Trading What I see !?

[ShaunWhite]

That's pretty much it Callum. I won't do a long reply with examples etc cos my pc is dead, and there's obviously nuance, but sorting results by things other than date can show where you're losing/winning. Grouping by bands is useful if you don't have a very big sample but you can usually get a feel for it not grouping. Your bet history and all the circumstances at the time the bets are placed is a really useful source of info.

[CallumPerry]

Cumulative Frequency Book %.xlsx

Is this the right kind of way to set it up? I'm selfishly taking over the thread for my own development but I feel this could help Goat68 too. I hypothetically created a book% figure which would be captured as the trade opens in column A and a hypothetical PnL result -£2 to £3, over 1,000 trades, in column B. Columns G:L are the buckets and columns P:U contains the cumulative frequency.

As all of the results have a +ve expectancy, the graph shows all lines rising nicely. Is this how you would use this? Any series that goes -ve is a weakness of that strategy? Just before sending this message, i've changed the last series to be -ve, so this would suggest that this hypothetical strategy doesn't perform well when the book% is >110%?

If I am correct, this looks like something I would love to do more regularly. To throw in some ideas, instead of Book%, could bucket: market volume, race course, selection volume %, a custom indicator etc? I hope I have not missed the mark here and that it sparks some ideas for others.

[goat68]

Well AUS horse bot doing rubbish today, every one a loser, arghhh variance!

Screenshot 2021-09-29 at 10.55.23.png

[arch4672]

Well AUS horse bot doing rubbish today, every one a loser, arghhh variance!
Screenshot 2021-09-29 at 10.55.23.png

Are you sure it's variance, or it's just that your backfitted strategy isn't very good?

[goat68]

Well AUS horse bot doing rubbish today, every one a loser, arghhh variance!
Screenshot 2021-09-29 at 10.55.23.png

Are you sure it's variance, or it's just that your backfitted strategy isn't very good?

quite possibly!
I think I might have to start not relying on backtesting so much, it's far too easy to just "fit" things it would seem...

[Realrocknrolla]

Well AUS horse bot doing rubbish today, every one a loser, arghhh variance!
Screenshot 2021-09-29 at 10.55.23.png

Are you sure it's variance, or it's just that your backfitted strategy isn't very good?

quite possibly!
I think I might have to start not relying on backtesting so much, it's far too easy to just "fit" things it would seem...

What happened to your Inplay ideas?

[goat68]

Starting to come to the conclusion it's just not possible to find an edge based purely on technical price action.
Which maybe the case, as with 1000s of very smart algo traders out there and throw in some advanced AI/ML systems, anything technical would be found very quickly and squashed...

[goat68]

Are you sure it's variance, or it's just that your backfitted strategy isn't very good?

quite possibly!
I think I might have to start not relying on backtesting so much, it's far too easy to just "fit" things it would seem...

What happened to your Inplay ideas?

First, i've not got any inplay ideas as such! but thought i'd pursue the many many hours i've put into what i've done so far pre-race, before giving up on it.

[goat68]

Just had another peek at bot, down -£59 today, 12 losses out of 14 markets
This is a mugs game

[beermonsterman]

My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple

[goat68]

My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple

My current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay

I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20

[goat68]

Just turned all bots off, they are a waste...
September:

Screenshot 2021-09-29 at 20.27.18.png

[beermonsterman]

What works for me is high liquidity markets my automation will trade exactly how i want it too in high volume/liquid markets and would be an absolute disaster in low volume liquid markets it is a big player that most dont think about

[LinusP]

My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple

My current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay

I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20

If you are not enjoying it anymore stop, don’t waste any more money.

[goat68]

My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple

My current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay

I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20

If you are not enjoying it anymore stop, don’t waste any more money.

Thanks for your honest advice Linus, i'm seriously thinking about it at the moment. I've just being staring at Dallas's automation files, but not sure i've got the energy.