Trading What I see !?

[Trader724]

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.

Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

+1 there is no opinion on it, you need value to make money, it's basic maths.

Can you please tell me, if you trade at random, how many bets are good value and how many are bad value?

[Trader724]

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

That's exactly what I said before, but it's different from what you say above that you need to have value on both bets.
There is no confusion, from the start it is understandable that when you place two bets on the same selection at different prices most often one of the bets has less value than the other but you can make a profit even so.

[alexmr2]

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.

Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

I see things differently.
As long as you back and lay the same selection at sensible intervals and hedge you are not interested about value.
The correct price(real probability) does not fluctuate as the market price fluctuates before in-play because both depend on totally different variables.
When you place a bet it can be good value bad value or the right price. You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

So basically traders need value positions of the next short-term move (not neccesarily to know the true odds of the runner), value bettors/professional punters need the true odds?

E.g a horse is drifting and there is more chance that it will continue for another impulse based on reading the market even if it has just gone past the true odds

[HorseDark]

Can you please tell me, if you trade at random, how many bets are good value and how many are bad value?

If you have a profitable trade, at least one of your bets will be at good value, the other could be at bad value. Speaking for myself, I don't know which one that is until SP is known.

You don't need to "calculate" value to make a profit.

[Trader724]

Can you please tell me, if you trade at random, how many bets are good value and how many are bad value?

If you have a profitable trade, at least one of your bets will be at good value, the other could be at bad value. Speaking for myself, I don't know which one that is until SP is known.

You don't need to "calculate" value to make a profit.

Exactly

[jimibt]

You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet!

[Trader724]

You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet!

I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value

[jimibt]

You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet!

I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value

yup, like yourself, have been doing this a while. all i'm saying is that you (or should i say I) cannot depend on random fluctuations to guide my strategies. and yes, win or lose it's not about that; agreed - but entry and exit informs us (even if laterally) as to whether we've tuned into value in the trade or straight bet.

[ShaunWhite]

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

That's exactly what I said before, but it's different from what you say above that you need to have value on both bets.
There is no confusion, from the start it is understandable that when you place two bets on the same selection at different prices one of the bets has less value than the other but you can make a profit even so.

I said "one or both" bets. And them being on the same selection isn't relevant because you can group all your day's bets anyway you want and they still have the same bottom line.

[jamesg46]

You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet!

I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value

The confusion comes from what exactly is "value"! Is it taking a price that's better than SP? Yeah. Is it taking a trade that offers the potential for more upside than downside? Yeah. The perception of value doesn't have to come from what we believe a price should be, it can be personal strategy value too.... either way, you will only make money long term by taking value & be it you say you ignore value, you probably don't, you probably call it something else, like risk to reward.

[jamesg46]

I might think a break of 4.2 on Cuban Cigar could lead to a move to 5.0 (just as an example) with a bail out of a break below 4.0 so my upside potential would be considerably better than my downside, especially with below 4.0 having a decrease in increment size.... if that was my setup then I would consider that to be value to me & someone who I buy off who got in earlier is taking their value trade to the bank.... I have no idea what the SP will be and nor do I care.

[Trader724]

i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet!

I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value

The confusion comes from what exactly is "value"! Is it taking a price that's better than SP? Yeah. Is it taking a trade that offers the potential for more upside than downside? Yeah. The perception of value doesn't have to come from what we believe a price should be, it can be personal strategy value too.... either way, you will only make money long term by taking value & be it you say you ignore value, you probably don't, you probably call it something else, like risk to reward.

The correct price reflects the chances that the selection will win. The market price can be higher or lower than the correct price and any bet at the market price under these conditions has good value and bad value.
The difference between trading and betting is that with trading you can make a profit with bad value and good value, and with betting you can make a profit just with good value.

[Trader724]

I might think a break of 4.2 on Cuban Cigar could lead to a move to 5.0 (just as an example) with a bail out of a break below 4.0 so my upside potential would be considerably better than my downside, especially with below 4.0 having a decrease in increment size.... if that was my setup then I would consider that to be value to me & someone who I buy off who got in earlier is taking their value trade to the bank.... I have no idea what the SP will be and nor do I care.

Yeah sorry for your loss But profit doesn't mean value. Actually that's what I'm trying to say here.

[jamesg46]

I might think a break of 4.2 on Cuban Cigar could lead to a move to 5.0 (just as an example) with a bail out of a break below 4.0 so my upside potential would be considerably better than my downside, especially with below 4.0 having a decrease in increment size.... if that was my setup then I would consider that to be value to me & someone who I buy off who got in earlier is taking their value trade to the bank.... I have no idea what the SP will be and nor do I care.

Yeah sorry for your loss But profit doesn't mean value. Actually that's what I'm trying to say here.

I took the break of 5.6 on the 60 second chart on We Still Believe. I think the SP will be around 5s, I didn't care because the crossover point was working in my favour.

[Trader724]

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

That's exactly what I said before, but it's different from what you say above that you need to have value on both bets.
There is no confusion, from the start it is understandable that when you place two bets on the same selection at different prices one of the bets has less value than the other but you can make a profit even so.

I said "one or both" bets. And them being on the same selection isn't relevant because you can group all your day's bets anyway you want and they still have the same bottom line.

It is not the fact that the bets are on the same selection that matters, but that they are opposites so I don't care if the selection win or not. That becomes irrelevant.