BeastofBrine wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 8:59 am
I've been browsing this thread with a sense of dread, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.
Has anyone here started any contingency planning with respect to what they'll do if trading/betting on the exchange becomes untenable? Those for whom retirement is not an option and normal careers are utterly distasteful, obviously.
I've had a brief look at the sharp bookies that can be accessed abroad and noticed that they typically have API's attached to them, suggesting that trading set-ups might be possible; though I do see lots of people complaining that the likes of Pinnacle had their heyday long ago, and that a lot of markets now have ghastly overrounds. Setting up somewhere like Gibraltar could work if the latter is overblown.
The other approach that could work is realising the GC's nightmare and taking the unregulated route: I've seen at least one blockchain based bookie. If a genuine decentralised exchange were organised, it would be very difficult to stop anyone, anywhere using it.
I'd love to hear people's thoughts.
I share your sense of dread. My sole income is from Betfair trading and like yourself I cannot imagine working in a conventional job again.
The impact of moving away from BetFair and the UK to other countries and venues is likely quite different for each of us depending on our style. I think it will depend on how dependent on volume through the platform your approach is. For my trading volume is ciritcal so I do not believe I will be able to make money at all in the future. A test I have done a number of times is to run my algo on Betfair and BetDaq simultaneously on the same market with all the same settings. At the end of the events I am usually small down on BetDaq and nicely up on BetFair. The fact is the volume on other platforms is not the same, in fact for a while I tested my horse racing algos on BetDaq, if they survived that experience I knew they would work well on BetFair!
So for me, I am sure that if the changes that are coming have a large impact on BetFair volume then I will have to find a new direction in life! I used to be a financial markets trader so I am starting to contemplate a return to that way of life. Not a great thought, Hedge Funds on average underperform the major equity indices, the 2020 average return was 10.29% compared to the S&P 500 18.4% (source Barclays Hedge Fund Indices). A return of 10% pa would require a very large bank to produce an adequate income!
Whatever route you take good luck!