Today's Horse Racing

[Padawanbewbie]

Crazy market, but very happy

Peter.
I really like your style of trading. Do you have a low strike rate -but when you land one its a whale?
I've tried pre race but I get invested psychologically and end up making errors. I really like the idea of automation and the emotions are taken out of it

hi, No not necessarily. I have a a number of accounts and some of them are running multiple strategies, so I tend to be play right across the range.
Im not sure about that last sentence though! Although i don't trade manually, emotions are always there in my experience and i probably work harder and longer hours doing automation that I ever did manually!
id suggest just get a very simple system up and running (its relatively easy to find a profitable strategy (ie finding value)), the hard part comes when you try and scale and maintain matching rates.

Thanks Peter!
Terrific wisdom there.

[ShaunWhite]

Although i don't trade manually, emotions are always there in my experience and i probably work harder and longer hours doing automation that I ever did manually!

+1
Manual guys get the change their fortunes after 10mins....with automation it can be months, or months of work that produces nothing. It's different emotions but just as hard to live with. When you hit the F9 key and find out 00s of hours work as been for nothing, try telling me it's not 'emotional'.

....and automation isn't just mindlessly objective, the decision to twist or stick is a subjective minefield.

[Korattt]

out of interest I seem to get on with markets better with 6 to 8 runners, anything with over 10 gets a bit messy for me

[alexmr2]

How come a horse that has only won at a track 4/30 times (13%) can still get heavily backed down to around 3.0 (33%) prerace?

I understand that modelling the price is a lot more complex than just looking at horse and course, but wouldn't a statistical disparity as big as 20% indicate some poor value in backing this runner?

Or does the market know best? I suppose the other horses in the race could have won 0 times at said course

[Korattt]

How come a horse that has only won at a track 4/30 times (13%) can still get heavily backed down to around 3.0 (33%) prerace?

I understand that modelling the price is a lot more complex than just looking at horse and course, but wouldn't a statistical disparity as big as 20% indicate some poor value in backing this runner?

Or does the market know best? I suppose the other horses in the race could have won 0 times at said course

does the market know best?, I guess it’s down to those who see what as value, I got a bit of luck with last week with an outsider, why did I back it?, because based what the circumstances were after the same trainer / jockey combo landed she only had one other entry on the day, I think it does depend on a lot of things on the day, 50/1 ISP , think that was its 2nd win in 6 races or thereabouts

[alexmr2]

How come a horse that has only won at a track 4/30 times (13%) can still get heavily backed down to around 3.0 (33%) prerace?

I understand that modelling the price is a lot more complex than just looking at horse and course, but wouldn't a statistical disparity as big as 20% indicate some poor value in backing this runner?

Or does the market know best? I suppose the other horses in the race could have won 0 times at said course

does the market know best?, I guess it’s down to those who see what as value, I got a bit of luck with last week with an outsider, why did I back it?, because based what the circumstances were after the same trainer / jockey combo landed she only had one other entry on the day, I think it does depend on a lot of things on the day, 50/1 ISP , think that was its 2nd win in 6 races or thereabouts

I do notice a lot of big drifters (and even some commentator-tipped outsiders) winning, but I only really focus on trading order flow. Would need to test things over a big sample size to see if there is long-term value there or not

[SteadySlobbin]

How come a horse that has only won at a track 4/30 times (13%) can still get heavily backed down to around 3.0 (33%) prerace?

I understand that modelling the price is a lot more complex than just looking at horse and course, but wouldn't a statistical disparity as big as 20% indicate some poor value in backing this runner?

Or does the market know best? I suppose the other horses in the race could have won 0 times at said course

You are able to come up with all sorts of weird and wonderful reasons as to why world events are unfolding, yet you can’t see past basic stats for explaining something as complicated as a horse race. You need to use that conspiracy head of yours Alex, and apply it to the markets.

Mainstream media would make you believe that looking at a horses course stats can help you decide if it is value or not, but it’s not true Alex, you are being brainwashed.


I reckon korattts 50/1 winner was the Pam Sly one at Leicester last week, I’ve seen him tip one from that yard before, well done korattt!

[Korattt]

I reckon Korattts 50/1 winner was the Pam Sly one at Leicester last week, I’ve seen him tip one from that yard before, well done korattt!

yup, only she’s only down the A47.. not too far from us & we deliver to her in our delivery office

[SteadySlobbin]

I reckon Korattts 50/1 winner was the Pam Sly one at Leicester last week, I’ve seen him tip one from that yard before, well done korattt!

yup, only she’s only down the A47.. not too far from us & we deliver to her in our delivery office

Yes I remember you posting something about one of her jumpers that went on to win at wetherby or somewhere like that. That one last week would have been a very nice double for some people I imagine.

[Korattt]

13:45 looks interesting

[wilf]

I think Millers Bank in the 13:45 at Aintree will struggle to win today, it has a lot of negatives, but hey it's racing anything can happen.

[wilf]

Like I said anything can happen . Erne River falling, and Pic dorhy not running well didn't help.

[Cardano]

I think Millers Bank in the 13:45 at Aintree will struggle to win today, it has a lot of negatives, but hey it's racing anything can happen.

[wilf]

I think Millers Bank in the 13:45 at Aintree will struggle to win today, it has a lot of negatives, but hey it's racing anything can happen.

Well done. £25 loss for me

[Cardano]