WRONGSIDED_FLIPPING HELL

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Dr Ginhog
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WRONGSIDED_FLIPPING HELL
(1) BAF for Moving the GREEN entirely to the other RED side on A FAV FLIP
“WRONGSIDED_BACK FAVI with FAV2 PL AMOUNT.BAF”
You were on the original FAV but the price moved against you and the original FAV is now FAV2. Can you remedy this without putting additional monies into the MARKET? Yes! Possibly! - by backing the Profit amount on the FAV2 into the current FAV.
My guess is that many like myself have done this for years but not in a BAF necessarily.

Note also when you are moving the GREEN from a higher priced selection to a lower priced selection you will reduce the GREEN amount to a lesser GREEN AMOUNT
The issue with using this in multiple flipping FAV events is that for every change/move there is a percentage reduction in the original Profits. It does not take long to have the Profits spiral all the way to the bottom to RED/RED after multiple flips.
This will be worse when your starting price/Profit was Low.
So my suggestion is only use after a High price first bet. Possibly Not a bad move in some cases but a word of warning is that with events such as Tennis things change quite often (as Peter stated here recently and previously). My own Tennis testing has proved Peter right as usual. It is not uncommon to see a flipped FAV up to 10-20 times in a few matches in one day and you would definitely spiral to the bottom. How often it occurs depends on the Tourny and how closely matched the players were and their pre-match odds is the best guide for that.
The BAF for doing this automatically is downloaded here
WRONGSIDED_ BACK FAV with FAV2 PL AMOUNT.BAF.
It simply creates an SV from the Profit & Loss amount of FAV2 and BACKS FAV1 with the STORED VALUE STAKE from that PL amount.The effect of this is to ZERO the Green Profit in FAV 2 by backing the same amount in FAV1.
(effectively creates the stake liability on other side FAV2 reducing its GREEN to ZERO)
On the other hand if you were moving the GREEN amount from the FAV to FAV2 then the GREEN VALUE would increase. (not many would do this but not to be ruled out for some type of events and the BAF would also need adjusting for that).
Better to spiral up rather than spiral down.Right??
Extreme Bookamount version to follow in next post. Martingale in a single market event??? :roll:
WRONGSIDED_BACK FAV WITH FAV2 PL AMOUNT.baf
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Derek27
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Dr Ginhog wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:05 pm
WRONGSIDED_FLIPPING HELL
(1) BAF for Moving the GREEN entirely to the other RED side on A FAV FLIP
“WRONGSIDED_BACK FAVI with FAV2 PL AMOUNT.BAF”
You were on the original FAV but the price moved against you and the original FAV is now FAV2. Can you remedy this without putting additional monies into the MARKET? Yes! Possibly! - by backing the Profit amount on the FAV2 into the current FAV.
My guess is that many like myself have done this for years but not in a BAF necessarily.

Note also when you are moving the GREEN from a higher priced selection to a lower priced selection you will reduce the GREEN amount to a lesser GREEN AMOUNT
The issue with using this in multiple flipping FAV events is that for every change/move there is a percentage reduction in the original Profits. It does not take long to have the Profits spiral all the way to the bottom to RED/RED after multiple flips.
This will be worse when your starting price/Profit was Low.
So my suggestion is only use after a High price first bet. Possibly Not a bad move in some cases but a word of warning is that with events such as Tennis things change quite often (as Peter stated here recently and previously). My own Tennis testing has proved Peter right as usual. It is not uncommon to see a flipped FAV up to 10-20 times in a few matches in one day and you would definitely spiral to the bottom. How often it occurs depends on the Tourny and how closely matched the players were and their pre-match odds is the best guide for that.
The BAF for doing this automatically is downloaded here
WRONGSIDED_ BACK FAV with FAV2 PL AMOUNT.BAF.
It simply creates an SV from the Profit & Loss amount of FAV2 and BACKS FAV1 with the STORED VALUE STAKE from that PL amount.The effect of this is to ZERO the Green Profit in FAV 2 by backing the same amount in FAV1.
(effectively creates the stake liability on other side FAV2 reducing its GREEN to ZERO)
On the other hand if you were moving the GREEN amount from the FAV to FAV2 then the GREEN VALUE would increase. (not many would do this but not to be ruled out for some type of events and the BAF would also need adjusting for that).
Better to spiral up rather than spiral down.Right??
Extreme Bookamount version to follow in next post. Martingale in a single market event??? :roll:
WRONGSIDED_BACK FAV WITH FAV2 PL AMOUNT.baf
That doesn't "remedy" the situation as your profit on the fav will be going on the new fav at a shorter price so you'll have a losing bet on the new fav!
Dr Ginhog
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Hi Derek,
How about a winning Bet on the Fav rather than a Losing Bet!!. Im only giving an easy OPTION here. You were on the original FAV and favouritism flipped. So GET OUT by backing the NEW FAV without having to present new money is an OPTION not a guarantee.
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Derek27
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Dr Ginhog wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:06 pm
Hi Derek,
How about a winning Bet on the Fav rather than a Losing Bet!!. Im only giving an easy OPTION here. You were on the original FAV and favouritism flipped. So GET OUT by backing the NEW FAV without having to present new money is an OPTION not a guarantee.
What exactly is your objective, backing a team/player that you think is a good bet or are you trading?

Just look at one side of the ladder. Backing the other selection is exactly the same as laying the selection you've backed. But you're laying it at a higher price, so whichever way you try to view it, you're in a losing position!

You can green-up for a loss or close for a loss on either player and break even on the other. Laying for an amount that gives you a winning position on either selection will leave you with a bet at poor value in relation to current prices. I'm afraid if you back a horse that drifts, you're in a losing position. You may choose to wait if you feel the market will turn but no manipulation of maths can change that.
Dr Ginhog
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Hi,
The idea is this. You Place a BET either a BACK of the FAV or LAY of the 2nd FAV.
You are now GREEN on the current FAV so no reaction from the BAF. If the FAV goes
all the way without flipping to 2ndFAV then congrats your a winner. However whenever the FAV changes putting the GREEN on the 2nd FAV then the BAF reacts to PLACE your GREEN on the new FAV immediately on the FLIP. The new FAV is likely at that stage to be in the 1.8 to 1.99 value so the reduction in GREEN may not be massive.
Then again it depends Cricket can have massive price changes on a flip so its difficult to recommend its use in cricket.

I would only suggest its use in Matches that are unlikely to flip favouritism too often although you could still easily not reduce your Profits too much after 2/3 flips. You could still end up a winner after say 4 flips because you change tack close to EVS.
If say you change tack at 1.99 (EV is not possible) the its a virtual swap of GREENS at the original Profits
I could see this working in say darts where the flips might be limited or say on a solid FAV in Tennis with the BAF being a safeguard.
It just allows you to change tack when the FAV changes if thats your desire. Its designed to be part of your strategy but can be used as a strategy in itself. I suggest
you try it and Im sure good ideas will flow from that.
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Derek27
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Dr Ginhog wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:43 pm
Hi,
The idea is this. You Place a BET either a BACK of the FAV or LAY of the 2nd FAV.
You are now GREEN on the current FAV so no reaction from the BAF. If the FAV goes
all the way without flipping to 2ndFAV then congrats your a winner. However whenever the FAV changes putting the GREEN on the 2nd FAV then the BAF reacts to PLACE your GREEN on the new FAV immediately on the FLIP. The new FAV is likely at that stage to be in the 1.8 to 1.99 value so the reduction in GREEN may not be massive.
Then again it depends Cricket can have massive price changes on a flip so its difficult to recommend its use in cricket.

I would only suggest its use in Matches that are unlikely to flip favouritism too often although you could still easily not reduce your Profits too much after 2/3 flips. You could still end up a winner after say 4 flips because you change tack close to EVS.
If say you change tack at 1.99 (EV is not possible) the its a virtual swap of GREENS at the original Profits
I could see this working in say darts where the flips might be limited or say on a solid FAV in Tennis with the BAF being a safeguard.
It just allows you to change tack when the FAV changes if thats your desire. Its designed to be part of your strategy but can be used as a strategy in itself. I suggest
you try it and Im sure good ideas will flow from that.
I think it's pretty much guaranteed to lose. You're betting odds-on every time and in tennis it can flip several times.

Try it on O/U 2.5 goals, £10 on unders at 1.8 leaves you £8/£10.

When a goal's scored, that £8 goes on overs at 1.4 leaving you £0/£6.80.

Or if you bet at 1.9 your position is £9/£10.

Flip over and bet at 1.9 on the new favourite and you're £0/£1.90.

It can only flip once. As you're betting odds on, after a flip you have no more profit to bet with.
Dr Ginhog
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Hi Derek
You can provide examples of how it can be wrong all day. Never advocated for the
0/U market for it.. In tennis it will never flip to 1.40 thats guaranteed. I never promised
a perfect winning BAF here. Its more about gaining understanding until the perfect BAF is atttained. Thats how I see it. Add the various tools to your Toolbox increase your knowledge and it will come. Probably in some form of Martingale I expect. ;)
Dr Ginhog
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Hi Derek,
BTW your last example your flipping 9 at 1.9 and getting Zero Should it have been
new GREEN is 8.1 not Zero??.Even four flips beginning with 9 on the ORIGINAL bet al flips at 1.8 will get you the following
9 at 1.8 = 7.2
7.2 at 1.8 = 5.76
5.76 at 1.8 = 4.60
4.60 at 1.8 = 3.68 FAV wins when at 4.6. Not a bad PROFIT
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Derek27
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Dr Ginhog wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:02 pm
Hi Derek,
BTW your last example your flipping 9 at 1.9 and getting Zero Should it have been
new GREEN is 8.1 not Zero??.Even four flips beginning with 9 on the ORIGINAL bet al flips at 1.8 will get you the following
9 at 1.8 = 7.2
7.2 at 1.8 = 5.76
5.76 at 1.8 = 4.60
4.60 at 1.8 = 3.68 FAV wins when at 4.6. Not a bad PROFIT
If you're in a £9 / -£10 position, backing your £9 profit on the other selection at 1.9 wins £8.10. This reduces your loss on the other selection from £10 to £1.90, and you no longer have a green on the other because you've spent your profit, so you're £0 / -£1.90.

In your example above, £9 at 1.8 leaves you at -£2.80, NOT £7.20. You're forgetting your initial £10 stake!

Just try it in practice mode and see. :)
Dr Ginhog
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Hi Derek,
Im doing Practice Mode but its taking time. Im hazy on the exact maths of it right now but my sense is that its maybe not as good as I first thought but not as bad
as you present. Its likely that the liability increases beyond the initial stake so effectively you are presenting NEW MONEY after the first (free) flip. My sense also is that the profits while reduced will be real as outlined. I shall present with screenshots the outcome and the full Maths (for each step) manana
( No thats not my name I meaning tomorrow) Im not that credit card guy named manana you mentioned in the other post. I dont think im a master of self-delusion. :roll:
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Derek27
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Dr Ginhog wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:55 pm
Hi Derek,
Im doing Practice Mode but its taking time. Im hazy on the exact maths of it right now but my sense is that its maybe not as good as I first thought but not as bad
as you present. Its likely that the liability increases beyond the initial stake so effectively you are presenting NEW MONEY after the first (free) flip. My sense also is that the profits while reduced will be real as outlined. I shall present with screenshots the outcome and the full Maths (for each step) manana
( No thats not my name I meaning tomorrow) Im not that credit card guy named manana you mentioned in the other post. I dont think im a master of self-delusion. :roll:
The maths is simple; if you back both sides at odds-on you're guaranteed an adverse position. If you increase stakes (entering new money) you're just chasing your losses.

£10 on a 1.9 leaves you in a £9 / -£10 position.

If you then have £9 on the other side at 1.9 leaves you in a £0 / -£1.90 position.

£15 on the other side would give you -£6 / £3.50, so you've got odds of 1.58 on a 1.9!

£20 on the other side would give you -£11 / £8, which is 1.73, bigger bet but still poor odds.

Chasing losses further by increasing stakes for each flip will leave you with a huge liability and negative EV.

Sorry doctor, but it's a guaranteed loser.
Dr Ginhog
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Yes Derek I did warn that in my opening post " word of warning after a few FAV FLIPS you can spiral to the bottom" . I am reluctant to say "Trust me im a doctor" because Im not and the BAF probably needs adjustment anyway to have a better chance to work. Nonetheless sloppy on my part as I am now remembering all the issues with it that I momentarily forgot. It seems its a one flip only strategy.
I have an adjustment that might work. We shall see when the "Test Results " come through.
A second opinion is always good and it seems like another diagnosis is justified . Im not adverse to criticism though and will admit it when the "Test results" are in.
Like Martingale I have moved on personally from stop losses as a general tool but I would qualify this by saying they can be made to work in some circumstances. It depends entirely IMO on the amount of times they are called into play. So the underlying Strategy including where and when its deployed, which the stop loss is part of, is crucial to its possible viability.
I am not in the business of providing strategies either but not adverse to providing general hints about something I have seen work for anyone who puts in the work can figure out themselves.
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Derek27
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Dr Ginhog wrote:
Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:30 am
Yes Derek I did warn that in my opening post " word of warning after a few FAV FLIPS you can spiral to the bottom" . I am reluctant to say "Trust me im a doctor" because Im not and the BAF probably needs adjustment anyway to have a better chance to work. Nonetheless sloppy on my part as I am now remembering all the issues with it that I momentarily forgot. It seems its a one flip only strategy.
I have an adjustment that might work. We shall see when the "Test Results " come through.
A second opinion is always good and it seems like another diagnosis is justified . Im not adverse to criticism though and will admit it when the "Test results" are in.
Like Martingale I have moved on personally from stop losses as a general tool but I would qualify this by saying they can be made to work in some circumstances. It depends entirely IMO on the amount of times they are called into play. So the underlying Strategy including where and when its deployed, which the stop loss is part of, is crucial to its possible viability.
I am not in the business of providing strategies either but not adverse to providing general hints about something I have seen work for anyone who puts in the work can figure out themselves.
What I'm really trying to explain is backing the favourite at odds-on and then backing the opponent at odds-on when they flip is exactly the same as backing a selection at odds-on and then laying at odds-against, thus closing for a loss. You've got it wrong the first time, why go in again just to recover your losses?
Dr Ginhog
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I take your point Derek and also Flips of 3,5,7 puts you in the same position as regard which your on but much worse financially as 1 Flip but then again when the market flips to a new FAV well there is a good presumption the FAV is in a position to win and if you dont move your on a loser probably. My testing was going well but forgot to put
on the not ITF AND not UTR AND not CHALLENGER filter and a lot of the matches had
prices moving all over the place with 2 odds on together .Will redo on ATP/WTA only
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Derek27
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Dr Ginhog wrote:
Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:03 pm
I take your point Derek and also Flips of 3,5,7 puts you in the same position as regard which your on but much worse financially as 1 Flip but then again when the market flips to a new FAV well there is a good presumption the FAV is in a position to win and if you dont move your on a loser probably. My testing was going well but forgot to put
on the not ITF AND not UTR AND not CHALLENGER filter and a lot of the matches had
prices moving all over the place with 2 odds on together .Will redo on ATP/WTA only
Surely it's better to be on one loser than two?

Betting is all about getting value. You won't make anything simply by backing winners at any price.
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