Maybe you should treat forum members more politely? I recommend you edit your post.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:21 pmDerek I don't need a lecture from you on 'probability' which has got nothing to do with my original question.Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:10 pmYou're doing it again. "judging the probability" of something happening has nothing to do with "knowing". Nor is it a question of judging the probability of the horse running out, it's the probability of winning, or not.
The chances of a horse running out, failing the weigh-in/dope test, etc. with two to jump are insignificant to its chances of jumping the last two obstacles and not getting caught. So you're just looking at it capsizing or getting caught. If it's well clear you may think it's got a 1.04 chance and it's trading at 1.02, so it would be a bad bet.
So can you refer your replies to the original question or FFS 'SHUT UP'
Is betfair dead?
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I see no evidence it was Betfair because anyone could have done it. If it was something with no possible explanation then I'd be more sceptical.
What you might want to consider is the placing bets is far slower than cancelling them. When you saw money being "hoovered up" that would most likely be offers being withdrawn rather than taken. You'll put speculative offers into the market wanting to back a horse at 5/1 and as soon as it flicks its tail you cancel them, someone else seeing that and wanting lay it at 5/1 even acting just as quickly will be over a second too late.
Does that help?
Ok I'll try and be clearer. I place a £100 'back' bet on West Orchard just before it runs out does the BF bot grab the majority of my £100ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:37 pmI see no evidence it was Betfair because anyone could have done it. If it was something with no possible explanation then I'd be more sceptical.
What you might want to consider is the placing bets is far slower than cancelling them. When you saw money being "hoovered up" that would most likely be offers being withdrawn rather than taken. You'll put speculative offers into the market wanting to back a horse at 5/1 and as soon as it flicks its tail you cancel them, someone else seeing that and wanting lay it at 5/1 even acting just as quickly will be over a second too late.
Does that help?
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Somebody with a view that's opposite to yours grabbed it. If you placed a bet 'just before' it ran-out, with the Inplay delay on placement it might have already runout when you had your back bet?
What if there wasn't a somebody / the somebody was BFShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:21 pmSomebody with a view that's opposite to yours grabbed it. If you placed a bet 'just before' it ran-out, with the Inplay delay on placement it might have already runout when you had your back bet?
Then it wouldn't have been a somebody, the somebody would have been Betfair.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:25 pmWhat if there wasn't a somebody / the somebody was BFShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:21 pmSomebody with a view that's opposite to yours grabbed it. If you placed a bet 'just before' it ran-out, with the Inplay delay on placement it might have already runout when you had your back bet?
So are you admitting in that case BF do have a botDerek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:37 pmThen it wouldn't have been a somebody, the somebody would have been Betfair.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:25 pmWhat if there wasn't a somebody / the somebody was BFShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:21 pm
Somebody with a view that's opposite to yours grabbed it. If you placed a bet 'just before' it ran-out, with the Inplay delay on placement it might have already runout when you had your back bet?
IF it wasn't somebody, IF the somebody was Betfair, and only IF those conditions are true, then it wouldn't have been somebody, it would have been Betfair.
The key question is why would you think it was Betfair? Wouldn't you lay the horse if you were live at the course and saw it run out?
Backing horses at short prices (often called sniping) is a high-risk strategy where you win very little and lose a lot when it goes wrong, so it shouldn't be too surprising if you do it enough to get stung a few times. It doesn't have to be Betfair taking the money. As Shaun said, it could have been anyone.
So Derek what is your answer to the question - YES/NO/NOT SUREDerek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:50 pm
IF it wasn't somebody, IF the somebody was Betfair, and only IF those conditions are true, then it wouldn't have been somebody, it would have been Betfair.
The key question is why would you think it was Betfair? Wouldn't you lay the horse if you were live at the course and saw it run out?
Backing horses at short prices (often called sniping) is a high-risk strategy where you win very little and lose a lot when it goes wrong, so it shouldn't be too surprising if you do it enough to get stung a few times. It doesn't have to be Betfair taking the money. As Shaun said, it could have been anyone.
How the fuck would I know? You'd have to be psychic to know who's on the other end of your bets.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:08 pmSo Derek what is your answer to the question - YES/NODerek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:50 pm
IF it wasn't somebody, IF the somebody was Betfair, and only IF those conditions are true, then it wouldn't have been somebody, it would have been Betfair.
The key question is why would you think it was Betfair? Wouldn't you lay the horse if you were live at the course and saw it run out?
Backing horses at short prices (often called sniping) is a high-risk strategy where you win very little and lose a lot when it goes wrong, so it shouldn't be too surprising if you do it enough to get stung a few times. It doesn't have to be Betfair taking the money. As Shaun said, it could have been anyone.
Both, Shaun and I have said the same thing. There's absolutely no reason to think it was Betfair. It could have been a manual trader or it could have been a bot. There are thousands of traders in these markets and if Betfair have a bot, the chances of Betfair getting the money would be slim.
If you're talking about Betfair having a bot that's not subject to the delay, I suppose it's technically possible but it would be cheating, against their own rules, probably illegal and I think it's extremely unlikely they would take such risks just to make a few grand. They get 20-60% of what successful traders make anyway so why bother? They could let somebody else take it and nick their percentage.
Well that looks like a NOT SURE answer from DerekDerek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:19 pmHow the fuck would I know? You'd have to be psychic to know who's on the other end of your bets.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:08 pmSo Derek what is your answer to the question - YES/NODerek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:50 pm
IF it wasn't somebody, IF the somebody was Betfair, and only IF those conditions are true, then it wouldn't have been somebody, it would have been Betfair.
The key question is why would you think it was Betfair? Wouldn't you lay the horse if you were live at the course and saw it run out?
Backing horses at short prices (often called sniping) is a high-risk strategy where you win very little and lose a lot when it goes wrong, so it shouldn't be too surprising if you do it enough to get stung a few times. It doesn't have to be Betfair taking the money. As Shaun said, it could have been anyone.
Both, Shaun and I have said the same thing. There's absolutely no reason to think it was Betfair. It could have been a manual trader or it could have been a bot. There are thousands of traders in these markets and if Betfair have a bot, the chances of Betfair getting the money would be slim.
If you're talking about Betfair having a bot that's not subject to the delay, I suppose it's technically possible but it would be cheating, against their own rules, probably illegal and I think it's extremely unlikely they would take such risks just to make a few grand. They get 20-60% of what successful traders make anyway so why bother? They could let somebody else take it and nick their percentage.
Just for the record if I have caused any personal offence to any Forum members in this post then please accept my apologies as it was not intended - posts can go off in tangents sometimesnapshnap wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:35 pmMaybe you should treat forum members more politely? I recommend you edit your post.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:21 pmDerek I don't need a lecture from you on 'probability' which has got nothing to do with my original question.Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:10 pm
You're doing it again. "judging the probability" of something happening has nothing to do with "knowing". Nor is it a question of judging the probability of the horse running out, it's the probability of winning, or not.
The chances of a horse running out, failing the weigh-in/dope test, etc. with two to jump are insignificant to its chances of jumping the last two obstacles and not getting caught. So you're just looking at it capsizing or getting caught. If it's well clear you may think it's got a 1.04 chance and it's trading at 1.02, so it would be a bad bet.
So can you refer your replies to the original question or FFS 'SHUT UP'
Absolutely nailed it. Nobody can be certain but it is extremely unlikely it was Betfair, for the reasons given.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:32 pmWell that looks like a NOT SURE answer from DerekDerek27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:19 pmHow the fuck would I know? You'd have to be psychic to know who's on the other end of your bets.
Both, Shaun and I have said the same thing. There's absolutely no reason to think it was Betfair. It could have been a manual trader or it could have been a bot. There are thousands of traders in these markets and if Betfair have a bot, the chances of Betfair getting the money would be slim.
If you're talking about Betfair having a bot that's not subject to the delay, I suppose it's technically possible but it would be cheating, against their own rules, probably illegal and I think it's extremely unlikely they would take such risks just to make a few grand. They get 20-60% of what successful traders make anyway so why bother? They could let somebody else take it and nick their percentage.
Last edited by Derek27 on Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
No worries Cardano.Cardano wrote: ↑Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:35 pmJust for the record if I have caused any personal offence to any Forum members in this post then please accept my apologies as it was not intended - posts can go off in tangents sometimes