Today's Horse Racing

[arbitrage16]

Just had a conversation with a punter, who backed a runner at 50/1 on Betfred that went on to win.

I'm trying to show them that exchange betting is the way, and that the same runner was between 70 and 113/1.

Their response "Yes, but I might not have backed it if I'd seen those odds."

Can someone ELI5 why that is a ridiculous argument please?

Sadly this type of ignorance is common place. It would be more productive to stir soup with a fork than explain the benefits of exchanges to most punters.

Heard many excuses for not using an exchange but thats the first time I think I've heard that one

he is 85 so we'll cut him some slack.

What I'm trying to understand is why that thinking is flawed - he thinks that the odds reflect the probability of it winning, presumably, so why is that incorrect?

[Derek27]

Sadly this type of ignorance is common place. It would be more productive to stir soup with a fork than explain the benefits of exchanges to most punters.

Heard many excuses for not using an exchange but thats the first time I think I've heard that one

he is 85 so we'll cut him some slack.

What I'm trying to understand is why that thinking is flawed - he thinks that the odds reflect the probability of it winning, presumably, so why is that incorrect?

If that's what he thinks why did he back a 50/1? In fairness, at that age, he's not likely to learn about value. When a first time out two-year-old has a price that doesn't correlate to its pedigree you know it's not fully tuned up for its debut, but generally in my betting days if the horse I was interested in was drifting I'd have more on.

[Derek27]

6 out of 6 so far. A break from racing seems to have revitalised me.

[ShaunWhite]

Heard many excuses for not using an exchange but thats the first time I think I've heard that one

he is 85 so we'll cut him some slack.

What I'm trying to understand is why that thinking is flawed - he thinks that the odds reflect the probability of it winning, presumably, so why is that incorrect?

If that's what he thinks why did he back a 50/1? In fairness, at that age, he's not likely to learn about value. When a first time out two-year-old has a price that doesn't correlate to its pedigree you know it's not fully tuned up for its debut, but generally in my betting days if the horse I was interested in was drifting I'd have more on.

Maybe after a lifetime of betting he's suspicious of horses priced that much higher than he thinks they should be? That said a 2% chance being priced as a 1% chance isn't so crazy.

These old guys know they're not going to win, so why go through the agro of using exchanges just to lose a little bit slower? It's just a bit of light entertainment not a way to feed the family afterall.

[alexmr2]

Just had a conversation with a punter, who backed a runner at 50/1 on Betfred that went on to win.

I'm trying to show them that exchange betting is the way, and that the same runner was between 70 and 113/1.

Their response "Yes, but I might not have backed it if I'd seen those odds."

Can someone ELI5 why that is a ridiculous argument please?

You can lead a horse into a shop but can't make it choose the best value brand of bottled water.

This attitude is exactly one of the reasons I was drawn to trading, the inability of the majority to understand basic maths especially when it comes to betting. I told countless people about matched betting, exchanges and how bookmakers have margins which are impossible to beat in the long term yet they continued to bet with them. People like what they are used to and often refuse to put any basic research in to get more value. It's near impossible to change most people's opinions and it always amazes me.

You can explain to someone why a brand new £30k car isn't cheaper than a 5 year old already depreciated one just because they will save £150 a year on road tax but they will still do it.
You can explain why a £100 designer t-shit doesn't offer you 20x more value than a £5 plain one but they will still buy it.
You can explain why Brand A phones are better and cheaper than Brand B but they have already formed an opinion that Brand B is the best.

[underx]

Does anyone know during what period of the year the big events start coming up? Approximately what months to look for.

Thanks

[Dallas]

Does anyone know during what period of the year the big events start coming up? Approximately what months to look for.

Thanks

You've got Chelt coming up next week which has the biggest turnover of any festival, shortly followed by the Grand National early in April, that pretty much the end of the NH (jumps) season and we transition into the flat.

First major flat meeting is the Guineas in May and then the pace of flat festivals ramps up to peak in June then tails off till sept/oct

There's a few blogs here which might help
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/seas ... se-racing/
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/betf ... g-seasons/

Or you can download the full racing fixture and major racing fixture list for 2021 here

[underx]

Thank you so much Dallas, much helpful as always!

[xtrader16]

Holly Doyle teaching the boys how to ride at Linfield. Top jockey.

[Yantraman]

.... some huge drifts on favs in the first few races today!!!

[xtrader16]

Terrible looking fall for raffle ticket at Hereford there. The more I watch Horse racing the more I dont like the horses dying on the track. I've watched Horse Racing since I was 15 but I didnt realise how many horse die on track until about 3-4 years ago.

Check out the website horsedeathwatch.com it truely shocking.

12 dead in March 2021 and its only the 13th.....looks like Raffle Ticket is Ok. Good News.

[xtrader16]

For the life of me I cannot suss-out where the money is going when the timer hits 01:55.

For me, this is a trigger for either one or multiple bots. I believe it is one bot (dont ask me why) It takes £4-5000 out of the market but its not to trade it is to back or lay outright because the price rarely come back so the trade would never be in profit. So it is somebody backing or laying. This obviously sets off a chain reaction on other ladders due to cross matching. It has to be a Bookie offsetting liabilites.

Ive have studied ALL aspects of the market and cannot work out why it goes up or down for those 5 seconds from 01:55 -> 01:50. Why on some races does the money back the FAV & on some races it lays the Fav.

Its becoming a bit little what-a-mole at 01:55 --- Can anybody shed some light on this. Please dont reply saying it doesnt happen or it just normal.

[Mr.Teeny]

For the life of me I cannot suss-out where the money is going when the timer hits 01:55.

For me, this is a trigger for either one or multiple bots. I believe it is one bot (dont ask me why) It takes £4-5000 out of the market but its not to trade it is to back or lay outright because the price rarely come back so the trade would never be in profit. So it is somebody backing or laying. This obviously setts off a chain reation on other ladders due to cross matching.

Ive have studied ALL aspects of the market and cannot work out why it goes up or down for those 5 seconds from 01:55 -> 01:50. Why on some races does the money back the FAV & on some races it lays the Fav.

Its becoming a bit little what-a-mole at 01:55 --- Can anybody shed some light on this. Please dont reply saying it doesnt happen or it just normal.

It’s probably just an algo belonging to a big player/syndicate.

I would imagine it is constantly evaluating/ re-evaluating what the true price should be, and then late on, when there is maximum liquidity, and more information is known, it makes a final calculation to what it believes the true prices should be, and then the odds move accordingly.

It’s not just going to back or lay the favourite every time for the sake of it. If it thinks the favourite is good value it will back it, if it thinks it is bad value it will lay, right up to the point where it thinks the true price should be.

All the carnage is probably cross matching, other bots, other gamblers/ traders all adjusting their positions accordingly.

Don’t see why you get so hung up about it, it’s been going on for years.

[xtrader16]

Thanks I appreciate the reply.

The reason "I am getting hung up on it" (not being funny by the way) is - if I can work out where the money is going I can try and get ahead of it and make a few extra quid. I know it been there for a while there doesnt seem to be any ryhme or reason to it.

Ive tested the movements into the race results and there doesnt seem to be any connection into the ladder movement and the race result. If anything it is the exact opposite. If I/we worked out how/why it operated we could get in front of it and take a position with huge stakes and little risk.

Unless you lot already know and I'm playing catch up...as usual. Anybody intrested in helping to get in front of this give me a shout.

[Mr.Teeny]

I haven’t got a clue how it works, I’ve no experience of it, I’m just guessing.

People on here who do know how these types of traders/gamblers operate have often said that they like high turnover, low margin. So whilst the results may seem to not correlate with the moves, it’s worth remembering that they are only looking for value, and some operate at very low margins. Though if you are turning over hundreds of thousands, even a 1% ROI will give you huge returns.

If you are convinced all the moves are wrong and they are pushing the prices the wrong way, then you can always oppose the moves late on, if you think they are creating and giving away value.

As for getting ahead of it, I’m sure they are using pretty complex algorithms and advanced data techniques to come up with their prices. So unless you can price better than they can and pre empt their moves I’m not sure how you would be able to do that ?

I could be wrong about all of that, it’s pure speculation on my part. Though I’m pretty sure their algos will be a lot more advanced than just “ back the fav at 01.55 minutes to post “ in every race. As more data comes in, the algo might all of a sudden decide that the value is now with backing and not with laying, and then you see the prices reverse.