Trading What I see !?

[Trader Pat]

Getting worse 14% wins now
So obviously this is not working, it does imply, and agrees with what someone told me, that all the price movements are random. So having a +3/-3 profit/loss, will be -ev, in fact anything will be -ev with commission.
It comes back to value, and I can't see how you can judge value other than via fundamentals (form, pace, runners, course,..), and someone told me on Slack that fundamentals is very advanced to be successful at. But how can you gain any value edge any other way? price movements are random, so you will never make any money...

This thread reminds me of Groundhog Day

You seem intent on making the same mistake over and over again. You've been told many times that 3 tick stop losses just don't work and will stop you out before your position can move into profit. You've also been advised to stop jumping from one strategy to another but there seems to be a new one every few days.

To be honest I wouldn't even bother responding to your posts as I find them generally very negative and self defeating but I make an exception for this one just because of how you signed off

price movements are random, so you will never make any money...

I take umbrage with this and I find it insulting to me personally and anybody who sits in front of a screen all day trading sports. What the hell do you think we're all doing, throwing darts and hoping one of them sticks? Price movements are not all random, a move on one horse leads to a move on another and if you bothered to take the advice you were given early on and just watch the markets you would see that.

I see two big problems with your approach, that you keep using narrow stop losses tells me that you're extremely risk averse which is a big problem in itself and the fact you're taking advice from somebody on slack who probably thinks a ladder is something you use when washing your windows speaks volumes. There is tons and tons of advice on this forum alone if only you were open to listening and also tons of videos and other resources to tap into.

I said very early on this thread that you seemed to be somebody who was looking for a shortcut and that's fine, that's how I started out but I realised very quickly that there was a lot of work involved and hundreds of hours watching markets required to get any kind of handle on what was going on. If you're not willing to do that you should probably stop wasting your time.

Good luck

[HorseDark]

price movements are random, so you will never make any money...

The underlying patterns in a market are formed by the accumulated habits of those involved. Nothing random about that!

Noise is something else...

A short stop will fail to "tune out" the noise.

[goat68]

So it was losing at such a bad rate 11 losses out of 13, i've just swapped it round to see if it does any better...

[ShaunWhite]

The confusion and crossed wires are simply around the definition of value. Value isn't just vs sp or the likelihood of winning. Value is obtaining a price better than the current fair market price at any time. And with no partucular time or price showing a bias vs sp (if only) then that fair market price at any time is analogous to bsp, and therefore the value is maintained regardless of the bsp 'value' in that specific market.

There's also a lot of crossed wires about this being about individual markets vs the general case. What you need to imagine is how a market would behave if it were to encapsulated every market simultaneously.

There's another way i approach things like this, when someone as successful as Liam (probably the most profitable regular forum visitor by some way) tells me something and I don't agree with it, I'm wrong and he's right, and it's my job to work out why he's right. And if he says something that appears insignificant, I've missed the point and I need to work on understanding why it's been said. It would be utterly ridiculous to think I knew better. I had a drink with Liam in Jan 2020, I used two ears and one mouth and then went away to think about it. Since then my return has tripled and it's been that way now for 13 straight months.

[Trader724]

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[goat68]

The confusion and crossed wires are simply around the definition of value. Value isn't just vs sp or the likelihood of winning. Value is obtaining a price better than the current fair market price at any time. And with no partucular time or price showing a bias vs sp (if only) then that fair market price at any time is analogous to bsp, and therefore the value is maintained regardless of the bsp 'value' in that specific market.

There's also a lot of crossed wires about this being about individual markets vs the general case. What you need to imagine is how a market would behave if it were to encapsulated every market simultaneously.

There's another way i approach things like this, when someone as successful as Liam (probably the most profitable regular forum visitor by some way) tells me something and I don't agree with it, I'm wrong and he's right, and it's my job to work out why he's right. And if he says something that appears insignificant, I've missed the point and I need to work on understanding why it's been said. It would be utterly ridiculous to think I knew better. I had a drink with Liam in Jan 2020, I used two ears and one mouth and then went away to think about it. Since then my return has tripled and it's been that way now for 13 straight months.

thanks Shaun, i'm still confused by "current fair market price at any time", fair market price at any time is purely "opinion" isn't it? and thus could be anything as everyone has a different opinion? thus there is no one price? so how could any algo have any indication of what fair price is at any time?

[goat68]

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the best post today, like it!

[Mr.Teeny]

Sounds like you’re wasting your time on here , goat68.

If you really want to make it, maybe you should ask Liam out for a drink?!

[goat68]

Sounds like you’re wasting your time on here , goat68.

If you really want to make it, maybe you should ask Liam out for a drink?!

another great post, yeah sounds like a plan, Liam?

[jimibt]

Sounds like you’re wasting your time on here , goat68.

If you really want to make it, maybe you should ask Liam out for a drink?!

now here's the thing..... since jan 2020 !!!

[ShaunWhite]

thanks Shaun, i'm still confused by "current fair market price at any time", fair market price at any time is purely "opinion" isn't it? and thus could be anything as everyone has a different opinion? thus there is no one price? so how could any algo have any indication of what fair price is at any time?

Prices are a product of the hive mind, so yes its opinion and yes they all differ. That's what makes a market. The "current fair market value" can be derenined in many ways and it's rarely the current touch price. . Swing traders might look at order flow and conclude the market is in the wrong place and will adjust (that's how they get 'value') . Others might look at vwap, Vpoc, moving averages, WoM or their own homegrown formula etc etc etc to make their decision that whatever the touch price is now, its wrong.

Maybe consider a market where there's £1 matched in the best 3 back prices with big gaps. And £1000 matched at the best 3 lay prices. The 'hive' certainly aren't saying the fair price is the mid price. Swingers would certainly be thinking the value point is elsewhere and be looking for things to move. Bit of an oversimplification but the current mid price isn't always the price the hive is saying is fair. It's tricky but if you see an orange on sale for 10p and the 10000 other oranges sold that day went for £1 each, you know it's a cheap (value) orange even though that's the current price.

[ShaunWhite]

Sounds like you’re wasting your time on here , goat68.

If you really want to make it, maybe you should ask Liam out for a drink?!

Lol it's was just at the traders drinks lots of people went to incl Peter, 20 or 30 people, I didn't ask him for a date and buy him flowers.

[ShaunWhite]

now here's the thing..... since jan 2020 !!!

? Was doing OK before that but it definatly boosted after breathing the same air as some of those high rollers. Pretty humbling really when there's 5 multi-millionaire traders chatting and you're trying to not look like a fool

[jimibt]

now here's the thing..... since jan 2020 !!!

? Was doing OK before that but it definatly boosted after breathing the same air as some of those high rollers. Pretty humbling really when there's 5 multi-millionaire traders chatting and you're trying to not look like a fool

shaun- my comment missed the *mark*. it was squared at Mr Teeny in jest re *who's managed to go out for drinks since jan 2020*

that said, in company like that you really need to have your clones with you to interrogate them all at the same time - gold in tham thar hills

[ShaunWhite]

that said, in company like that you really need to have your clones with you to interrogate them all at the same time - gold in tham thar hills

yeah it's a balancing act, be knowedgable enough not to be the class clown, but not so much you daren't ask questions. The question is, what questions!

There's no great secrets. I mentioned closing, he said "why are you closing", and I said "mmm good question". That's all it was really. I've got someone else to thank big time for most of the other 'value' stuff which was really the major turning point...tbh Jim I don't have any original thought.