No it doesn't.
Here's a brief thread with comments from Euler, LinusP, Dallas and me all basically saying just that viewtopic.php?f=37&t=19982&p=205043&hilit=
No it doesn't.
I stand by what I said, and already understand what is in that thread...and is within my expression of reasonable...ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:36 amNo it doesn't.
Here's a brief thread with comments from Euler, LinusP, Dallas and me all basically saying just that viewtopic.php?f=37&t=19982&p=205043&hilit=
I completely agree with you Goat regarding the psychological approach to strategy development - back testing is all theorygoat68 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:48 amI stand by what I said, and already understand what is in that thread...and is within my expression of reasonable...ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:36 amNo it doesn't.
Here's a brief thread with comments from Euler, LinusP, Dallas and me all basically saying just that viewtopic.php?f=37&t=19982&p=205043&hilit=
Backtesting v paper trading is the same emulation, but what is different is the psychological approach to strategy development.
Bactesting is all theory
Paper i can watch the live dog race, evaluate prices, watch dogs run, compare market view vs my model, and examine a single race in detail
Sorry that was a mistype... I meant increase commission to help reduce PCCardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:04 pm"There are plenty of people who reduce their commission by straight backing and laying."Trader Pat wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:48 pmStraight backing or laying is only gambling if you don't know what you're doing. There are plenty of people who reduce their commission by straight backing and laying.
Just like back testing is only pointless if you don't know what you're looking for. If you spot something when trading live you can then back test the data you've collected to see if it repeats. However collecting data and then looking for patterns in it is probably not so worthwhile.
Can you explain that comment a bit more
Depends on whether it's statistically significant because it's never going to be flat. And of course it's of no use going forward and just gives context to previous results. Even if it is statistically significant it won't persist because so many people see it.
yep, interestingShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:57 pmDepends on whether it's statistically significant because it's never going to be flat. And of course it's of no use going forward and just gives context to previous results. Even if it is statistically significant it won't persist because so many people see it.
The chart actually tells many stories that need to be thought about and investigated. A downward slope could just as easily mean there's simply been a run of results with winners averaging under 6
But it's akin to how a swing trader would look at the market tendency to have steamed or drifted. If it's been steamy, and they have a tendency to back first then they've had a tail wind and probably flattering results. Interpreting this sort of thing is where art meets the science and you only develop the 'feel' for the implications after a few years.
I just thought it was something you might want to add to your 'state of the markets' reporting to flesh out the bigger picture rather than it being something you had the experience to make much use of now.
It comes down to statistical significance. Beat sp on one runner and it means nothing. Beat it on them all and it means everything, beat it on some of them and it means something.