Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

I have two updated/new bots now running:
- uk dogs
- aus horses
Both show a backtest P-value of 0.5% on 4 months backtest
Will see how they go forward................
(I'm suspecting i'm just a good "fitter"!)
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Backtests:
Screenshot 2021-09-24 at 16.47.04.png
Screenshot 2021-09-24 at 16.48.22.png
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arch4672
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:40 pm

I assume you plotted the signals you're using for these bots against cumulative pnl and they looked good?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

arch4672 wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:41 pm
I assume you plotted the signals you're using for these bots against cumulative pnl and they looked good?
Sort of...
So there's essentially 2 "dependent" signals in the above, let's say A & B.

If I plot cumulative PnL for A alone it ends at -£1500 after 8000+ selections
If I plot cumulative PnL for B alone it ends at breakeven after 8000+ selections
If I plot cumulative PnL for A+B you get above +£600
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

A made up example of A and B:
A) Bet when every selection 10% below next fav
B) Bet on Thursdays

A+B) bet on every selection 10% below next fav on Thursdays !
Anbell
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pm
Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
Ive never heard that you need to be running BA.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Anbell wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:10 am
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pm
Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
Ive never heard that you need to be running BA.
They explain how to do it in the API FAQ so it's not a big deal, so long as it's used reasonably rather than habitually.
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Trader724
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:lol:
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:11 am
Anbell wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:10 am
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:17 pm
Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?
Ive never heard that you need to be running BA.
They explain how to do it in the API FAQ so it's not a big deal, so long as it's used reasonably rather than habitually.
So exactly, i would be doing it on every single bet, so I'd call that habitually!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader724 wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:08 am
:lol:
Did i miss a joke?
Anbell
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

goat68 wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:01 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:11 am
Anbell wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:10 am


Ive never heard that you need to be running BA.
They explain how to do it in the API FAQ so it's not a big deal, so long as it's used reasonably rather than habitually.
So exactly, i would be doing it on every single bet, so I'd call that habitually!
I dont think that'd be a problem, tho I dont know for sure. I do it 500 times an hour without a problem.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Anbell wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:24 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:01 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:11 am

They explain how to do it in the API FAQ so it's not a big deal, so long as it's used reasonably rather than habitually.
So exactly, i would be doing it on every single bet, so I'd call that habitually!
I dont think that'd be a problem, tho I dont know for sure. I do it 500 times an hour without a problem.
Do you use BA though?
Im just hypothesising they would be more lenient to the BA subscription... since they know it's a standard feature of BA and BA is no doubt a significant volume them..
Anbell
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

goat68 wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:34 am
Anbell wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:24 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:01 am


So exactly, i would be doing it on every single bet, so I'd call that habitually!
I dont think that'd be a problem, tho I dont know for sure. I do it 500 times an hour without a problem.
Do you use BA though?
Im just hypothesising they would be more lenient to the BA subscription... since they know it's a standard feature of BA and BA is no doubt a significant volume them..
I'm not a normal user, but I suspect that you're seeing ghosts where there arent any. (I dont know though)
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

I follow Peter's twitter feed, just noticed this link today: https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/valu ... r-trading/
Of course I am doing "value betting", and this is a great article summarising my joys and woes, this paragraph is great and VERY true:
"
When you are doing well with a result dependent strategy, it’s easy to think you are a god and when you are doing badly it’s easy to think you are an idiot. This is one key reason that people have trouble replicating or even creating successful strategies.
"
Just wondering if Peter's reason for re-posting this was my recent Ups and Downs...!?!
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

I’ve been thinking about some of the analysis comments from earlier in this tread for about 10 days now to the point where I feel inclined to ask more because I feel it may be really useful for my personal analysis.

I’m intrigued by the taking of the cumulative PnL and comparing it to an indicator such as the price-vwap. I believe it was said this checks the effectiveness of whatever you use as the x-axis i.e. price-vwap? I caught something about putting results into buckets and then doing this cumulative thing, I have no idea?

I’m mainly referring to Shaun’s explanation here at: Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:50 am

I’m theorising capturing a bunch of variables with each trade and creating one of these graphs for each to check their effectiveness simultaneously, not sure if this is how it works. Shaun or others, could anybody help me out please?

For (a bad) example, say I want to check whether my bot performs better at the point the markets has a high overround or a tight one, could I capture the book % at the point each of my trades close along with that trade’s PnL and group this data into discrete chunks i.e. book% = 100%-101%, 101.1%-102%, 102.1%-103% … 110%+

Then, map out the cumulative frequency or something and that will show where book% plays the most significant part in my system? If the results are similar with both halves of my sample, then it may be significant? Is that the rough gist of what’s going on? Apologies if I have misunderstood.
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