Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

So slightly negative week again with slightly modified green strategy:
Net: -£2.69
Strike rate: 49%

PnLChart2.jpg

[goat68]

Scatter chart for the week, Profit vs Back/Lay Entries:

Scatter1.jpg

[goat68]

So done some analysis, and determined 2 correlations that may improve things, based on this weeks data and profit:
This week: -£2.69
Based on this week's data correlation 1 estimate would be: +£7.25, so quite a significant difference. Correlation 2 would be +£8.15, but I'm not convinced by it in terms of a valid model.
Scatter chart for this modified correlation1:

Scatter2.jpg

[goat68]

bot off to an awful start to the week...
I forgot what happened in the markets last week doesn't happen this week, LOL !
I think this is the difficulty with Automation, as opposed to manual trading where you feel gut thoughts about what is or isn't going to work, it's difficult to automate that !

[goat68]

Hmm, am starting to wonder if changing green strategy to use Best Reverse Price was wise or not, seen another 2 big winners go without me today, just left with the losers! Suspecting my entry might be expecting a momentum move type entry.. we will see how the week pans out...

[beermonsterman]

Could just be a Monday thing I've heard people say in the past they dont even turn the computer on on a Monday I wonder what everyone's opinion of this would be here

[beermonsterman]

Look at this for instance weak Irish market this these are the markets i sit on my hands with

[ShaunWhite]

Could just be a Monday thing I've heard people say in the past they dont even turn the computer on on a Monday I wonder what everyone's opinion of this would be here

Depends on how much you need to earn, missing days is a luxury you can only afford if the working days already pay the bills. There's people who make a good living just from dogs so any sort of horse market feels like Cheltenham compared to those so they're definately tradable. You won't make 5 grand a day obviously but unless you're Claudia Schiffer and won't get out of bed for less than 10 grand then there's always a few hundered that can be pulled out of any given day.

tbh the majority of markets 247 on BF are pretty weak, so I think people should work on those first as their bread and butter, and when things are stronger, that's the cherry. Otherwise when there's a quiet day you're left doing nothing.

[beermonsterman]

Makes perfect sense thanks shaun

[speedyhamster]

Could just be a Monday thing I've heard people say in the past they dont even turn the computer on on a Monday I wonder what everyone's opinion of this would be here

Depends on how much you need to earn, missing days is a luxury you can only afford if the working days already pay the bills. There's people who make a good living just from dogs so any sort of horse market feels like Cheltenham compared to those so they're definately tradable. You won't make 5 grand a day obviously but unless you're Claudia Schiffer and won't get out of bed for less than 10 grand then there's always a few hundered that can be pulled out of any given day.

tbh the majority of markets 247 on BF are pretty weak, so I think people should work on those first as their bread and butter, and when things are stronger, that's the cherry. Otherwise when there's a quiet day you're left doing nothing.

Good advice

[ShaunWhite]

If you want advice on weak markets then Derek is the man you want to listen to. If logon at 4am you'll find him squeezing a living out of horse races smaller than a UK dog race. I understand the attraction of bigger markets but unless you're staking in the 1000s then you can still pick up the steady 1,2, £3s that add up on the small stuff. Just don't try to be a hero and stake small until you get the hang of it.

[Realrocknrolla]

If you want advice on weak markets then Derek is the man you want to listen to. If logon at 4am you'll find him squeezing a living out of horse races smaller than a UK dog race. I understand the attraction of bigger markets but unless you're staking in the 1000s then you can still pick up the steady 1,2, £3s that add up on the small stuff. Just don't try to be a hero and stake small until you get the hang of it.

Fantastic advice.

[speedyhamster]

So another interesting video, Peter's recent one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6eN7u326TI
and it's not so much the video that interests me, although it is good!, It's one of his replies to one of the comments:
" I think half the skill to be honest, is to think about what people are thinking about."
So this is what i've been trying to do, and I know i've not really got much experience to go on, so a bit stupid really! but the theory I was thinking is to work out what other traders are thinking and trading, and trader contrary to them, combined with a bit of trade support (crossover, round number, etc...) The problem I guess is not to try and think too smart, otherwise your trading against the winning Smart 5% and joining the losing 95% !!!!

"Ninety-five percent of the trading errors you are likely to make—causing the money to just evaporate
before your eyes—will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and
leaving money on the table."

"If you're afraid of being wrong, your fear will act upon your perception
of market information in a way that will cause you to do something that ends up making you wrong.
When you are fearful, no other possibilities exist. You can't perceive other possibilities or act on them
properly, even if you did manage to perceive them, because fear is immobilizing. Physically, it causes
us to freeze or run. Mentally, it causes us to narrow our focus of attention to the object of our fear. This
means that thoughts about other possibilities, as well as other available information from the market,
get blocked."

[speedyhamster]

My equity curve for the last 2 weeks trading this strategy, notice any trends yet??!

HorseProfit.jpg

Manual trading v Automation charts
random trading patterns (equity charts)

So slightly negative week again with slightly modified green strategy:
Net: -£2.69
Strike rate: 49%

PnLChart2.jpg

[Derek27]

So another interesting video, Peter's recent one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6eN7u326TI
and it's not so much the video that interests me, although it is good!, It's one of his replies to one of the comments:
" I think half the skill to be honest, is to think about what people are thinking about."
So this is what i've been trying to do...

After all the conspiracy theorists I've been arguing with in the last couple of months, I've given up trying to imagine or make sense of, nevermind think of what other people are thinking.