Focussed on 1 race today.
I used a couple of different variations on the same race to see if there was a common demoninator.
Musselburgh 4.10
Seems 11.Danzan & 8.Muntadab appear interesting in a competitive looking Class 2 handicap.
By comparison; 4. On a Session looks poor value
The Fox in the Hen House
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- Crazyskier
- Posts: 1167
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
Was going to lay session, but he's out to 6s. Have dutch-backed Danzan and Muntadab to place, so either one in top 4 is a net win. Thanks!wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:37 pmFocussed on 1 race today.
I used a couple of different variations on the same race to see if there was a common demoninator.
Musselburgh 4.10
Muss4.10A.png
Muss4.10BB.png
Muss 4.10C.png
Seems 11.Danzan & 8.Muntadab appear interesting in a competitive looking Class 2 handicap.
By comparison; 4. On a Session looks poor value
CS
- Crazyskier
- Posts: 1167
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
Just make sure both bets are above odds of 2 and adjust the stakes accordingly - more on the lower priced horse.
As it turns out both the horses backed started very well, but were outpaced in the latter parts of the race. Oh well...
CS
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Yeah, rough race in the end, although didn't impact those two.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:14 pmJust make sure both bets are above odds of 2 and adjust the stakes accordingly - more on the lower priced horse.
As it turns out both the horses backed started very well, but were outpaced in the latter parts of the race. Oh well...
CS
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Thought I'd post up 2 racetypes. A couple of 2yo Novice Stakes races and a Class 2 Handicap, all at Leicester.
With the 2yo races, there is less info around, it's just a question of what is personally considered important.
One thing that's noticeable is that the value can materialise quite late on as the market shifts around.
--------
Leicester 1.00
An open type of race where there are 4 close together as the favourite is maybe overpriced, although has chances.
The outlier is: 5.Mega Marvel
-------------------------
Leicester 1.30
Top rated 5. Kennet looks interesting.
The outlier is: 1. Bond Boy
-------------------------
Leicester 3.50
Top Rated: 1. Tomfre looks interesting, with a couple of others in support.
There are a couple of outliers; 3. Persuasion is one, but there are 2 others as well
Could be totally wrong on this one, gotta trust the process!
-----------------------------
With the 2yo races, there is less info around, it's just a question of what is personally considered important.
One thing that's noticeable is that the value can materialise quite late on as the market shifts around.
--------
Leicester 1.00
An open type of race where there are 4 close together as the favourite is maybe overpriced, although has chances.
The outlier is: 5.Mega Marvel
-------------------------
Leicester 1.30
Top rated 5. Kennet looks interesting.
The outlier is: 1. Bond Boy
-------------------------
Leicester 3.50
Top Rated: 1. Tomfre looks interesting, with a couple of others in support.
There are a couple of outliers; 3. Persuasion is one, but there are 2 others as well
Could be totally wrong on this one, gotta trust the process!
-----------------------------
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Good day overall today.
Certainly like the Novice type races, even Maiden types too. Handicaps continue to be hit and miss.
Certainly like the Novice type races, even Maiden types too. Handicaps continue to be hit and miss.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
The Novice Stakes race that ticks the box today is;
Bath 3.40
1.Geelong looks fair value overall. 3.Al Aabir is ok if 11/4 can be found. (then the exchanges will offer more)
The Outlier seems to be 6.Levitate.
---------------
On YT, Steve Lewis Hamilton is a blast from the past. He adheres to Value Betting and trusts his process and opinion. He mainly uses the exchanges nowadays, but maintains his approach.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcJlteZLhAM
---------------
Bath 3.40
1.Geelong looks fair value overall. 3.Al Aabir is ok if 11/4 can be found. (then the exchanges will offer more)
The Outlier seems to be 6.Levitate.
---------------
On YT, Steve Lewis Hamilton is a blast from the past. He adheres to Value Betting and trusts his process and opinion. He mainly uses the exchanges nowadays, but maintains his approach.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcJlteZLhAM
---------------
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:38 amThe Novice Stakes race that ticks the box today is;
Bath 3.40
1.Geelong looks fair value overall. 3.Al Aabir is ok if 11/4 can be found. (then the exchanges will offer more)
The Outlier seems to be 6.Levitate.
Bath 3.40.png
---------------
On YT, Steve Lewis Hamilton is a blast from the past. He adheres to Value Betting and trusts his process and opinion. He mainly uses the exchanges nowadays, but maintains his approach.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcJlteZLhAM
---------------
A non-runner and odds update puts an interesting spin on the complexion of the race.
Bath 3.40
-------------------------
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 85
- Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:38 am
---------------
On YT, Steve Lewis Hamilton is a blast from the past. He adheres to Value Betting and trusts his process and opinion. He mainly uses the exchanges nowadays, but maintains his approach.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcJlteZLhAM
---------------
There was an ITV documentary from about 20/25 years ago called “winners” about professional gamblers.
It featured some horse racing and some poker pros. The late ‘devil fish’ was one of the poker pros featured, and Steve Lewis Hamilton was the horse racing pro. They followed him round for the day.
It was a really good documentary. I used to have it on VHS but I lost the tape, and don’t even have a tape player to play it on now anyway. I can’t find it anywhere on YouTube , though would like to see it again.
It was only about 20 mins or so long, though was good to see gambling being shown in a positive light. All we get nowadays is bombarded with anti gambling stories and documentaries. It would be nice to remind people that if you work hard at it, treat it with respect, then you can actually win.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
That would be a good one to watch.PapaShango wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:19 pmwearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:38 am
---------------
On YT, Steve Lewis Hamilton is a blast from the past. He adheres to Value Betting and trusts his process and opinion. He mainly uses the exchanges nowadays, but maintains his approach.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcJlteZLhAM
---------------
There was an ITV documentary from about 20/25 years ago called “winners” about professional gamblers.
It featured some horse racing and some poker pros. The late ‘devil fish’ was one of the poker pros featured, and Steve Lewis Hamilton was the horse racing pro. They followed him round for the day.
It was a really good documentary. I used to have it on VHS but I lost the tape, and don’t even have a tape player to play it on now anyway. I can’t find it anywhere on YouTube , though would like to see it again.
It was only about 20 mins or so long, though was good to see gambling being shown in a positive light. All we get nowadays is bombarded with anti gambling stories and documentaries. It would be nice to remind people that if you work hard at it, treat it with respect, then you can actually win.
This one in 1994 (there are 4 parts) is interesting too. The guy behind Brimardon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmEbC107xCU
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Ok, another damp squib yesterday....some days chicken, some days feathers.
On review, I need to broaden the net on the value qualifying types, especially if the top end of the market is priced up about right. In Ireland, the market can change rapidly nearer to the off time, so it might throw up something interesting.
Tramore 2.37
On review, I need to broaden the net on the value qualifying types, especially if the top end of the market is priced up about right. In Ireland, the market can change rapidly nearer to the off time, so it might throw up something interesting.
Tramore 2.37
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Chicken today!
The early odds posted were.
The price recorded around 5 mins before the off and the result.
Prices taken for the Dutch
The early odds posted were.
The price recorded around 5 mins before the off and the result.
Prices taken for the Dutch
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Some more chicken today.
As previously said, aiming to cover any selection with EV+ (based on my inputs), and back if the value is offered within the market. Today I factored in a weighting scale from the top down. eg: Top rated Tissue price +10%, 2 Top rated Tissue price +15%....etc
The early value index is based on +25% on the tissue prices and offers a guide to the prices going forward.
With the winner, the target price was 2.14 and 2.98 was attained. The only other one was unplaced.
As previously said, aiming to cover any selection with EV+ (based on my inputs), and back if the value is offered within the market. Today I factored in a weighting scale from the top down. eg: Top rated Tissue price +10%, 2 Top rated Tissue price +15%....etc
The early value index is based on +25% on the tissue prices and offers a guide to the prices going forward.
With the winner, the target price was 2.14 and 2.98 was attained. The only other one was unplaced.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Some feathers on this one.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.