I switch at times because I feel as though I am at a dead end, I can't see where to go, nothing seems to work...Tetras wrote: ↑Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:54 pmI know it's been said before in this thread, but it doesn't help when you keep changing ... whatever want to call it, disciplines, strategies, etc. From my perspective, the first step is to select the 'thing' that suits you, the second is to build the experience to know how/when to apply it. I'm open minded about having a model, but if it's ever going to work, it will need time and attention, there are so many variables. The selection process on your own model could be enough of a variable alone (in being overall profit/loss), or maybe your model is better at low odds than high odds.
Betting is a different animal to trading and while there are similarities, there's still a lot to learn. There's a reason there's a lot of betting activity in the market at certain times (like just after it rains) and in certain markets, for example.
I've spent over a year getting better (e.g. knowing which markets to use it, avoiding the big loss scenarios) at only one tiny way to trade pre-off, while amusing myself in-play. It took many months to be consistently profitable with it, even though it is incredibly simple.
Trading What I see !?
I wasn't trying to point out how hard I worked, I was saying that any strategy takes time to perfect and from what I can see, you spend more time exploring new strategies than building your understanding of the markets.
If you'd spent that 18 months only finding steamers, I'm pretty certain you'd have nailed it by now.
If you'd spent that 18 months only finding steamers, I'm pretty certain you'd have nailed it by now.
thanks...Tetras wrote: ↑Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:45 pmI wasn't trying to point out how hard I worked, I was saying that any strategy takes time to perfect and from what I can see, you spend more time exploring new strategies than building your understanding of the markets.
If you'd spent that 18 months only finding steamers, I'm pretty certain you'd have nailed it by now.
So the steamer thing is a lot easier "manual" trading, than programming a bot to do it. You can with a bit of work get 50% of the way there with a bot, but the other 50% screws your bottom line. Those markets that your brain interprets from looking at those ladders and for whatever reason doesn't jump on, the bot jumps on a great reversal and drift...!
Sunk cost fallacy.
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/the-s ... t-fallacy/
I really would advise stopping. Betting really isn't worth getting stressed about - it's ultimately pointless and doesn't contribute a great deal to society. There are much more worthwhile things you could be doing rather than sitting at a computer late into the night metaphorically banging your head against a wall.
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/the-s ... t-fallacy/
I really would advise stopping. Betting really isn't worth getting stressed about - it's ultimately pointless and doesn't contribute a great deal to society. There are much more worthwhile things you could be doing rather than sitting at a computer late into the night metaphorically banging your head against a wall.
It's hard for me to comment about automation, but from what I can gather, it doesn't matter if it's manual or a bot, you're trying to take advantage of something, some consistently observable behaviour in the market. If it's going to be automated then it probably needs to be a: more consistent, b: more describable (at least, within the constraints of the tools you have available).
This is all hypothetical, because I don't use the tools and probably never will, but for example: when the bot has a good day (or even a good market), why is that? What characteristics of the market suit what you're trying to do?
If it loses money, then why doesn't it work? Is it a change in the market conditions, or was there just an anomaly that you can adapt to? Did you not describe the conditions correctly?
I'd only dump the bot if it never makes money, because either it's not taking advantage of anything (since the behaviour is not present in any market), or it was described in such a flawed way, the bot is failing to execute anything close to what you intended.
From what I understood of your automation, you had at least one bot that broke even? If so, that seems like a good achievement to me, it's a base to work from and suggests you've defined and constrained the conditions well.
I'd imagine from all of the indicators you tried and how long your bots were running, you must have learned a lot, at the very least about what doesn't work. If you can figure out why they don't work, then you're half way there.
Less negative thinking and more critical thinking IMHO.
Failure is new information, new data if you will, you have to use it, not discard it by changing directions or quitting. Have a think about that one.
Look at Gazuty's excellent newbie thread, that's basically an exercise in "critical thinking". The methodology of finding an edge is clear enough.
Here's a seemingly random question for example, one that could easily warrant a thread of its own.
Who do you think is more likely to succeed at trading the racing markets?
A person who follows and knows the sport inside and out, but has an old gambling habit.
Or a person who can't tell the difference between a horse and a donkey, but has an analytical mind.
Who do you think is more likely to succeed at trading the racing markets?
A person who follows and knows the sport inside and out, but has an old gambling habit.
Or a person who can't tell the difference between a horse and a donkey, but has an analytical mind.
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
Kai wrote: ↑Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:34 amHere's a seemingly random question for example, one that could easily warrant a thread of its own.
Who do you think is more likely to succeed at trading the racing markets?
A person who follows and knows the sport inside and out, but has an old gambling habit.
Or a person who can't tell the difference between a horse and a donkey, but has an analytical mind.
Ideally I'd say a mix of both but if you could only choose one I'd go for the second option.
Old gambling habits are very, very hard to break (speaking from experience). It's a completely different mindset to trading.
How's you Kai? Recovered from celebrating yet?!
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ShaunWhite
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I had a bout of failure fatigue and the best Betfair trader I know suggested I stopped looking for money and started looking for knowledge.
I think that's the single most insightful thing I've ever heard about this game, pressure lifted, happenstance more likely, no subconscious bias, more parts for you to be more than the sum of, greater understanding, imagination sparked, etc etc etc. When the top guys speak I read, re-read and read between the lines, imo this one has levels and explains a lot about what seperates the men from the boys.
Kai, you're 100% as usual, it's only wasted money if you don't learn anything from it, you're just repeating mistakes, or you're paying too much for it. And you only fail when you concede defeat, so don't.
you 've got more knowledge and skills than any average trader . may be its time to spend more time watching real time traders going about the psychological journey of trading.
sometimes all you need is to let the' opponent' do the hard work . first you must slow down and study the market using the eyes of the like minded.
BA user with hours of screen time below.
https://www.youtube.com/c/MrExchangeTrader
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Realrocknrolla
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- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
Which part is pointless?arch4672 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:41 pmSunk cost fallacy.
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/the-s ... t-fallacy/
I really would advise stopping. Betting really isn't worth getting stressed about - it's ultimately pointless and doesn't contribute a great deal to society. There are much more worthwhile things you could be doing rather than sitting at a computer late into the night metaphorically banging your head against a wall.
Betting or stress?