Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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speedyhamster
Posts: 119
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:58 am

"Understanding the markets will give you the edge you need to create some winning trades, but your
edge won't make you a consistent winner if you don't have a winning attitude. Certainly one could
argue that some traders lose because they don't understand enough about the markets and therefore they usually pick the wrong trades. As reasonable as this may sound, it has been my experience that traders with losing attitudes pick the wrong trades regardless of how much they know about the markets. In any case, the result is the same—they lose.
On the other hand, traders with winning attitudes who know virtually nothing about the markets can pick winners; and if they know a lot about the markets, they can pick even more winners. If you want to change your experience of the markets from fearful to confident, if you want to change your results from an erratic equity curve to a steadily rising one, the first step is to embrace the responsibility and stop expecting the market to give you anything or do anything for you. If you resolve from this point forward to do it all yourself, the market can no longer be your opponent. If you stop fighting the market, which in effect means you stop fighting yourself, you'll be amazed at how quickly you will recognize exactly what you need to learn, and how quickly you will learn it. Taking responsibility is the cornerstone of a winning attitude.
Developing a winning attitude is the key to your success. The problem for many traders is
that either they think they already have one, when they don't, or they expect the market to develop the attitude for them by giving them winning trades. You are responsible for developing your own winning attitude. The market is not going to do it for you, and, I want to be as emphatic as I can, no amount of market analysis will compensate for developing a winning attitude if you lack one."

my final post on physiology on this thread
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beermonsterman
Posts: 522
Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:47 pm
Location: Birmingham UK

speedyhamster wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:14 am
"Understanding the markets will give you the edge you need to create some winning trades, but your
edge won't make you a consistent winner if you don't have a winning attitude. Certainly one could
argue that some traders lose because they don't understand enough about the markets and therefore they usually pick the wrong trades. As reasonable as this may sound, it has been my experience that traders with losing attitudes pick the wrong trades regardless of how much they know about the markets. In any case, the result is the same—they lose.
On the other hand, traders with winning attitudes who know virtually nothing about the markets can pick winners; and if they know a lot about the markets, they can pick even more winners. If you want to change your experience of the markets from fearful to confident, if you want to change your results from an erratic equity curve to a steadily rising one, the first step is to embrace the responsibility and stop expecting the market to give you anything or do anything for you. If you resolve from this point forward to do it all yourself, the market can no longer be your opponent. If you stop fighting the market, which in effect means you stop fighting yourself, you'll be amazed at how quickly you will recognize exactly what you need to learn, and how quickly you will learn it. Taking responsibility is the cornerstone of a winning attitude.
Developing a winning attitude is the key to your success. The problem for many traders is
that either they think they already have one, when they don't, or they expect the market to develop the attitude for them by giving them winning trades. You are responsible for developing your own winning attitude. The market is not going to do it for you, and, I want to be as emphatic as I can, no amount of market analysis will compensate for developing a winning attitude if you lack one."

my final post on physiology on this thread
Nice one 👍 can relate to all that
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

speedyhamster wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:14 am
"Understanding the markets will give you the edge you need to create some winning trades, but your
edge won't make you a consistent winner if you don't have a winning attitude. Certainly one could
argue that some traders lose because they don't understand enough about the markets and therefore they usually pick the wrong trades. As reasonable as this may sound, it has been my experience that traders with losing attitudes pick the wrong trades regardless of how much they know about the markets. In any case, the result is the same—they lose.
On the other hand, traders with winning attitudes who know virtually nothing about the markets can pick winners; and if they know a lot about the markets, they can pick even more winners. If you want to change your experience of the markets from fearful to confident, if you want to change your results from an erratic equity curve to a steadily rising one, the first step is to embrace the responsibility and stop expecting the market to give you anything or do anything for you. If you resolve from this point forward to do it all yourself, the market can no longer be your opponent. If you stop fighting the market, which in effect means you stop fighting yourself, you'll be amazed at how quickly you will recognize exactly what you need to learn, and how quickly you will learn it. Taking responsibility is the cornerstone of a winning attitude.
Developing a winning attitude is the key to your success. The problem for many traders is
that either they think they already have one, when they don't, or they expect the market to develop the attitude for them by giving them winning trades. You are responsible for developing your own winning attitude. The market is not going to do it for you, and, I want to be as emphatic as I can, no amount of market analysis will compensate for developing a winning attitude if you lack one."

my final post on physiology on this thread
yeah, nice posts speedy, i'm feeling good on my automated data analysis approach i'm now embarking on, cheers
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So had some time to try manual trading a few markets today for a change, probably a lucky streak... however my manual method is not very automatable, sort of objective feeling comparing the horses, with a bit of what's unlikely to happen...?
28Feb.jpg
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:23 pm
So had some time to try manual trading a few markets today for a change, probably a lucky streak... however my manual method is not very automatable, sort of objective feeling comparing the horses, with a bit of what's unlikely to happen...?
28Feb.jpg
9 in a row is a 2^9 shot. Personally I feel the whole concept of 'luck' is best left to the heather sellers so I think you can pat yourself on the back. Small word of warning, people do sometimes make manual profits fairly early on, but complacency and the inevitable cockups can throw you off course.

Great results though.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:49 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:23 pm
So had some time to try manual trading a few markets today for a change, probably a lucky streak... however my manual method is not very automatable, sort of objective feeling comparing the horses, with a bit of what's unlikely to happen...?
28Feb.jpg
9 in a row is a 2^9 shot. Personally I feel the whole concept of 'luck' is best left to the heather sellers so I think you can pat yourself on the back. Small word of warning, people do sometimes make manual profits fairly early on, but complacency and the inevitable cockups can throw you off course.

Great results though.
Thanks Shaun. It did however remind me something I saw that I want to try and automate, something that is difficult to do manually due to speed, but obviously a bot can handle..
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The Silk Run
Posts: 902
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
Location: United Kingdom

Shaun shares a lot of sense, and good advice, masterclass.
Have you tried the automation file on the internationals, ie USA, Australia, if it's not working in the kingdom. You may, or not be pleasantly surprised. Also, some horse racing automation with tweaks can be used on greyhound markets. Just a thought G, we all want you to succeed ;)
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speedyhamster
Posts: 119
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:58 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:12 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:49 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:23 pm
So had some time to try manual trading a few markets today for a change, probably a lucky streak... however my manual method is not very automatable, sort of objective feeling comparing the horses, with a bit of what's unlikely to happen...?
28Feb.jpg
9 in a row is a 2^9 shot. Personally I feel the whole concept of 'luck' is best left to the heather sellers so I think you can pat yourself on the back. Small word of warning, people do sometimes make manual profits fairly early on, but complacency and the inevitable cockups can throw you off course.

Great results though.
Thanks Shaun. It did however remind me something I saw that I want to try and automate, something that is difficult to do manually due to speed, but obviously a bot can handle..
would a servent be able to do what you want to do?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So someone posted a reply on Slack that made me think a bit more on why some of my bot strategies are losers...basically if I create a bot strategy that triggers an entry at a given market signal (X), and then holds out until the "off", what i'm basically saying is at point X my "signal" has determined that that price has "value" compared to BSP. In reality you've got no way from a market price/volume/traded/(or whatever) of knowing it is value compared to BSP, hence strategy at best will be net random (zero) before commission.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

However..., it's possible some market signal(X), could imply someone else might buy/sell after me... over a macro timescale, which implies "value" over that timescale.
Korattt
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Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

good stuff Goaty, great consistency
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading as long as you limit what you do to a time-frame in which you try to position yourself in font of somebody else.
 
 I find it naive to believe that the real chances of a selection are influenced by how the orders flow.  Yes, the wisdom of the crowd often leads close to the right price, but this is not always the case.

 To make money with a betting strategy you need value, but in trading you just have to be among the first to do the same thing as others taking advantage of volatility.   I trade a lot and I don't care about value I just surf. 🏄
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:15 am
IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.
Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:27 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:15 am
IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.
Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.
+1 there is no opinion on it, you need value to make money, it's basic maths.
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:27 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:15 am
IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.
Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.
I see things differently.
As long as you back and lay the same selection at sensible intervals and hedge you are not interested about value.
The correct price(real probability) does not fluctuate as the market price fluctuates before in-play because both depend on totally different variables.
When you place a bet it can be good value bad value or the right price. You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.
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