Today's Football

[darchas]

Really neutered City there. Three wins in a row for Chelsea Vs City in last few weeks. 4-1 overall in those games.

[darchas]

All the best to Aguero - shame he couldn't be leaving with the trophy but what a career and player for Man City

[Trader Pat]

Tuchel tactically brilliant but Pep's tactics have been very odd tonight

If City lose this the papers aren't going to be kind... Pep overthinking things again

I've been really impressed by Tuchel, but you would have expected City to have responded and manage more than one shot on target.

They seem to have a mental block in Europe. Pep doesn't help with his tinkering though, ...can't wait to hear the logic behind his decisions tonight

[greenmark]

Really neutered City there. Three wins in a row for Chelsea Vs City in last few weeks. 4-1 overall in those games.

City set off looking dangerous. But Chelsea simply were better physically and motivationally. Quite why Pepe decided to hollow out his midfield is a mystery.
There you go, football eh!
Bring on the Euros

[jamesg46]

Eyes to remember. Watch Pep from 70mins on. He knew.

[Morbius]

Eyes to remember. Watch Pep from 70mins on. He knew.

Many many pages ago on this mammoth thread I remarked how City were a lay in this tournament and their odds last night were a joke and as wrong as Uniteds were on Wednesday. Pep knew they were up against it before the final even started. Losing KDB didn't help but I honestly don't think it would have made a difference. In one on one's top coaches are working Guardiola out but he gets away with it in the Prem because opposing teams don't have the quality to hurt City. Ten years without the CL is a hell of a long time with the assets he's had at his disposal it Bayern and City

[jamesg46]

Eyes to remember. Watch Pep from 70mins on. He knew.

Many many pages ago on this mammoth thread I remarked how City were a lay in this tournament and their odds last night were a joke and as wrong as Uniteds were on Wednesday. Pep knew they were up against it before the final even started. Losing KDB didn't help but I honestly don't think it would have made a difference. In one on one's top coaches are working Guardiola out but he gets away with it in the Prem because opposing teams don't have the quality to hurt City. Ten years without the CL is a hell of a long time with the assets he's had at his disposal it Bayern and City

I remember reading it at the time, not the detail behind why you said they were a lay but I remember the post.

I looked at the price before the game, not to take a position but just to be nosey (was it around even?) and it really didn't stand out to me. Thinking back about it now, it seems it was way off given the fine margins it would take to come away with the victory & both managers talked about that in the days leading up.

Tbh anyway, I wouldn't of known value if it slapped me in the face (obviously because I missed it). As we all know though the market is very efficient over the long term which leads me to beg the question... where did the value come from, was it better perception or maybe from people like me who would fear taking on City at any price?.

[Morbius]

Eyes to remember. Watch Pep from 70mins on. He knew.

Many many pages ago on this mammoth thread I remarked how City were a lay in this tournament and their odds last night were a joke and as wrong as Uniteds were on Wednesday. Pep knew they were up against it before the final even started. Losing KDB didn't help but I honestly don't think it would have made a difference. In one on one's top coaches are working Guardiola out but he gets away with it in the Prem because opposing teams don't have the quality to hurt City. Ten years without the CL is a hell of a long time with the assets he's had at his disposal it Bayern and City

I remember reading it at the time, not the detail behind why you said they were a lay but I remember the post.

I looked at the price before the game, not to take a position but just to be nosey (was it around even?) and it really didn't stand out to me. Thinking back about it now, it seems it was way off given the fine margins it would take to come away with the victory & both managers talked about that in the days leading up.

Tbh anyway, I wouldn't of known value if it slapped me in the face (obviously because I missed it). As we all know though the market is very efficient over the long term which leads me to beg the question... where did the value come from, was it better perception or maybe from people like me who would fear taking on City at any price?.

Hey fella... Well that rabbit hole goes a bit deep. The price last night for City to win the CL was circa 1/2 but chelsea were 9/5 after the semi. Value is tough to explain because for me it's an experience thing and I just learned to back my judgement in football a long time ago.

The efficiency that you refer to is an overall one and not an individual one. For example if you took 100,000 even money shots the end result would be a win ratio of c50% in an efficient market. But that is what I call a composite efficiency because over priced teams offset under priced ones. In many instances the market lags.

This is why many traders trade in running because the game dynamics are not in sync with pre game prices when the market however sophisticated only has pre event data to go on. So why were city too short last night??? There are many reasons for that of which some are my own opinions and are not quantifiable. I believe league titles and points totals affect odds but these lag.

For example it pretty clear to me that Chelsea were operating at City's level for the past few weeks. This game was a coin flip at best but Chelsea have beaten them twice recently. Tuchel like Emery is very tactically adept and another factor was in how I think city handed Chelsea the psychological edge in their two previous meetings.

Werner may not be scoring goals but what he brings to the team is immense and is why Tuchel picks him. His pace is awesome for a forward and akin to Mbappe and changes the game dynamic. He gets offside too much but that part will improve... Digressing too much here.

The market always overreacts to league titles but that is a year long average. Just like it overreacted to Uniteds 2nd place finish in the Prem when really it's a false position. At the end of the day don't try to find value the way I do. It's hard to quantify... Just trade to your strengths

[jamesg46]

Many many pages ago on this mammoth thread I remarked how City were a lay in this tournament and their odds last night were a joke and as wrong as Uniteds were on Wednesday. Pep knew they were up against it before the final even started. Losing KDB didn't help but I honestly don't think it would have made a difference. In one on one's top coaches are working Guardiola out but he gets away with it in the Prem because opposing teams don't have the quality to hurt City. Ten years without the CL is a hell of a long time with the assets he's had at his disposal it Bayern and City

I remember reading it at the time, not the detail behind why you said they were a lay but I remember the post.

I looked at the price before the game, not to take a position but just to be nosey (was it around even?) and it really didn't stand out to me. Thinking back about it now, it seems it was way off given the fine margins it would take to come away with the victory & both managers talked about that in the days leading up.

Tbh anyway, I wouldn't of known value if it slapped me in the face (obviously because I missed it). As we all know though the market is very efficient over the long term which leads me to beg the question... where did the value come from, was it better perception or maybe from people like me who would fear taking on City at any price?.

Hey fella... Well that rabbit hole goes a bit deep. The price last night for City to win the CL was circa 1/2 but chelsea were 9/5 after the semi. Value is tough to explain because for me it's an experience thing and I just learned to back my judgement in football a long time ago.

The efficiency that you refer to is an overall one and not an individual one. For example if you took 100,000 even money shots the end result would be a win ratio of c50% in an efficient market. But that is what I call a composite efficiency because over priced teams offset under priced ones. In many instances the market lags.

This is why many traders trade in running because the game dynamics are not in sync with pre game prices when the market however sophisticated only has pre event data to go on. So why were city too short last night??? There are many reasons for that of which some are my own opinions and are not quantifiable. I believe league titles and points totals affect odds but these lag.

For example it pretty clear to me that Chelsea were operating at City's level for the past few weeks. This game was a coin flip at best but Chelsea have beaten them twice recently. Tuchel like Emery is very tactically adept and another factor was in how I think city handed Chelsea the psychological edge in their two previous meetings.

Werner may not be scoring goals but what he brings to the team is immense and is why Tuchel picks him. His pace is awesome for a forward and akin to Mbappe and changes the game dynamic. He gets offside too much but that part will improve... Digressing too much here.

The market always overreacts to league titles but that is a year long average. Just like it overreacted to Uniteds 2nd place finish in the Prem when really it's a false position. At the end of the day don't try to find value the way I do. It's hard to quantify... Just trade to your strengths

"The efficiency you refer to is an overall one, not an individual one".

I love that comment because on the surface it comes across as very plain but, if we were to pause on this comment & delve into it I think it could lead to some very insteresting conversations.

I've always had a similar mindset in regards to there being value in judgement, the problem I've always had with that personally is not being able to quantify it as a margin & also getting lost in the subjectivity, especially over longer periods of time.

[Trader Pat]

Many many pages ago on this mammoth thread I remarked how City were a lay in this tournament and their odds last night were a joke and as wrong as Uniteds were on Wednesday. Pep knew they were up against it before the final even started. Losing KDB didn't help but I honestly don't think it would have made a difference. In one on one's top coaches are working Guardiola out but he gets away with it in the Prem because opposing teams don't have the quality to hurt City. Ten years without the CL is a hell of a long time with the assets he's had at his disposal it Bayern and City

Tuchel got it tactically spot on but the reason City lost is down to Guardiola.

If he would have played his strongest first eleven City would have had more than one shot on goal and chances are they would have won that game. The effect of not starting Rodri or Fernandinho was huge, De Bruyne was very quiet in that game before going off injured and Sterling was non existent. You can be sure some City players will be questioning Pep's decisions to themselves if not openly so next season will be interesting.

Don't think the UK media and pundits will criticise Pep too much because he wins domestic titles and its a popularity contest with most of them but if Chelsea would have lost that game Tuchel would have been slaughtered for leaving Abraham out of the squad completely, especially with Werner missing some good chances.

[greenmark]

Many many pages ago on this mammoth thread I remarked how City were a lay in this tournament and their odds last night were a joke and as wrong as Uniteds were on Wednesday. Pep knew they were up against it before the final even started. Losing KDB didn't help but I honestly don't think it would have made a difference. In one on one's top coaches are working Guardiola out but he gets away with it in the Prem because opposing teams don't have the quality to hurt City. Ten years without the CL is a hell of a long time with the assets he's had at his disposal it Bayern and City

Tuchel got it tactically spot on but the reason City lost is down to Guardiola.

If he would have played his strongest first eleven City would have had more than one shot on goal and chances are they would have won that game. The effect of not starting Rodri or Fernandinho was huge, De Bruyne was very quiet in that game before going off injured and Sterling was non existent. You can be sure some City players will be questioning Pep's decisions to themselves if not openly so next season will be interesting.

Don't think the UK media and pundits will criticise Pep too much because he wins domestic titles and its a popularity contest with most of them but if Chelsea would have lost that game Tuchel would have been slaughtered for leaving Abraham out of the squad completely, especially with Werner missing some good chances.

I agree with all that. And I think the market did reflect the City selection. I'd only add that with Kante in midfield, having two non-physical, creative midfielders (Foden and Silva) did have a detrimental impact. Foden at times looked like a schoolboy in a seniors game.
And putting Gundogan straight back in after injury AND weirdly playing Sterling who has been out of favour was just weird.
I honestly think Pep is a little bit crazy. Incredibly driven to the point of obsession, but sometimes seems to fix stuff that isn't broken.

[Morbius]

I remember reading it at the time, not the detail behind why you said they were a lay but I remember the post.

I looked at the price before the game, not to take a position but just to be nosey (was it around even?) and it really didn't stand out to me. Thinking back about it now, it seems it was way off given the fine margins it would take to come away with the victory & both managers talked about that in the days leading up.

Tbh anyway, I wouldn't of known value if it slapped me in the face (obviously because I missed it). As we all know though the market is very efficient over the long term which leads me to beg the question... where did the value come from, was it better perception or maybe from people like me who would fear taking on City at any price?.

Hey fella... Well that rabbit hole goes a bit deep. The price last night for City to win the CL was circa 1/2 but chelsea were 9/5 after the semi. Value is tough to explain because for me it's an experience thing and I just learned to back my judgement in football a long time ago.

The efficiency that you refer to is an overall one and not an individual one. For example if you took 100,000 even money shots the end result would be a win ratio of c50% in an efficient market. But that is what I call a composite efficiency because over priced teams offset under priced ones. In many instances the market lags.

This is why many traders trade in running because the game dynamics are not in sync with pre game prices when the market however sophisticated only has pre event data to go on. So why were city too short last night??? There are many reasons for that of which some are my own opinions and are not quantifiable. I believe league titles and points totals affect odds but these lag.

For example it pretty clear to me that Chelsea were operating at City's level for the past few weeks. This game was a coin flip at best but Chelsea have beaten them twice recently. Tuchel like Emery is very tactically adept and another factor was in how I think city handed Chelsea the psychological edge in their two previous meetings.

Werner may not be scoring goals but what he brings to the team is immense and is why Tuchel picks him. His pace is awesome for a forward and akin to Mbappe and changes the game dynamic. He gets offside too much but that part will improve... Digressing too much here.

The market always overreacts to league titles but that is a year long average. Just like it overreacted to Uniteds 2nd place finish in the Prem when really it's a false position. At the end of the day don't try to find value the way I do. It's hard to quantify... Just trade to your strengths

"The efficiency you refer to is an overall one, not an individual one".

I love that comment because on the surface it comes across as very plain but, if we were to pause on this comment & delve into it I think it could lead to some very insteresting conversations.

I've always had a similar mindset in regards to there being value in judgement, the problem I've always had with that personally is not being able to quantify it as a margin & also getting lost in the subjectivity, especially over longer periods of time.

The subjectivity that you mention is a big problem for many traders. It's like the age old question of comparing quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis. Quants vs Actuaries for example. Yes the subject matter is very deep but for me it's about highlighting what you believe to be RELEVANT facts....sorry for the caps but that point needed to be highlighted.

Market efficiency is ever present and for example the football markets on Pinnacle were proven to show the actual probability of the result to 99.7%. This if misinterpreted appears to indicate very little wiggle room to make money. This couldn't be further from the truth.

A brief analogy if I may.... Its a simple one but it gets the job done. If I ask you a sum of 4x4 then the most efficient and accurate answer is 16. But the markets while arriving at 16 don't arrive at 16 all the time. So take the following sequence.... 13...22....10...19...8 and 24. So in answer to the sum of what is 4x4, the market didn't answer it with 16,16,16,16,16,16 over 6 events but 13,22,10,19,8,24. Add them together you get 96 and divide that by the number of events you get 16 but none of them were actually 16. This is the real true "efficiency" of financial markets and what I meant by composite efficiency. So respect the long term efficiency which means don't expect to make money trading/betting blindly but show the composite efficiency far less respect

[Trader Pat]

Copa America is set to be moved to Brazil.. Brazil already favourites

Only 4.2k matched and its starting in a few weeks

[greenmark]

I swear I can hear crickets on the Croatia v Armenia game.

[Trader Pat]

Hell of a few weeks for Liverpool fans. Make the Top 4 after it looked very unlikely a couple of months ago, Utd get beaten in a European final, City get beaten in a European final and now Everton lose their manager! Not that I or any LFC fan would take pleasure in any of that!