single word in square brackets that he 'accidentally' left out might have had people wondering what single claimants have to do with child poverty, but it shows whether you're on the left or right, some people gullibly believe whatever they like to believe.
You see my mistake which I always make is (Left/Liberal) & (Right/Conservative)

By the very definition of Liberal & Conservative,
Liberal would be more susceptible to gullibility.

I don't actually know of Liberal is Centre, Left of Centre or Left though.
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Derek27
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jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:59 pm
By the very definition of Liberal & Conservative,
Liberal would be more susceptible to gullibility.
You've lost me there. :)
Screenshot 2020-11-30 140348.gif
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jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:05 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:59 pm
By the very definition of Liberal & Conservative,
Liberal would be more susceptible to gullibility.
You've lost me there. :)
Screenshot 2020-11-30 140348.gif
Very good point though about people believing what they want to believe... feel like I've been banging that drum too recently.
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Trader Pat
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jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:40 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:23 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:57 am

It's funny how all evidence is always due to be handed in tomorrow or next week, they'll be saying that in two years time. ;)
I'm by no means perfect but I'm very grateful that I don't suffer from the affliction of gullibility
Most people do, they're just unaware, especially the left... I mean dont get me wrong, im not left or right leaning... but instantly you have to be more susceptible to gullibility if you're not conservative.

Anyway, I'm not sure how many times I have to explain it before it soaks in, but just because I write something doesn't mean I believe it to be fact. The reason I'm interested is because (if/could/may) have an impact on market activity.
Wasn't having a go at you James I was quoting Derek and you happened to be part of the quote. Sorry if it it came across as an attack on you.

Interesting idea though, if we're still talking about America how can the left be more gullible than the right? The right is where the evangelicals live, they make up about 25% of the electorate and you won't find a more gullible group of people than them. The right is where most of Fox News viewers come from and they've pedaled rubbish for years and have the highest viewership and ratings. Then there's right wing radio stations and YouTube channels that deal in conspiracy theories and worse.

There are obviously gullible people on both sides who believe what they want but its hard to make a case that the left is more gullible than the right.
jamesg46
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Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:22 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:40 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:23 pm


I'm by no means perfect but I'm very grateful that I don't suffer from the affliction of gullibility
Most people do, they're just unaware, especially the left... I mean dont get me wrong, im not left or right leaning... but instantly you have to be more susceptible to gullibility if you're not conservative.

Anyway, I'm not sure how many times I have to explain it before it soaks in, but just because I write something doesn't mean I believe it to be fact. The reason I'm interested is because (if/could/may) have an impact on market activity.
Wasn't having a go at you James I was quoting Derek and you happened to be part of the quote. Sorry if it it came across as an attack on you.

Interesting idea though, if we're still talking about America how can the left be more gullible than the right? The right is where the evangelicals live, they make up about 25% of the electorate and you won't find a more gullible group of people than them. The right is where most of Fox News viewers come from and they've pedaled rubbish for years and have the highest viewership and ratings. Then there's right wing radio stations and YouTube channels that deal in conspiracy theories and worse.

There are obviously gullible people on both sides who believe what they want but its hard to make a case that the left is more gullible than the right.
I didn't think you were attacking me... I think we understand each others character. Taking offence to you would be like taking offence to Derek (which a lot of people do) but when you get to know his character a bit more you start to realise that generally he's just being Derek.

I want to respond to your second part in more depth but I was confusing Liberal & Conservative with Left & Right, which in general im assuming is the assumption.

Anyway, what I meant by it is the definition in the screen shots above. The rest of what you say is a whole other debate, one I'd have very little chance of winning.
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Derek27
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Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:22 pm
There are obviously gullible people on both sides who believe what they want but its hard to make a case that the left is more gullible than the right.
Especially when Trump claims to have won the election "by a lot" and tens of millions of Republicans believe him. :lol:
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Derek27
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Location: UK

jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:37 pm
Anyway, what I meant by it is the definition in the screen shots above.
Being accepting of other peoples views and open to new ideas is far removed from being gullible. Gullibility is more believing and jumping into the camp.
jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:27 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:37 pm
Anyway, what I meant by it is the definition in the screen shots above.
Being accepting of other peoples views and open to new ideas is far removed from being gullible. Gullibility is more believing and jumping into the camp.
"More susceptible" was what I used & I stick by it. If you're more open you're certainly more susceptible.... most likely more successful too.
verance
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https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us ... 0-204.html

The Exchange was briefly suspended at [17:00] this afternoon (Nov 27) to clear unmatched bets. It has now reopened for customers to trade their positions.
Did anybody else have unmatched bets that were cancelled? Seems to me all the big chunks laying the 1000s weren't cancelled (or at least they were all back up by 5.30 Friday evening when I checked)?
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