Euro 2020

[rik]

Someone followed the win market during penalty shoot out? Its really a noticeable statistical advantage shooting first in a penalty shoot out? Price went from about evens to almost 60-40 and after England missed the one someone was massively backing Italy pushing price down to 1.4 before the last penalty. If you compare to the other penalty shoot outs price went 1,7 range when first team to shoot scored.
Cant decide if it was smart money moving the price like that

bad luck Rik - hope you managed to make money overall

no penalties went badly went from 8 to -11k on the tournament market
not a football expert, was dabbling around market making until thought surely price must be wrong on the penalties.
I try to make a quick decision if I feel a price is clearly wrong as it might be gone quickly but probalby in this case I judged poorly

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couple hundred on other account ha

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[Euler]

Here is the rough data I cobbled together on the pen shootout this morning: -

2021-07-12 at 12.08.40.png

[rik]

I said at the outset that England would not win a major tournament with Southgate in charge and I was very close to being wrong. But I can't help feeling this near miss and the semi in Russia glosses over his inadequacies and he gets by because of a very talented squad.

England have had a lot of decent results in this tournament but Spain beat Germany 6-0 not long ago and Croatia are not at the same level as they were in 2018 plus we were at home. Italy had 19 goal attempts to our 6 which shows they deserved it. For me it was like watching a repeat of the Croatia semi final.

Southgate looked like a deer caught in the headlights. It was obvious five to ten minutes in that second half that the momentum had shifted. England have a track record of going defensive against a top class side after taking a lead. This is not hindsight. Read my timeline posts on this thread.

We needed a player who could keep possession and win us set pieces up the park. Grealish is the most fouled player in the Prem two years running. It was pointless bringing Sako on at that late stage and penalty shootouts are not lotteries and I wish people would stop calling them that. We were underdogs in that shootout for the reasons I stated before it started.

I didn't see any progression in this tournament in terms of Southgate changing a game that's going against him while his team is leading. Being defensive and unsure in key moments reflects his lack of big game experience and is probably in his DNA.

Well said Morbius.

I think our problem with penalties is that our game is not as delicate and finessed as the best from the rest of the world. That's been so for decades. We have had the occasional player who could work the ball like overseas players (David Beckham's right foot! ) but generally our game is about darting runs. PL teams use 'ball players' but when they want a new one they go abroad and buy one so any home grown player hoping to secure that place in a team doesn't stand a chance. PL teams use overseas players for ball play and British players for cut and thrust.

Youd have to say England have a bunch of "delicate and finessed" players though, but Sancho for example wasnt even played? Lot of quality players, if you look at market value rating for example, England were top

[rik]

Here is the rough data I cobbled together on the pen shootout this morning: -


2021-07-12 at 12.08.40.png

Weighted Average matched right? Interesting, so whats your opinion, Italy were too low?

[firlandsfarm]

A good manager would evaluate all eventualities and make sure they are covered. That England should take the lead, Italy then equalise and the game go on to penalties was one of the highly probable outcomes and should have been covered.

Give the guy a break. If he was a rocket scientist he would have got into orbit, not a 50-mile dip.

[Euler]

Here is the rough data I cobbled together on the pen shootout this morning: -

2021-07-12 at 12.08.40.png

Weighted Average matched right? Interesting, so whats your opinion, Italy were too low?

Still digging around in the data. But this is the rough price the market was at as the penalty taker walked up.

[Derek27]

Rik, I really admire your openness with your PLs. Most people just post their greens.

[Tuco]

no penalties went badly went from 8 to -11k on the tournament market
not a football expert, was dabbling around market making until thought surely price must be wrong on the penalties.
I try to make a quick decision if I feel a price is clearly wrong as it might be gone quickly but probalby in this case I judged poorly

...sorry to hear that

...yeah in-play you have to make quick decisions - no time to deliberate - next time that will work out well for you.

I didn't trade the outright winner market last night and had levelled up making a small 4 fig sum over the whole tournament.

I made a 'mistake-in-haste' in the group stages though:

when Sweden scored a late winner against Poland, I backed Spain-Sweden in the straight forecast market rather than Sweden-Spain - very luckily it only cost me £277 but annoying none-the-less.

(I also had the dual forecast market open in a window next to the straight forecast so that might have distracted me).

[firlandsfarm]

Youd have to say England have a bunch of "delicate and finessed" players though, but Sancho for example wasnt even played? Lot of quality players, if you look at market value rating for example, England were top

Hi rik, my "delicate and finessed" comment was within the context of missing penalties. There is a reason why we perform below average for a top team in penalty shoot-outs. According to the BBC "England have won just 22% (two of nine) of their major tournament shootouts (World Cup/Euros), the lowest ratio of any European nation to have been involved in three or more.".
I don't see that as statistical variance, there has to be a reason ... I think part of the reason may be that we cannot place the ball as accurately as many overseas players when it comes to directing a penalty. Yes some will stand up to assessment but it takes at least 5 out of 11 to win a penalty shoot-out. The three that missed were very poor penalties in where the ball was played.

Not sure what you mean by "market value" are you referring to Transfer Market values?

[Dallas]

After some reflection and perhaps a bit of hindsight bias, though I think it was obvious for all to see, England really blew their best ever chance of a trophy.

Playing at home, 1-0 up so early and dominating the first half, a second would have caused Italy real problems. They didn't get it, Italy changed shape at HT and England lost the plot. Against a good team they defended too deep and just invited pressure. It was almost inevitable that Italy would score, even just by chance.

Failure to change formation after Italy changed, is a little bemusing. Extra time and Italy were flagging, but no substitutions were made and England didn't take advantage.

The penalty shootout was a strange one, I can't believe Southgate agreed to that line up. Not sure what he was thinking there?

With the World Cup just around the corner I think Southgate will stay with this team and we won't get so lucky in Qatar. Vunrabilities will be exposed and it's back to square one for the next Euros.

That's pretty much the way I saw it, over the 120mins Italy were marginally the better team so on balanced deserved the win, but to go out on penalties in the way we did was as harsh as I think was possible and I do feel for those players who missed especially Saka

The way we kept pushing in the first going into the HT break I'd through we'd finally broken that bad habit that's been the cause of so many of our exits over past tournaments but then in that 2nd half as Peter said we were just inviting them to score, there was no way we were holding out 45mins against a team like Italy.

[MoRobo44]

Glad that is over. What a disaster in london and around the stadium and the reaction online.

My sister was at the game and got 1st hand footage of the carnage. just happy she got home ok. crazy.

[jimibt]

Glad that is over. What a disaster in london and around the stadium and the reaction online.

My sister was at the game and got 1st hand footage of the carnage. just happy she got home ok. crazy.

yes, they are not a great advert for the game. it's no wonder that you see these meme maps where every country in europe is sporting the italian flag with england alone represented by the st george's flag. it's this small minority of bigots that color the view of the england brand internationally.

[Trader Pat]

Something Southgate said in a post match interview really baffled me. He said the penalty takers were pre decided in training How can you decide on the takers for such a massive occasion before the game?! I understand having a provisional list of takers but surely for most of the team you'd have to look into their eyes after extra time and then decide if they'd take one or not?

A lot had been made all month about how Southgate and his back room team leave nothing to chance and cover every angle, but they don't seem very good at adapting. Southgate reminds me of a trader who's very good at initially reading what direction the market will go in, but when market conditions start to change is too slow to adapt, resulting in a red.

As a neutral and a football fan its a real shame to see successive generations of English talent being squandered. Since the inception of the Premier League the national teams of all the other 'Big 5 leagues' have won multiple major titles. Germany & Italy have both won 1 World Cup and 1 Euros, Spain have won 1 WC and 2 Euros and France have won 2 WC's and 1 Euros. I know you could argue that the Premier League is dominated by foreign talent but also the FA needs to shoulder some of the blame. They seem to be just a bunch of suits with no real idea about the game, there's not a single ex footballer on the board of directors. Imo the FA needs an overhaul and maybe should follow the example of the other national associations mentioned above and have some ex players in positions of power.

[PapaShango]

Southgate reminds me of a trader who's very good at initially reading what direction the market will go in, but when market conditions start to change is too slow to adapt, resulting in a red.

Southgate reminds me of a trader who somehow flukes his way to a huge green number, catching every break going, only to watch it turn into a massive red when he tries to cash out.

[greenmark]

It was a very even game for me. Sure we appeared to sit back, but anyone thats played sport knows a worthy opponent will redouble their efforts when losing.
Rash's pen was a ball's width from being perfect. And who could possibly criticise a 19yr old having the guts to step up to the plate.
It was SO narrow a victory. Italy are unbeaten in 34 - since Sep 2018. That says it all.