The Fox in the Hen House

[wearthefoxhat]

Looked at several races today. Picked out a couple of interest.

Worcester 2.13

Tried to look at a race with a smaller field, Class 3, to see how it fares. In this race the Top 2 looked to have some value in them.

Worc2.13.png

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Worcester 4.33

Class 4 Novice Hurdle. The main market indicates 2 shorter ones, but the value is in Hermes Boy.

Worc 4.33.png

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Chelmsford 8.30

Top rated Anisoptera look interesting as the market favourite looks overbet. Couple of others in the race could be included too.

Chelm8.30.png

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[wearthefoxhat]

Mixed day yesterday.

Gubbed by the 1000-1 in running Wigglesworth, great result on the 16/1 Hermes Boy (was value at 10/1), turned over by Sir Mark Prescott again in another.

Quite encouraged looking at other results too with my previous hypothesis holding up. ie: Better class handicaps more consistent.

Barry Dennis confirmed in a recent YT video the bookies hate Novice races. This held true 30 years+ ago too, so that could be worth exploring more.

I've also had some success with Greyhounds using value data assessments. I suspect the higher grade races and Open races will perform best.

[wearthefoxhat]

So I took a look a couple of Novice type races.

8th Oct .2021

Chepstow 1.00

6. Mexican Boy looks fair value @25/1 along with 2.Earth Business @8/1 against the short 2/9 favourite.

Chep 1.00.png

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York 2.40

2.Selby's Pride looks okay at 8/1, prefer a little bigger. The one I kinda like is 11. Vadamiah @ 100/1 just outside the average odds line.


Vadamiah

Vadamiah.png

York 2.40.png

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[greenmark]

So I took a look a couple of Novice type races.

8th Oct .2021

Chepstow 1.00

6. Mexican Boy looks fair value @25/1 along with 2.Earth Business @8/1 against the short 2/9 favourite.


Chep 1.00.png


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York 2.40

2.Selby's Pride looks okay at 8/1, prefer a little bigger. The one I kinda like is 11. Vadamiah @ 100/1 just outside the average odds line.


Vadamiah


Vadamiah.png



York 2.40.png


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Thanks for this thread.
I've lost my mojo with analysis and this has tweaked my interest.
Whether that turns into useful crunching of my historical data remains to be seen.
But I hope it turns out well for you and thankyou for being so open.

[andy28]

Interested to know if the odds are all derived from just data or do you watch video's of the previous races as well?

[wearthefoxhat]

So I took a look a couple of Novice type races.

8th Oct .2021

Chepstow 1.00

6. Mexican Boy looks fair value @25/1 along with 2.Earth Business @8/1 against the short 2/9 favourite.


Chep 1.00.png


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York 2.40

2.Selby's Pride looks okay at 8/1, prefer a little bigger. The one I kinda like is 11. Vadamiah @ 100/1 just outside the average odds line.


Vadamiah


Vadamiah.png



York 2.40.png


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Thanks for this thread.
I've lost my mojo with analysis and this has tweaked my interest.
Whether that turns into useful crunching of my historical data remains to be seen.
But I hope it turns out well for you and thankyou for being so open.

Thanks.

I've always enjoyed the process of data input and finding a combination of key data that "paints a picture" in a recognisable form. I also enjoy using excel at a basic level too.

As we all know, horse racing has so many variables. some misleading, some underestimated. Just a question of focussing on what's useful.

[wearthefoxhat]

Interested to know if the odds are all derived from just data or do you watch video's of the previous races as well?

The odds are derived from certain attributes the horse/greyhound has achieved and how it compares with other runners in the race.

I don't watch videos of the previous race to produce the odds line (I know I should)

My original thoughts were, how did the oddsmakers produce a tissue price on a race before the internet/exchanges?

My view is that nowadays the bookmakers have gotten lazy and rely on others to form the market before jumping in. With this in mind, there must be an edge to be found if the right criteria/attributes are used to form the basis of a book %. The edge is, of course value based, but to be wary of the "rubbish in rubbish out" principle of data input.

[wearthefoxhat]

Something to take from yesterdays data (8Oct).

York1.00Final.png

The E/W thieves seemed to lump on Earth Business (4th) making more value for Mexican Boy (5th). Maybe Plimsoll Line (3rd 20/1) offered late value too.


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York 2.40Final.png

This race ended up nearly perfectly. The winner offered late value, the second @9/1 even more so, especially on the exchanges. Gutted the 5th place @125/1 didn't get home for 4th as I was on @17.58 in the extra place market!


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[wearthefoxhat]

Saturday has a lot of quality type races, not many bread and butter Novice-NonHcaps.

A couple of races that might work out.


Chepstow 1.50

Top 3 hold some value overall, so maybe some sort of dutch.

Chep1.50.png

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Newmarket 2.55


3 runners with a Value Index over 1.50 to take on the favourite looks worthwhile.

Newm 2.55.png

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[Crazyskier]

Hi Fox,

Glad to see you're still plugging away! I love this kind of value finding and refining a strategy the way you do. Your thought process seems to mirror my own only that I simply no longer have the time now I'm back working for 'the man'.

Keep up the good work.

CS

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi Fox,

Glad to see you're still plugging away! I love this kind of value finding and refining a strategy the way you do. Your thought process seems to mirror my own only that I simply no longer have the time now I'm back working for 'the man'.

Keep up the good work.

CS

Hi CS,

Gotta keep plugging away.

Bit of a damp squib yesterday on the 2 highlighted races.

Judging by other results, the types of races that seem to do well are the ones the bookies hate. (where the E/W thieves excel)

I dug out an old .pdf written by Isiris back in the day. Some of it is out of date, but the principles of value finding still apply.

[PapaShango]

I dug out an old .pdf written by Isiris back in the day. Some of it is out of date, but the principles of value finding still apply.

Do the principles of how to keep your au pair in check still apply too ?

[wearthefoxhat]

Thought I'd take a "craic" at the Irish racing today. A couple of races fit the bill where there's a short priced favourite. In all 3 races the favourite is top rated, but no value in their price. (Might change nearer to the off time)


Limerick 1.10

3. Ballywilliam Boy is on par with the favourite, but @ 9/2 looks an E/W steal.

Limer 1.10.png

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Limerick 2.10


1. Darrens Hope looks a fair type @12/1. 3. Ally Cay @ 16/1 not far behind.

Limer 2.10.png

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Limerick 5.05

5. King Kali @ 25/1 could be the best value over 1. Arturus @12/1

Limer 5.05.png

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[alexmr2]

Do you find that estimating the true odds doesn't work as well on Irish races because it's more bent?

I've looked at something similar before on UK racing and found my calculations were often spot on to the market price but I quickly became overwhelmed with which variables to factor in, I didn't have an easy way to test it over hundreds of markets. In the end I just left it because I assumed having a certain price in mind would just interfere with trading order flow (encourage holding onto losses if I got it wrong)

[wearthefoxhat]

Do you find that estimating the true odds doesn't work as well on Irish races because it's more bent?

I've looked at something similar before on UK racing and found my calculations were often spot on to the market price but I quickly became overwhelmed with which variables to factor in, I didn't have an easy way to test it over hundreds of markets. In the end I just left it because I assumed having a certain price in mind would just interfere with trading order flow (encourage holding onto losses if I got it wrong)

Irish racing has to handled with kid gloves that's for sure.

The better quality races are farmed by the bigger stables, ie: W.P.Mullins/G.Elliott/H.De-Bromhead. The less quality type races anything could happen.

The races I've posted are won by a high percentage of top rated that I don't see any value in. The frustration with value betting bigger price types are the near misses and long runs without a return. Yesterday, King Kali was backed down from 25/1 to 11/2 (2nd).

The strong favourites (top rated) are well backed as they are on everyones radar, so this may present a pre-trade opportunity.

Also, If they are running well in-play, then a B2L trade could occur too.

The L2B types can be those that are short in market price, but below the line ave rating line, so represent poor value to begin with.