Trading What I see !?

[ShaunWhite]

I hope it turns around for you, false dawns are a demoralising ball ache.

You need to see everything as a positive, either you make a few quid or you learn why you didn't and tighten up your process. Nobody making money has done it without earning their stripes on the way.

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[goat68]

I've stopped the Aus horse bot, it's not performing, mainly because 6% commission on average kills the profit, especially when things start chopping around... I think I need to work on a hedging bot for Aus rather than a betting bot.

[ShaunWhite]

I've stopped the Aus horse bot, it's not performing, mainly because 6% commission on average kills the profit, especially when things start chopping around... I think I need to work on a hedging bot for Aus rather than a betting bot.

Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

[goat68]

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

one hedges the other doesn't... I make this up as I go along

[goat68]

I've stopped the Aus horse bot, it's not performing, mainly because 6% commission on average kills the profit, especially when things start chopping around... I think I need to work on a hedging bot for Aus rather than a betting bot.

Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

My theory is to slightly disagree with you here. As I said I think yesterday, not all markets are efficient ALL the time. On average they will be across ALL markets. But my belief is you can find inefficiency in certain selections in certain markets. I know you say that by always hedging things will average out, but that is only the case if you bet on EVERY market. So say you only bet on 20% of markets, depending on how you selected them, hedging may make it overall -EV.
My dog bot is an example which I tried hedging on, and it shows a significant loss with that, my theory being the condition it bets on the BSP is not neutral EV on average.

"Fire away!"

[wearthefoxhat]

I've stopped the Aus horse bot, it's not performing, mainly because 6% commission on average kills the profit, especially when things start chopping around... I think I need to work on a hedging bot for Aus rather than a betting bot.

Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

My theory is to slightly disagree with you here. As I said I think yesterday, not all markets are efficient ALL the time. On average they will be across ALL markets. But my belief is you can find inefficiency in certain selections in certain markets. I know you say that by always hedging things will average out, but that is only the case if you bet on EVERY market. So say you only bet on 20% of markets, depending on how you selected them, hedging may make it overall -EV.
My dog bot is an example which I tried hedging on, and it shows a significant loss with that, my theory being the condition it bets on the BSP is not neutral EV on average.

"Fire away!"

Sorry if dumb question.

What constitutes value?


Naas 2.00 16th September 2021

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A value bot might focus on the favourite, which one should be favourite? What might be value?

Another value bot might focus on the outsider(s), which ones are the outsider(s)? Is 50/1+ value?

Do you bother with this info or focus on reams of data supplied by betfair and look for patterns/trends? What tells me its value?

There is no right/wrong answer....or is there?

[goat68]

Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

My theory is to slightly disagree with you here. As I said I think yesterday, not all markets are efficient ALL the time. On average they will be across ALL markets. But my belief is you can find inefficiency in certain selections in certain markets. I know you say that by always hedging things will average out, but that is only the case if you bet on EVERY market. So say you only bet on 20% of markets, depending on how you selected them, hedging may make it overall -EV.
My dog bot is an example which I tried hedging on, and it shows a significant loss with that, my theory being the condition it bets on the BSP is not neutral EV on average.

"Fire away!"

Sorry if dumb question.

What constitutes value?


Naas 2.00 16th September 2021


Naas 2.00.png



Naas2.00LS.png




Naas2.00Res.png


A value bot might focus on the favourite, which one should be favourite? What might be value?

Another value bot might focus on the outsider(s), which ones are the outsider(s)? Is 50/1+ value?

Do you bother with this info or focus on reams of data supplied by betfair and look for patterns/trends? What tells me its value?

There is no right/wrong answer....or is there?

for me value is simply eg.a back bet at 6.0 winning 25% of the time

[goat68]

remember i'm not exactly an expert at this

[Kai]

remember i'm not exactly an expert at this

That's fine, most pro traders aren't either.

Allow enough time for everything to sink in properly! It's elementary, my dear Goaty

KUTGW

[andy28]

[ShaunWhite]

remember i'm not exactly an expert at this

That's fine, most pro traders aren't either.

There's'pro traders who aren't experts, and non-pros who are, and great pros who can't teach and great teachers who can't trade. Ahhhh do you remember the good old days when you thought for yourself instead of looking for someone to subcontract your thinking to?

[Kai]

remember i'm not exactly an expert at this

That's fine, most pro traders aren't either.

There's'pro traders who aren't experts, and non-pros who are, and great pros who can't teach and great teachers who can't trade. Ahhhh do you remember the good old days when you thought for yourself instead of looking for someone to subcontract your thinking to?

If everyone is thinking alike, then is anyone really thinking?!

But don't think it applies to the core trading mechanics, have to pick those up from somewhere as there's not much point in reinventing the wheel!

It's a strange one isn't it, on paper it doesn't take much to push someone's results into profit, but in reality the skill gap between a newbie and a pro(fitable) trader feels like a chasm.

[Kai]

People say it doesn't take much to get from totally random 50/50 trading into profit, in theory that is true but is it really like that in reality? Because you don't really start off trading purely randomly, do you? You start off far behind in the minus because you're falling for every single market trick and you get bullied and pushed around all over the place as that's by design Only when you overcome those market tricks and mental traps can you come close to random results, or through botting, but at that point you need to learn a few tricks of your own to get into profit and to gain an edge over that same market.

So that's a much bigger gap to close than it seems at first.

[wearthefoxhat]

remember i'm not exactly an expert at this

There's a lot of content you've posted has its own area of expertise, the journey is trying to find something that fits.

[wearthefoxhat]

for me value is simply eg.a back bet at 6.0 winning 25% of the time

Ok fair enough.

One approach I'm looking at, is laying the favourite. Wait a minute Fox, that's been done to death/solved, you're wasting your time buddy. The initial stats may prove "they're" right.

Lay all fav's since 2012 @ 2% comms @£100

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But...there are certain conditions when a favourite is overbet and other attributes where a favourite is at a disadvantage. So that may constitute value when laying them. Of course some results will bite you in the arse, but over time, will pan out.