Trading What I see !?

[wearthefoxhat]

Value.

I sometimes create ratings on a race by using a base rating and then add/minus depending on other variables in the race. Each runner is rated on its merits, a total rating achieved and then odds calculated taking into account the whole field. When the new odds are compared with the live market, value (IMO) can be measured.

If I were straight betting/laying this would give me a starting point for how I perceive value, however, the "value" odds could also be used to indicate a B2L or L2B opportunity....unless the market has other ideas....

I often find an overbet selection serves well for a L2B option, if the race variables (ratings based) support it.

Or I can always peel an orange...

[marko236]

In order to be profitable, one must be taking value. If you are trading volatility it doesn't matter, your strike rate still needs to be better than the implied probabilities in the markets. To say you do not need to do "value taking" in order to be profitable is an oxymoron - profitability is an outcome of taking bets at value.

Sure - volatility traders may not be assessing value with the same methodology a low-frequency trader might. But the end of the day, when you load your PNL page, you are only going to get +ve pnl if your strike rate is better than the implied strike rate from pricing. And thus you are taking at value.

Successful order flow trading/volatility trading is still value betting by proxy. Any profitably betting operation is. Let's stop this bs "you don't need to take value if you are "trading""

So once again - it is NOT possible to be profitable UNLESS you take/place value bets.

If a horse is getting heavily back in it may indicate that it's a value back bet, but there's almost always an opportunity to lay and have a winning trade. If your betting long term against value you will lose money, Trading is different to betting.

[wearthefoxhat]

In order to be profitable, one must be taking value. If you are trading volatility it doesn't matter, your strike rate still needs to be better than the implied probabilities in the markets. To say you do not need to do "value taking" in order to be profitable is an oxymoron - profitability is an outcome of taking bets at value.

Sure - volatility traders may not be assessing value with the same methodology a low-frequency trader might. But the end of the day, when you load your PNL page, you are only going to get +ve pnl if your strike rate is better than the implied strike rate from pricing. And thus you are taking at value.

Successful order flow trading/volatility trading is still value betting by proxy. Any profitably betting operation is. Let's stop this bs "you don't need to take value if you are "trading""

So once again - it is NOT possible to be profitable UNLESS you take/place value bets.

If a horse is getting heavily back in it may indicate that it's a value back bet, but there's almost always an opportunity to lay and have a winning trade. If your betting long term against value you will lose money, Trading is different to betting.

+1

[Trader724]

There is betting value and trading value. If you only bet on the winner of the event, the only way to be long time profitable is to bet at betting value.
When you're trading you will be profitable if you predict the direction of the price for a reward greater than the risk whether it is the size of profits or their frequency. Things are pretty simple.
You can get trading value whether the price is betting value or not but it seems like not everyone knows that.

[dm1900]

Trading is different to betting.

I give up, this is nonsense (with respect to placing orders at value)

[goat68]

I prefer to cut my orange peel off with a sharp knife, cuts the pithe off and I don't get my fingers all orange stained and messy. IT'S THE ONLY WAY, DON'T TELL ME OTHERWISE!

[marko236]

I prefer to cut my orange peel off with a sharp knife, cuts the pithe off and I don't get my fingers all orange stained and messy. IT'S THE ONLY WAY, DON'T TELL ME OTHERWISE!

I remember when i was a kid i would peel an Orange with my teeth

[wearthefoxhat]

I prefer to cut my orange peel off with a sharp knife, cuts the pithe off and I don't get my fingers all orange stained and messy. IT'S THE ONLY WAY, DON'T TELL ME OTHERWISE!

I remember when i was a kid i would peel an Orange with my teeth

Peeling a satsuma is always satisfying, comes off in one go, and then consume whole. How do like them apples?

[goat68]

The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable

[wearthefoxhat]

The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable

You also need to know thyself.

Probably telling you how to suck lemons, but it's often overlooked.

This would cover not only how to handle/embrace a loss/losing run, but also how to enjoy the process/journey along the way and celebrate the successes.

The most important lesson I learned was; "Don't sweat the small stuff." Essentially, it meant for me, was to look at the bigger picture and not chop and change too many things along the way. Also, I never stop learning new stuff to assist the process and keep myself up todate.

Also, not to compare myself and my results against others apparent success, be my own person.

[decomez6]

The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable

Family bread winners ,
Family emergency support centre,
Family planner,...list go on
Work , work , ... some times shift .
Marital responsibilities.. extended / in-laws .
Then comes trading ... which requires full attention .you need a good night sleep , exercise and a balanced diet ,otherwise a foggy / jumpy mind ,will hinder your decision making process.
I think we all want to shorten the learning curve, but I personally made a mistake ,jumping the gun and
Went full mode automation before I could fully manually trade .
I think automation is better informed when one has gone through the heavy acrobatics of the trading ladder .
It must be in your muscle memory, ready to execute in your sleep , then you have a good chance to break even and potentially tilt the balance.
If that doesn’t help , then a degree in data science /statistics will be your only way out .
Well rounded experienced number crunchers do well in many fields and I believe this is one such a field .
I can fully relate to the feeling of a mug, handing their hard earned living to the mugger side.but I must say ,you are in a much better position than a majority of us , you are the goat! survive on very little and are more creative than expected .

[ShaunWhite]

The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable

Can't agree with that. Part time will obviously make it take longer but "market dynamics" isn't especially hard to understand, it's just the aincient game of supply and demand.. Not a 2 min job to understand but it doesn't need full time effort to do it.

And if not part time first then how would anyone go full time? People don't give up their job to have a go, they transition when their part time income exceeds their full-time one. What you describe as not possible is the usual route for most people.

[ShaunWhite]

People don't just fail because trading is too complicated, they often fail because they've made it more complicated than it is. Trying to emulate Peter or Liam ain't a great place to start.

[Trader Pat]

Just to echo Shaun's point there are plenty of part time traders earning a decent second income from trading.

I haven't posted to the thread in a while but OP seems to be still guilty of overthinking and overanalysing everything. I said at the beginning if you have only an hour to spend a day on trading then spend it manually trading on the ladder rather then wading through data. The problem with back-testing is if you don't have a good understanding of the markets then how do you know what to look for? Some of my better automation came about by accident, usually manually trading one day and noticing something that may or may not be worth spending time on but that's where you can test it and see if its worthwhile.

The problem with looking for patterns in large amounts of data is you'll always find them, but that's doesn't mean they'll make you any money, that's where the understanding comes in.

[marko236]

The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable

I remember watching an Arnold schwarzenegger video on youtube two quotes from it are.

1. If you spent an hour a day learning to play a musical instrumenet, how good would you be after a year.
2. If you spent an hour a day learning a new language, how good would you be after a year.