Trading What I see !?
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
That's pretty much it Callum. I won't do a long reply with examples etc cos my pc is dead, and there's obviously nuance, but sorting results by things other than date can show where you're losing/winning. Grouping by bands is useful if you don't have a very big sample but you can usually get a feel for it not grouping. Your bet history and all the circumstances at the time the bets are placed is a really useful source of info.
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- Posts: 575
- Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
- Location: Wolverhampton
As all of the results have a +ve expectancy, the graph shows all lines rising nicely. Is this how you would use this? Any series that goes -ve is a weakness of that strategy? Just before sending this message, i've changed the last series to be -ve, so this would suggest that this hypothetical strategy doesn't perform well when the book% is >110%?
If I am correct, this looks like something I would love to do more regularly. To throw in some ideas, instead of Book%, could bucket: market volume, race course, selection volume %, a custom indicator etc? I hope I have not missed the mark here and that it sparks some ideas for others.
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quite possibly!
I think I might have to start not relying on backtesting so much, it's far too easy to just "fit" things it would seem...
- Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1903
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
Starting to come to the conclusion it's just not possible to find an edge based purely on technical price action.
Which maybe the case, as with 1000s of very smart algo traders out there and throw in some advanced AI/ML systems, anything technical would be found very quickly and squashed...
Which maybe the case, as with 1000s of very smart algo traders out there and throw in some advanced AI/ML systems, anything technical would be found very quickly and squashed...
First, i've not got any inplay ideas as such! but thought i'd pursue the many many hours i've put into what i've done so far pre-race, before giving up on it.Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:43 pmWhat happened to your Inplay ideas?
- beermonsterman
- Posts: 522
- Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:47 pm
- Location: Birmingham UK
My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple
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My current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:beermonsterman wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:53 pmMy automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay
I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20
- beermonsterman
- Posts: 522
- Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:47 pm
- Location: Birmingham UK
What works for me is high liquidity markets my automation will trade exactly how i want it too in high volume/liquid markets and would be an absolute disaster in low volume liquid markets it is a big player that most dont think about
If you are not enjoying it anymore stop, don’t waste any more money.goat68 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:12 pmMy current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:beermonsterman wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:53 pmMy automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay
I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20
Thanks for your honest advice Linus, i'm seriously thinking about it at the moment. I've just being staring at Dallas's automation files, but not sure i've got the energy.LinusP wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:10 pmIf you are not enjoying it anymore stop, don’t waste any more money.goat68 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:12 pmMy current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:beermonsterman wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:53 pmMy automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay
I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20