How do you become a winning trader then

[sa7med]

How do you get to carnegie hall?

[Derek27]

Thanks Shaun, don't get sun burn and take on plenty of beer.

No rest for the wicked, I'm concreting round my pond. And having a little sit down after realising the big black tree root I've been yanking on with the digger is my 30amp mains from the street! That could've been spectacular, 2ft down and just a bare cable with no armour, thanks Mr 1960s builds inspector!

Building regs have come a long way since then. They're now required to protect the wire and cover it with warning tape, but I'm not sure how even that would stop a digger.

[ShaunWhite]

How do you get to carnegie hall?

Practice, practice, practice.

One of my fav jokes sa7med, I just googled the origin of it and its attributed to Jack Benny who died in 1974 so it shows how a good joke can run and run.

[goat68]

There's a lot of ways to do it. Using fundamentals, looking for market moves or, as Archery1969 is alluding to, techniques (mostly lifted from HF trading) that rely on market mechanics and are applicable to any market. The key to some of those is realising how to exploit a zero sum game. If a portfolio of bets accumulated by betting anything at any time (aka blind) has same value whenever it's disposed of, then the price of the set called 'selections' hasn't changed. If 'prices' doesn't move it then becomes a game of trying to obtain value at anytime knowing that any value to get will persist. And that 'value' has nothing to do with form or even where a price will move (because the set 'prices' doesn't move) its simply getting a price better then prevailing mid price. Or at its simplest level, offering at an offset and refreshing periodically. But this and other HF trading methods are theoretically small and practically microscopic so only work at large scale. Eg Martini trading, anytime, any place, anywhere.

It takes a change of mindset though, most traders focus on market moves, but many algos rely on this idea that when you consider the set 'all' selections, then prices aren't moving. The underlying mechanics mean sports markets will always be a zero sum game, that makes it an interesting area to consider because it ensures strategy longevity. And being free of filters it's impervious to virtually all changes in market behaviour too. When choosing an approach you don't want to spend a year working on something that will only last 6 months or not be scaleable, so even though its difficult and often needs bespoke software to achieve the scale and get the analysis, its a very popular and reliable approach.

Allow me to present Exhibit A, Mr Goat68. He spent 6 months "trading what he saw". Then I (and I assume others) spent a year guiding him through the theory, analysis and execution, and voilà. Trading moving markets is hard but as soon as you stop trading individual selections and think about trading the market as a whole then its less complicated. Goat's thread pretty much explains it although it would be hard sorting the wheat from the chaff in a 300 page thread. So in the spirit of passing knowledge forward then I hope he'll field any questions I certainly don't want to got through that again, he knows he's responsible for me having even more grey hairs

Bit of a long post, but Archery asked how other methods work and fitting an explanation of one into a paragraph when it could fill a book isn't easy. And I'm missing the precious sunshine to do it!

Thanks Shaun, don't get sun burn and take on plenty of beer.

As Shaun said...!
I'd only add the reinforcement about looking at it from a market perspective more, also what PeterW recommends over and over again that being if you trade randomly you will end up breakeven or there abouts in the long run so all you need to do is shift the profitability a tiny bit and bingo...
It's not that straight forward though, as not all market types are the same, UK horse market mechanics are very different to AUS horse Flat markets, which are different again to AUS horse Harness markets.... It's also not static, so the market mechanics now are slightly different to a year ago and that's because markets and participants change...this all means you need to be on top of the analysis, have the tools and understanding. I've written 1000s of lines of code and scripts to progress my understanding and tooling, admittedly a lot of that was down rabbit warrens!.

[gazuty]

A follow up question simple but also important. What would traders broadly recommend a novice like my self to concentrate on at first, dogs or horses? My only real criteria is which would likely lead to a greater chance of success.

Read this viewtopic.php?t=23699

[Derek27]

My only real criteria is which would likely lead to a greater chance of success.

Dog traders have a better chance of succeeding on dogs. Horse traders have a better chance on the horses. The only way of knowing which you're more at home with is to try them both.

[alexmr2]

Screenshot_20220622-040342_Gallery.jpg

[ShaunWhite]

also what PeterW recommends over and over again that being if you trade randomly you will end up breakeven or there abouts in the long run so all you need to do is shift the profitability a tiny bit and bingo...

It's not that straight forward though,

It's not straight forward because it conveniently disregards commission.

[Trader Pat]

Screenshot_20220622-040342_Gallery.jpg

Whats Mo Salah ever done to you?

[Vaz0202]

As a Newbie, still finding his feet, but in the green for the past few weeks, what helped me was watching the markets. Just record every event (let’s say last 10-20 mins). What is moving, why is it moving? What would you do, why would you do it?

At the moment, I’m looking to automate my manual trading so I need to start penning down the reasons for my actions. Not work off feelings.

I’m comfortable with the fact that I will never be a FT trader, I will never be a gun slinger like the cats here but if I can make a solid £10 a day it makes a huge difference in my life.

Everyday is an education and this forum really is a fantastic institution to pick up some sage advice.

[FattyGoLucky]

As a Newbie, still finding his feet, but in the green for the past few weeks, what helped me was watching the markets. Just record every event (let’s say last 10-20 mins). What is moving, why is it moving? What would you do, why would you do it?

At the moment, I’m looking to automate my manual trading so I need to start penning down the reasons for my actions. Not work off feelings.

I’m comfortable with the fact that I will never be a FT trader, I will never be a gun slinger like the cats here but if I can make a solid £10 a day it makes a huge difference in my life.

Everyday is an education and this forum really is a fantastic institution to pick up some sage advice.

Grats on last couple of weeks. Recording markets is exactly what I've been doing last couple of days and making spreadsheet of data

[FattyGoLucky]

My only real criteria is which would likely lead to a greater chance of success.

Dog traders have a better chance of succeeding on dogs. Horse traders have a better chance on the horses. The only way of knowing which you're more at home with is to try them both.

Definayly, thanks

[FattyGoLucky]

A follow up question simple but also important. What would traders broadly recommend a novice like my self to concentrate on at first, dogs or horses? My only real criteria is which would likely lead to a greater chance of success.

Read this viewtopic.php?t=23699

Way ahead of you, read the sticky few days ago. Was a good read ty

[Kai]

As a Newbie, still finding his feet, but in the green for the past few weeks, what helped me was watching the markets.

Would argue that even the newbies can often get the initial read of a market right, but they can get bullied so easily when the overall confidence is on the low side, can so easily get caught up in the market noise and all the emotions... To anyone starting out raise your hand if you keep having those "I knew it" moments but the market already played you for an idiot etc. And the fact that one is even feeling these emotions means they've practically already lost the battle.

[FattyGoLucky]

How do you get to carnegie hall?