Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

trader puts £50 total on a series of trades that statistically should net a profit, but his day goes like this win win lose win lose lose lose, he loses £25, he ends up getting frustrated that he has lost £25, starts blaming the markets, changes his trading plan etc.

the same trader goes to the bar puts £50 in the slot machine comes away with £25 (loses £25) and comes away having enjoyed the slots with no worries about losing the £25

what is the difference?

You know a slot machine is random so you don't expect a payout every time, having this mindset and following your trading plan execution flawlessly (making money on it is a secondary bonus not your goal) can get rid of trading fears, helping you look at it in longer term not each individual trade.

Yes, I see what you're saying.
But at the moment I am not confident of any "trading plan" that may have +ve expectancy...I just can't get my head around how can you make money from a market (exchange of bets) in which the participants vary continuously and you've no idea what they're going to do next... I know it's possible, i've seen enough PnL graphs from you lot that just continually go up...
Anyway, i've taken the plunge and bought another "year" of Bet Angel subscription, but i'm not in a very positive mood, i've got all this data but I can't seem to see the woods for the trees...
As someone earlier mentioned pick a small area and examine it... so i'm going to pick "LastTradedPrice" variation and see if I can find any trends or "opportunities" in it...

[goat68]

I'm also going to look back in the 20mins->5mins time frame, as it seems the markets are far too efficient from 5mins, and at 2mins you get "syndicate" positioning which causes big moves but you've no idea what model they are using..so impossible to anticipate.

[ShaunWhite]

What's the general approach goat, manual or auto?
And how long are you expecting to hold your open positions? Remember it's a heck of a lot easier to be looking fwd in 3s chucks than it is to try to guess where things will be minutes ahead. It's continual assessment not fortune telling.

[goat68]

What's the general approach goat, manual or auto?
And how long are you expecting to hold your open positions? Remember it's a heck of a lot easier to be looking fwd in 3s chucks than it is to try to guess where things will be minutes ahead. It's continual assessment not fortune telling.

has to be Auto, I have a day job
So 3 second time spans makes sense for Auto, that's essentially scalping. Trying to assess whether a given runner is being backed at this instant, and try to get a couple of ticks...
I'm trying to think along the lines of "this is a market", so people are backing Horses in exchange with someone who wants to lay it...so to make money you've got to find the opportunities where the majority are wanting to do the wrong thing! ie.the price movement goes up but everyone thinks it should be going down...

[goat68]

I'm also just looking at technicals, price, volume, matched amounts etc.... In reality participants are not just doing that, they are mainly punters/traders watching the horses in the ring. So maybe trying to pull in "fundamentals" to the bot might help, but i've been told that is super hard to model.

[goat68]

Another approach ive thought about is just pick a strategy like back a horse that breaks below a crossover point. Then try and target the markets and profiles it tends to work on... the only issue there is i maybe backfitting, and rolling forward may still be -ev

[jamesg46]

I'm also just looking at technicals, price, volume, matched amounts etc.... In reality participants are not just doing that, they are mainly punters/traders watching the horses in the ring. So maybe trying to pull in "fundamentals" to the bot might help, but i've been told that is super hard to model.

If you're going to incorporate technicals into automation then I recommend looking up and researching candle stick math... that way you can give your automation some objective information.

[TLindeth]

I'm also going to look back in the 20mins->5mins time frame, as it seems the markets are far too efficient from 5mins, and at 2mins you get "syndicate" positioning which causes big moves but you've no idea what model they are using..so impossible to anticipate.

If you’re seeing something happen at the same time in most markets maybe it would help to investigate this specific occurrence a bit further? Perhaps focus on a period of time and see if your data capture is returning anything interesting in this period?

[jamesg46]

https://youtu.be/4QWPtgmAFo0

[ShaunWhite]

So 3 second time spans makes sense for Auto, that's essentially scalping.

Not really, you can hold a position for an hour if you want but might want to assess it regularly rather than just when it's placed. Like I said continual assessment rather than long term guesses.

[Trader724]

https://youtu.be/4QWPtgmAFo0

Interesting video. If anyone else has another video entitled "Get Rich In One Day" please post a link here.

[jamesg46]

https://youtu.be/4QWPtgmAFo0

Interesting video. If anyone else has another video entitled "Get Rich In One Day" please post a link here.

I don't really care about the title of the video, more the context of the content, which was about candlestick math. It was simply suggesting that it's a way of getting info to automation about price action.

If anyone else has any utterly useless things to say that offer absolutely no value to anyone, post your comment here.

Better yet, we can dredge up some of your old advice, just as a reminder of where goat should be looking in order to achieve profitability, which is don't care about value and just look for the market to wave at you.

[jamesg46]

Tbh I didn't notice the get rich in a day in the title of the previous video I posted so I'll try again.

https://youtu.be/_7kTr0Tfyl8

[Mr.Teeny]

https://youtu.be/-ohT6EBhh4o

[Trader Pat]

If anyone else has any utterly useless things to say that offer absolutely no value to anyone, post your comment here.

I've been doing that for years!

Genuine question the whole candlestick maths strategy is it transferable to sports trading? There's so much stuff out there thats specific to financial markets I'm not sure how much of it can be adapted to sports markets