Just wondering what you guys think on a question I've found myself asking recently.
How much does it take to control or 'bully' a market price in the current climate/environment? I realise that will vary partly depending on market in particular, but as a general idea...
In the past I would have thought a lot more than in the modern market, simply due to amounts around in comparison to the past?
Another way to put this more subtly would rather be to 'influence' rather than actually control a market, but the principles of effect of large money are similar.
Be interested to hear other's views on it though.
Money and control of market
- ShaunWhite
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We can all only speculate on that, imo It's hard to influence a weak market because it takes less to bring it back into line, and it's hard to influence a big market due to the weight of money. I'm not sure it's helpful to think about individual players, I think it depends more on the range of opinion. 100s of people run pricing models and probably scores with deep pockets, if they tend to agree it'll look like influence, where they disagree more then it'll be more rangey. If any one person wanted to move the market far from the general opinion they'd struggle.
- jamesedwards
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Even if you have the funds to move a market substantially, once you run out of investment the bots will move it back to equilibrium pretty quickly in any reasonably liquid market.
Last edited by jamesedwards on Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I've always stayed within the nacent liquidity in the market so that you can't be seen. If you pop your head above the parapet, you tend to get shot at.
I would have thought it was almost impossible to try and manipulate a market where XM exists as if you unbalance the market, your bets just appear elsewhere.
I would have thought it was almost impossible to try and manipulate a market where XM exists as if you unbalance the market, your bets just appear elsewhere.
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Thanks for the comments on this.
I think I'd summarise that people mostly think the market can't be moved (or heavily moved).
I do see that argument to some extent, but there is a simple issue - if enough money arrives then it can also be impossible to resist in the market - e.g. not enough layers willing to take on a heavy backer at bigger prices, so the prices collapse?
In an extreme example a backer that has more money than the other players will always force a price, as the layers run dry. But, it also doesn't need to be that heavy either. It can be simply layers adapting and being able to lay at a shorter price, so they just sit back and let that happen?
Not sure I'd agree that no control is possible given sufficient heavy money.
I think I'd summarise that people mostly think the market can't be moved (or heavily moved).
I do see that argument to some extent, but there is a simple issue - if enough money arrives then it can also be impossible to resist in the market - e.g. not enough layers willing to take on a heavy backer at bigger prices, so the prices collapse?
In an extreme example a backer that has more money than the other players will always force a price, as the layers run dry. But, it also doesn't need to be that heavy either. It can be simply layers adapting and being able to lay at a shorter price, so they just sit back and let that happen?
Not sure I'd agree that no control is possible given sufficient heavy money.
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Or different selections in the same market maybe?
- ShaunWhite
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XM (cross matching) is on the same market, horses don't have the range of markets for XMXM (cross market cross matching)
- ShaunWhite
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Remember all the bookies are watching BF too, it would be a hell of a player to hold back PP or WH if they saw anything really wrong.stueytrader wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:56 pmin an extreme example a backer that has more money than the other players will always force a price
Markets are a complex ecosystem and how they behave is the sum of it's participants actions rather than driven by individuals. I can't see much behind the conspiricy theories and "big backers" etc. It seems like a too simple solution to a complex question.
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There is another aspect to this question though (may apply to the other answers also) - that is it's not always about moving a market to an entirely different level, maybe sometimes just about moving it to a partially different level?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 5:16 pmRemember all the bookies are watching BF too, it would be a hell of a player to hold back PP or WH if they saw anything really wrong.stueytrader wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:56 pmin an extreme example a backer that has more money than the other players will always force a price
Markets are a complex ecosystem and how they behave is the sum of it's participants actions rather than driven by individuals. I can't see much behind the conspiricy theories and "big backers" etc. It seems like a too simple solution to a complex question.
Like I say, many layers will happily shuffle down to a lower price if they can get matched there?
That's arguable, James. Remeber that guy who likes to bet (back bets) his tons on uk horsies (he was very active last year, a few runners at a time in a same market)? I saw how he halved runners price with his bet and the market didn't has a mojo to put it back from where he pushed. It looked like Stuey saysjamesedwards wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:10 pmEven if you have the funds to move a market substantially, once you run out of investment the bots will move it back to equilibrium pretty quickly in any reasonably liquid market.
I don't remeber what liquidity numbers exactly were, not a Cheltenham numbers, but not aw venues numbers either. But I'm 100% sure that if it was Cheltenham then the market would chew the bomber without a problem.not enough layers willing to take on a heavy backer at bigger prices, so the prices collapse? In an extreme example a backer that has more money than the other players will always force a price, as the layers run dry
I remember it struck me, how could it be? the market always knows best, why the market allows that and just looks passively, there is a huge value in front of you!
So... It is possible, but the market will adapt, damn, I will adapt! there are half price runners - fill your boots !
- ShaunWhite
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How do you know it's huge value? This is starting to sound like you'd judge that by price proximity to something like vwap or vpoc but that alone doesn't appear to reveal much from what i've seen?
Check out the horse racing thread, Shaun. He made bets again and again for many days, it was very obvious pattern. it didn't feel like "wow! this dude sure knows what he's doing!", no. He was an obvious outlier.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:57 pmHow do you know it's huge value? This is starting to sound like you'd judge that by price proximity to something like vwap or vpoc but that alone doesn't appear to reveal much from what i've seen?
I'll find that disscussion if you want. It was summer, if my memory serves me right.
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Yep, those kind of very heavy backers were kind of examples I was also thinking of in this question. As you say, selections have had their prices massively shortened in such cases previously, maybe even halved!napshnap wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:32 pmCheck out the horse racing thread, Shaun. He made bets again and again for many days, it was very obvious pattern. it didn't feel like "wow! this dude sure knows what he's doing!", no. He was an obvious outlier.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:57 pmHow do you know it's huge value? This is starting to sound like you'd judge that by price proximity to something like vwap or vpoc but that alone doesn't appear to reveal much from what i've seen?