I have two updated/new bots now running:
- uk dogs
- aus horses
Both show a backtest P-value of 0.5% on 4 months backtest
Will see how they go forward................
(I'm suspecting i'm just a good "fitter"!)
Trading What I see !?
Sort of...
So there's essentially 2 "dependent" signals in the above, let's say A & B.
If I plot cumulative PnL for A alone it ends at -£1500 after 8000+ selections
If I plot cumulative PnL for B alone it ends at breakeven after 8000+ selections
If I plot cumulative PnL for A+B you get above +£600
Ive never heard that you need to be running BA.goat68 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pmYeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
- ShaunWhite
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They explain how to do it in the API FAQ so it's not a big deal, so long as it's used reasonably rather than habitually.Anbell wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:10 amIve never heard that you need to be running BA.goat68 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pmYeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
So exactly, i would be doing it on every single bet, so I'd call that habitually!ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:11 amThey explain how to do it in the API FAQ so it's not a big deal, so long as it's used reasonably rather than habitually.Anbell wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:10 amIve never heard that you need to be running BA.goat68 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pmYeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
I dont think that'd be a problem, tho I dont know for sure. I do it 500 times an hour without a problem.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:01 amSo exactly, i would be doing it on every single bet, so I'd call that habitually!ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:11 amThey explain how to do it in the API FAQ so it's not a big deal, so long as it's used reasonably rather than habitually.
Do you use BA though?Anbell wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:24 amI dont think that'd be a problem, tho I dont know for sure. I do it 500 times an hour without a problem.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:01 amSo exactly, i would be doing it on every single bet, so I'd call that habitually!ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:11 am
They explain how to do it in the API FAQ so it's not a big deal, so long as it's used reasonably rather than habitually.
Im just hypothesising they would be more lenient to the BA subscription... since they know it's a standard feature of BA and BA is no doubt a significant volume them..
I'm not a normal user, but I suspect that you're seeing ghosts where there arent any. (I dont know though)
I follow Peter's twitter feed, just noticed this link today: https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/valu ... r-trading/
Of course I am doing "value betting", and this is a great article summarising my joys and woes, this paragraph is great and VERY true:
"
When you are doing well with a result dependent strategy, it’s easy to think you are a god and when you are doing badly it’s easy to think you are an idiot. This is one key reason that people have trouble replicating or even creating successful strategies.
"
Just wondering if Peter's reason for re-posting this was my recent Ups and Downs...!?!
Of course I am doing "value betting", and this is a great article summarising my joys and woes, this paragraph is great and VERY true:
"
When you are doing well with a result dependent strategy, it’s easy to think you are a god and when you are doing badly it’s easy to think you are an idiot. This is one key reason that people have trouble replicating or even creating successful strategies.
"
Just wondering if Peter's reason for re-posting this was my recent Ups and Downs...!?!
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I’ve been thinking about some of the analysis comments from earlier in this tread for about 10 days now to the point where I feel inclined to ask more because I feel it may be really useful for my personal analysis.
I’m intrigued by the taking of the cumulative PnL and comparing it to an indicator such as the price-vwap. I believe it was said this checks the effectiveness of whatever you use as the x-axis i.e. price-vwap? I caught something about putting results into buckets and then doing this cumulative thing, I have no idea?
I’m mainly referring to Shaun’s explanation here at: Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:50 am
I’m theorising capturing a bunch of variables with each trade and creating one of these graphs for each to check their effectiveness simultaneously, not sure if this is how it works. Shaun or others, could anybody help me out please?
For (a bad) example, say I want to check whether my bot performs better at the point the markets has a high overround or a tight one, could I capture the book % at the point each of my trades close along with that trade’s PnL and group this data into discrete chunks i.e. book% = 100%-101%, 101.1%-102%, 102.1%-103% … 110%+
Then, map out the cumulative frequency or something and that will show where book% plays the most significant part in my system? If the results are similar with both halves of my sample, then it may be significant? Is that the rough gist of what’s going on? Apologies if I have misunderstood.
I’m intrigued by the taking of the cumulative PnL and comparing it to an indicator such as the price-vwap. I believe it was said this checks the effectiveness of whatever you use as the x-axis i.e. price-vwap? I caught something about putting results into buckets and then doing this cumulative thing, I have no idea?
I’m mainly referring to Shaun’s explanation here at: Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:50 am
I’m theorising capturing a bunch of variables with each trade and creating one of these graphs for each to check their effectiveness simultaneously, not sure if this is how it works. Shaun or others, could anybody help me out please?
For (a bad) example, say I want to check whether my bot performs better at the point the markets has a high overround or a tight one, could I capture the book % at the point each of my trades close along with that trade’s PnL and group this data into discrete chunks i.e. book% = 100%-101%, 101.1%-102%, 102.1%-103% … 110%+
Then, map out the cumulative frequency or something and that will show where book% plays the most significant part in my system? If the results are similar with both halves of my sample, then it may be significant? Is that the rough gist of what’s going on? Apologies if I have misunderstood.