Back book % added together question ??

[beermonsterman]

Hi guys been awhile but im running automation and have come across a bit of a strange one im struggling to get my head around and hoping one of you guys can help ill try to explain the best I can..........
I use back book percentage as one of my rule triggers so the question I have is if the fav has a back book percentage of 40% and the second and third have a combined back book percentage of 50% 2nd 25% and third 25% combined 50% basically add 2nd and third together would it be safe to say 2 and 3 combined would have more chance of winning than 1 ? or would you say their own percentages individually would be more accurate I hope I come across correctly its in my head but hard to explain
Fav = 40%
2nd = 25%
3rd = 25%
2nd and 3rd combined = 50%
would it be safe to say 2 and 3 combined can be used as 1 single percentage and have more chance of winning than the fav ?
I hope I dont come across wrong or its a daft question
Thank you in advance

[Derek27]

Hi guys been awhile but im running automation and have come across a bit of a strange one im struggling to get my head around and hoping one of you guys can help ill try to explain the best I can..........
I use back book percentage as one of my rule triggers so the question I have is if the fav has a back book percentage of 40% and the second and third have a combined back book percentage of 50% 2nd 25% and third 25% combined 50% basically add 2nd and third together would it be safe to say 2 and 3 combined would have more chance of winning than 1 ? or would you say their own percentages individually would be more accurate I hope I come across correctly its in my head but hard to explain
Fav = 40%
2nd = 25%
3rd = 25%
2nd and 3rd combined = 50%
would it be safe to say 2 and 3 combined can be used as 1 single percentage and have more chance of winning than the fav ?
I hope I dont come across wrong or its a daft question
Thank you in advance

Assuming the percentages approximate to the horses' chances of winning, and in general they do, then I would say yes. Two 3/1s have a combined even money chance, compared to a 6/4 chance for the favourite.

[Trader724]

Yes, the favorite with a back book percentage of 40% (odds of 2.5) has a 40% chance of winning, while the chances of any of the other selections winning are 50% higher. This means that out of 100 races, in 60 of them a horse that is not the favorite will win.

[beermonsterman]

Great thank you for replys
Can anyone tell me what you would use back book percentage for basically its main pupose is
Im trying to get an understanding of back book percentage
Lay book percentage
Book percentage
Implied chance
Reduction factor
Are they useful or should i just be looking at price
Thank you again

[Trader724]

Are they useful or should i just be looking at price
Thank you again

Price is just a more convenient format for expressing implied probability.

Decimal odds indicate the total amount that will be returned for a winning bet including the initial stake while the book% (1/odds) of a selection refers to the probability implied by the odds offered.

The market book percentage represents the sum of the probabilities for all possible outcomes and should be 100% because one of the selections is certain to win.

Back book is calculated by the back price and lay book by the lay price.

The book can provide important clues about the quality/maturity of a market and you may find it more useful to look at movements in implied probabilities than in ticks or odds intervals.

[Anbell]

Great thank you for replys
Can anyone tell me what you would use back book percentage for basically its main pupose is
Im trying to get an understanding of back book percentage
Lay book percentage
Book percentage
Implied chance
Reduction factor
Are they useful or should i just be looking at price
Thank you again

back book percentage can also tell you if a race is expected to start soon. If the race is listed to start in 2min but the back book percentage is 110% then it is probable that the 'everyone' knows that the race won't start in 2min.

(and if the back book percentage is 95% then there is either a) free money b) glitch in universe)