Today's Horse Racing

[arbitrage16]

Cheers Pat, seems to be back now....

[alexmr2]

Good start but the rest of the day looks quite poor/not suited to my style. Think I'll go out and enjoy the sun

[ShaunWhite]

Does it stand to reason that everyone trying to learn will find it impossible until one of the big players steps down? It just amazes me how so many of us struggle and a select few seem to be head and shoulders above.

Any market can only yield a given amount of profit that we're all trying to get a share of. That's less than 1% on a market with a tight book so on a 100k market, there's under £1000 up for grabs, and with 2, 3, 400 traders you don't need many taking a big slice of the pie for the rest to be fighting over scraps.

[Realrocknrolla]

http://tv.greyhoundbrasil.com/

Top left screen shows ATR races and the bottom left screen shows the Racing TV races and plays some music between the races!

I'm guessing its well behind live video but might be useful in a pinch.

Use this regularly, but been messing about on the Willy Hill ones!

[Euler]

Dear Mr Webb.
On one of your video’s I think you mentioned something along the lines of ‘I don’t want to stop as I’ll loose my edge and may struggle to get back in, as someone will fill my place’. Does it stand to reason that everyone trying to learn will find it impossible until one of the big players steps down? I may be talking nonsense, I’m not sure lol. It just amazes me how so many of us struggle and a select few seem to be head and shoulders above.
Any reply would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks

I don't really need to worry about that now as the amount of automation I do has increased. But that comment is generally from the perspective of the fact that people see the market with me in it. I've been around so long nobody knows what the market would be without me in it. So if I stopped, then the gap I leave may allow people to step in or see what the market is like without me. But as I said, less of an issue nowadays.

I use this sort of analysis on different market states to understand what the participants are doing.

Ultimately, my P&L and yours should rise and falls with liquidity and volume. So on a weak market with little turnover there isn't much I can do, but on a market like the Grand National there is much I can do.

So all our fortunes are tied to the markets, but you must remember than a lot of the advice that is generally dispensed is invalid and a lot of 'full time professional' traders are not actually in the market, just there to sell stuff. So, unfortunately, there is often a steady stream of people who fall for that and provide liquidity also. So there has always seemed to be opportunities even in weak markets.

My approach is just to do something on most markets and get something out of them, no matter how small. Over 10,000's of markets that adds up to a nice sum. I'd recommend you do the same.

[tadasbel]

They dont like Gosdens horses

[Snaff]

Dear Mr Webb.
On one of your video’s I think you mentioned something along the lines of ‘I don’t want to stop as I’ll loose my edge and may struggle to get back in, as someone will fill my place’. Does it stand to reason that everyone trying to learn will find it impossible until one of the big players steps down? I may be talking nonsense, I’m not sure lol. It just amazes me how so many of us struggle and a select few seem to be head and shoulders above.
Any reply would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks

I don't really need to worry about that now as the amount of automation I do has increased. But that comment is generally from the perspective of the fact that people see the market with me in it. I've been around so long nobody knows what the market would be without me in it. So if I stopped, then the gap I leave may allow people to step in or see what the market is like without me. But as I said, less of an issue nowadays.

I use this sort of analysis on different market states to understand what the participants are doing.

Ultimately, my P&L and yours should rise and falls with liquidity and volume. So on a weak market with little turnover there isn't much I can do, but on a market like the Grand National there is much I can do.

So all our fortunes are tied to the markets, but you must remember than a lot of the advice that is generally dispensed is invalid and a lot of 'full time professional' traders are not actually in the market, just there to sell stuff. So, unfortunately, there is often a steady stream of people who fall for that and provide liquidity also. So there has always seemed to be opportunities even in weak markets.

My approach is just to do something on most markets and get something out of them, no matter how small. Over 10,000's of markets that adds up to a nice sum. I'd recommend you do the same.

Thanks for the reply and insight Peter. Makes more sense now.

[Snaff]

Does it stand to reason that everyone trying to learn will find it impossible until one of the big players steps down? It just amazes me how so many of us struggle and a select few seem to be head and shoulders above.

Any market can only yield a given amount of profit that we're all trying to get a share of. That's less than 1% on a market with a tight book so on a 100k market, there's under £1000 up for grabs, and with 2, 3, 400 traders you don't need many taking a big slice of the pie for the rest to be fighting over scraps.

This explained things brilliantly. Cheers Shaun

[ANGELS15]

It's not a Betfair issue this time, but Racing TV.

On the William Hill site they seem to have a live feed looks like Racing TV. Free to watch

Telling me I have to place a bet to watch, thanks though

Sorry for the delay I've only just got back to my pc. I sometimes use the William Hill app and can always watch free on the app. I have an account with them perhaps that's required for the free viewing?

[alexmr2]

Dear Mr Webb.
On one of your video’s I think you mentioned something along the lines of ‘I don’t want to stop as I’ll loose my edge and may struggle to get back in, as someone will fill my place’. Does it stand to reason that everyone trying to learn will find it impossible until one of the big players steps down? I may be talking nonsense, I’m not sure lol. It just amazes me how so many of us struggle and a select few seem to be head and shoulders above.
Any reply would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks

I turned up late around the end of 2018 and severely underestimated how hard it is to make money consistently from pre-off markets which has to be one of, if not the most difficult market to master. I've saw many others give up or post their frustration even after several years of trying.

I don't think it's as simple as suddenly becoming easier when a big player or two step down. Obviously being up against people who have been doing this 5, 10 or 20 years makes it difficult but there's no reason that anyone who is prepared to put the work in won't eventually be able to make money somewhere. Big players may eventually retire, move to automation, algorithms, other markets, exchanges or even sell courses if they eventually get fed up of the slog with 40 or 60%PC.

On the other side, you don't need to look far to see that the markets are full of dumb money and always will be. If you've came across people who participate in betting whether it's family, friends or work colleagues, they probably lack any basic understanding of value. I've lost count of how many people I've explained things to like how you get higher odds on the exchange for the EXACT SAME bet yet they continue to use the bookies. My younger cousin and his friends recently got into randomly betting on B365 despite how many times I've said you can't win and the exchange has better odds. I've brought up matched betting to people and they openly admit they just like leaving bets run (so don't care about value). I watched my family choose their Grand National horses based on what the newspaper says last week. Any time I've had the "trading isn't gambling" conversation, the other persons refuses to accept it.

So there's no easy quick money but if you have the drive to keep trying and adapting then I don't see why it won't eventually work out, and one day you could be in the next generation of big players

[ShaunWhite]

Any time I've had the "trading isn't gambling" conversation, the other persons refuses to accept it.

I don't want to f-up this thread but all trading is gambling, it's a gamble on the direction the market will move rather than a bet on the final outcome. The distinction I know you mean is between 'gambling' and 'professional gambling', where one takes a bet either with, or without serious consideration of value.

If you find anyone who doesn't understand value, offer to flip a coin with them. It's £1 a flip and you'll give them £1.90p each time it's heads. If they refuse ask them how much they'd want. Then ask how much they want for a horse that wins half the time.

[Kai]

Any time I've had the "trading isn't gambling" conversation, the other persons refuses to accept it.

You can never really win those arguments until you have some results behind you to back it up, it's pointless getting into them. Even then it's hard.

[alexmr2]

Any time I've had the "trading isn't gambling" conversation, the other persons refuses to accept it.

I don't want to f-up this thread but all trading is gambling, it's a gamble on the direction the market will move rather than a bet on the final outcome. The distinction I know you mean is between 'gambling' and 'professional gambling', where one takes a bet either with, or without serious consideration of value.

If you find anyone who doesn't understand value, offer to flip a coin with them. It's £1 a flip and you'll give them £1.90p each time it's heads. If they refuse ask them how much they'd want. Then ask how much they want for a horse that wins half the time.

Another good way to explain is to try and get them to think about how B365 makes several million profit each year if they are just "gambling" on the opposite side of bets.

I imagine most people still struggle though, humans are decisive creatures and struggle to think in probabilities like PW and psychology books have said before

Any time I've had the "trading isn't gambling" conversation, the other persons refuses to accept it.

You can never really win those arguments until you have some results behind you to back it up, it's pointless getting into them. Even then it's hard.

True, I learned to not bring trading up with normies a while back and think the simplest thing is to say something along the lines of you manage/update the odds on the Betfair website. Most people are still stuck in their ways that a job must be real. When I was 26 and dating a 55 year old woman she kept saying she would kick me out onto the street to get a proper job because no one makes money from betting/trading

[Derek27]

I once had such an argument with someone who thought bookies can't be beaten. I casually used the word overround, as though it's plain English and was expecting him to know what I was talking about. When I had to explain the mechanics of betting it left his head spinning.

[Snaff]

On the subject of value did any of you fill your boots when the bookies laid pricewise paper prices back in the day. Saturday mornings were like Christmas until stakes went from £100s to 50s, 25s, 10s to taxi is in car park .