Trading What I see !?

[arch4672]

My last throw of the dice, i'm trying some automation with inplay Back to Lay. I review attheraces pace, predictor, cards in the evening for selections for the next day... Automation then drives the execution.
So far i'd say it's far more difficult than youtube videos and blogs make out! Real back to lay "Value" is actually very hard to find.

Is this one based on any analysis or have you plucked numbers out of the air again?

I like your scepticism!
As I tried to say above, via analysis of attheraces resources.

Yeah, but how have you come to the conclusion that the data on that site is of any use? What analysis have you done on the numbers you get from there and how they relate to prices in play?

[goat68]

Is this one based on any analysis or have you plucked numbers out of the air again?

I like your scepticism!
As I tried to say above, via analysis of attheraces resources.

Yeah, but how have you come to the conclusion that the data on that site is of any use? What analysis have you done on the numbers you get from there and how they relate to prices in play?

So a bit of "trust", and advice from pros like Peter Webb on using such websites, ref: https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/in-p ... cing-pace/

[arch4672]

I like your scepticism!
As I tried to say above, via analysis of attheraces resources.

Yeah, but how have you come to the conclusion that the data on that site is of any use? What analysis have you done on the numbers you get from there and how they relate to prices in play?

So a bit of "trust", and advice from pros like Peter Webb on using such websites, ref: https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/in-p ... cing-pace/

Madness. How much more money are you willing to lose before you call it a day?

[ShaunWhite]

My last throw of the dice, i'm trying some automation with inplay Back to Lay. I review attheraces pace, predictor, cards in the evening for selections for the next day... Automation then drives the execution.
So far i'd say it's far more difficult than youtube videos and blogs make out! Real back to lay "Value" is actually very hard to find.

How are you testing this? Seems a shame to have all that data and technology then "throw dice". Have you been able to apply objectivity to the subjective pace cards?

[goat68]

Yeah, but how have you come to the conclusion that the data on that site is of any use? What analysis have you done on the numbers you get from there and how they relate to prices in play?

So a bit of "trust", and advice from pros like Peter Webb on using such websites, ref: https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/in-p ... cing-pace/

Madness. How much more money are you willing to lose before you call it a day?

So you may have noticed by my latest Flumine issue raised with Liam, that I am doing "fractional" sized bets using the reduce&move method. So very small stakes, just above the INVALID_PROFIT_RATIO level!

[goat68]

My last throw of the dice, i'm trying some automation with inplay Back to Lay. I review attheraces pace, predictor, cards in the evening for selections for the next day... Automation then drives the execution.
So far i'd say it's far more difficult than youtube videos and blogs make out! Real back to lay "Value" is actually very hard to find.

How are you testing this? Seems a shame to have all that data and technology then "throw dice". Have you been able to apply objectivity to the subjective pace cards?

Not sure how you would do that, it's quite difficult to "scrape" attheraces website, they're not stupid!
and I don't fancy paying £50 a month for proformracing API, or £500+ a month for timeform API access !!
I've managed to get Flumine bets down to just above INVALID_PROFIT_RATIO levels, so small 50p-£1 sort of stakes.

As i've been through the wars with trying "value at any time", really can't see how you make money from it...

[Emmson]

Does repeated use of small stakes like for instance 5p 250 times in 1 day via API fall foul of anything? Is this allowed?

I remember Shaun displaying a P&L where the staking was blacked out, do some of you bot fiends do this all the time?

[goat68]

Does repeated use of small stakes like for instance 5p 250 times in 1 day via API fall foul of anything? Is this allowed?

I remember Shaun displaying a P&L where the staking was blacked out, do some of you bot fiends do this all the time?

apparently not.
The fractional profit loop hole was closed some time ago, you get error code: INVALID_PROFIT_RATIO if you go that low...

[ShaunWhite]

I remember Shaun displaying a P&L where the staking was blacked out, do some of you bot fiends do this all the time?

I blanked it out because a gentleman doesn't discus his stakes fyi I average about 15 quid matched per offer.

Generally I can't see much point in trying things with pennies, scaling is so sensitive it's almost meaningless. The only thing Betfair clampred down on was penny shaving, laying small amounts at low prices to round the payout to 0p.

[ShaunWhite]

My last throw of the dice, i'm trying some automation with inplay Back to Lay. I review attheraces pace, predictor, cards in the evening for selections for the next day.

How are you testing this?

Not sure how you would do that

Exactly, so why choose that approach when it doesn't play to any of your strengths?

All trading is hard, you'd be better off sticking to one thing rather than changing your approach each time you encounter a problem. Eg If you look at the testing you'd been relying on 3 or 4 months ago I'm sure you can now see a whole heap of issues with how you did it, how about revisiting all that and not making the same mistakes again? Seems like you're paying for knowledge but then not using it, so you're not progressing.

[andy28]

Pace notes on their own won't help you unless you understand pace. It's pace that makes the race. You may see a horse may lead but the question is how much work did it do to get there? When reading a pace map it is important to look and what the horse that is running 2nd will do. The horse running 2nd determines the pace of the race.

A horse that draws well and gets an easy lead due to lack of pressure from the 2nd horse will take the pace out of the race (gets a rest) and turn it into a sprint home which suits those on pace, especially over a longer trip. If the same horse gets pressure from a horse drawn wide (or another horse wanting the lead) looking for the rail will mean in most cases a quicker pace and the leader doesn't get its rest so sets it up for those off the pace.

Down under sectionals play a big part because most track are similar in shape and size (with a few exceptions) compared to the UK so understanding them is key and also the Jockey. Which jocks will push forward from a wide draw and which will more than likely drop back to midfield or further back on a horse that may like to go forward.

I use the Racenet speed maps because you can move the horses around to suit how you think the race will go

[goat68]

How are you testing this?

Not sure how you would do that

Exactly, so why choose that approach when it doesn't play to any of your strengths?

All trading is hard, you'd be better off sticking to one thing rather than changing your approach each time you encounter a problem. Eg If you look at the testing you'd been relying on 3 or 4 months ago I'm sure you can now see a whole heap of issues with how you did it, how about revisiting all that and not making the same mistakes again? Seems like you're paying for knowledge but then not using it, so you're not progressing.

I agree playing to strengths, but from my experience so far I just can't see how "value any time" can work... Even Peter says you're unlikely to find a strategy that works for all markets........?

My circular process of trying to find a "value any time" was found something that was nearly there, then to make it profitable I basically "filtered" races/selections/prices/... but it seems all the latter was doing was "fitting!"

[goat68]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

[goat68]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROWhxLZgN2c

[goat68]

Remember all my "spike" stuff...?!
That was me trying from the other end... ie.look backwards, look back is the price 3ticks higher than 5seconds ago? if so Back... Then I tried adding all sorts of triggers to it, WoM, scaled WoM, VWAP, MVWAP, TradedBalance,...