Today's Cricket

[JA89]

I don't often trade test cricket but I was keenly watching the start of the SA v PAK match and Pakistan firmed from $1.81 to $1.72 in literally 30 seconds just before the first ball was bowled. Is this normal??

[JA89]

And it wasn't related to the toss, that had happened well beforehand. Just seemed crazy to me.

[abgespaced]

Does anyone else think the draw price for England v India is too low at 2.18? It’s only day 2 and no weather forecast.

[Barrakee]

Does anyone else think the draw price for England v India is too low at 2.18? It’s only day 2 and no weather forecast.

It probably is a bit but I am a bit more cautious laying the draw here than normal. England's spinners are fairly toothless and apparently this pitch doesn't normally break up as much as other Asian pitches.

[Emmson]

Does anyone else think the draw price for England v India is too low at 2.18? It’s only day 2 and no weather forecast.

Yes very much so but what if we're wrong? India made 759 declared here last time, draw layers may have to sweat.

[abgespaced]

Does anyone else think the draw price for England v India is too low at 2.18? It’s only day 2 and no weather forecast.

Yes very much so but what if we're wrong? India made 759 declared here last time, draw layers may have to sweat.

Then it’s a good bet no? If it’s already a good price. Or you saying it should be lower given India’s last performance?

I laid above the current price but the only thing I’m sweating on is whether to double down or not. I’ve yet to see a draw price go from 4 to 1.01 in a straight line without weather involved.

Even in the India v Aus game the draw went under 2 and came back up 10 times at least and the draw was on the cards right up until the last session.

[abgespaced]

IMHO, u will not be in a position to make $1000 a test until u have all the tools - whether they be data analysis, order flow analysis, pictures etc.

Although I am still learning, test cricket is the first thing that I have become consistently profitable at trading (I think growing up watching the sport helped). My profit looks like a straight line almost, so now it’s just a matter of learning to scale within the bounds of my comfort/psychology.

I have most of the tools, can you tell me if order flow is applicable in this game? My understanding is that it’s an approach that can be used without any of the other tools, but when combined with a deep understanding of the game, average odds and live pictures that it becomes less relevant.

Perhaps it’s a good way to estimate what a market will do independent of the game? But will always take a backseat to the reality on the ground?

[Emmson]

Got a sweet position on this Chennai test now, then again I had a sweet position on day 2 Adelaide.

[Emmson]

Draw is likely going sub 1.5 probably today.

[megarain]

IMHO, u will not be in a position to make $1000 a test until u have all the tools - whether they be data analysis, order flow analysis, pictures etc.

I have most of the tools, can you tell me if order flow is applicable in this game? My understanding is that it’s an approach that can be used without any of the other tools, but when combined with a deep understanding of the game, average odds and live pictures that it becomes less relevant.

Order flow is useful in certain situations.

I also thought 2.x or whatver the draw was plenty short enuf - but am looking for a miracle to avoid losing a huge number.

The ground does have a history for big inngs - so, maybe it was irresponsible to have such a view against it.

I hope the pitch wears quickly on days 4/5, but its not great to be just hoping.

[Emmson]

Windies on track to mug Bangladesh in Bangladesh, not an easy task. Not had a single bet on game

[Barrakee]

Windies on track to mug Bangladesh in Bangladesh, not an easy task. Not had a single bet on game

Awesome game. Cost me a lot of money but good for test cricket. I wonder if T20 cricket has increased a teams ability to chase in test matches?

[abgespaced]

Disappointing end to the day. England dragging their feet a bit giving India a breather into day 4.

Draw spiked to 2.7 after first 4 wickets but went straight back down under 2 where it’s been most the game. Can’t stand these kind of games! It one of those ones where you cash out for nothing or hold til the bitter end for a result that could go either way. Difficult to trade when it barely moves.

Only way I can see England winning is forcing the follow on. If they bat again they’ll only leave themselves one day to bowl India out and they’ve been lucky to get away with so many wickets as it is, hard to see them breaking through a turtling Indian side.

Edit: I’m new to this. If my reasoning is off I’d appreciate an alternative opinion!

[megarain]

As a rule, it’s generally harder to bat on day 5.

I would expect Eng not to enforce follow on.

[firlandsfarm]

As a rule, it’s generally harder to bat on day 5.

I would expect Eng not to enforce follow on.

Agreed, especially in the sub-continent, but England need to be able to declare tonight and have a little go at India before the close.