Lay the Poor Starter Guardian Automation Bot

[Dallas]

Hi Dallas

in the part of the file for greening up it says fill or kill in 10 seconds.

Does this refer to initial lay or is it referring to the green up part?

If the latter, does that not mean there is a danger the green up does not occur if it is killed after 10 seconds?

Thanks

The fill/kill element only ever applies to the opening side of the bet, any offset (if placed) will remain in the market until filled or you choose to cancel it

[kenfrost]

Thanks, that's what I thought but I just wanted to double check

[kenfrost]

Hi Dallas

Thanks for this.

Just a question about the 25 ticks back bet. That is quite a large amount of ticks.

1 Does that level of ticks ever get matched (apart from when the horse is obviously going to lose)?

2 Is your thinking behind the 25 ticks to give a sizeable profit, that over a period of success will more than cover any inevitable loss as and when the back bet is not matched and the horse wins?

I ask because I am running a variation where I have a £50 lay liability but offset by a bet of just 4 ticks. This gives rise to modest profits eg £0.83 - £2 per race, but it has thusfar always been matched.

My fear though is that one day it won't be matched, and the horse will win giving rise to a £50 loss that more than wipes out the modest profits.

I would welcome your thoughts (and indeed anyone else's thoughts/opinions) on my 2 questions and my version/worry that I describe above.

Thanks for your help.

[Dallas]

Hi Dallas

Thanks for this.

Just a question about the 25 ticks back bet. That is quite a large amount of ticks.

1 Does that level of ticks ever get matched (apart from when the horse is obviously going to lose)?

2 Is your thinking behind the 25 ticks to give a sizeable profit, that over a period of success will more than cover any inevitable loss as and when the back bet is not matched and the horse wins?

I ask because I am running a variation where I have a £50 lay liability but offset by a bet of just 4 ticks. This gives rise to modest profits eg £0.83 - £2 per race, but it has thusfar always been matched.

My fear though is that one day it won't be matched, and the horse will win giving rise to a £50 loss that more than wipes out the modest profits.

I would welcome your thoughts (and indeed anyone else's thoughts/opinions) on my 2 questions and my version/worry that I describe above.

Thanks for your help.

The values used in all the examples are just arbitrary numbers just to set the example up which users can then change to whatever they want. I could just as easily of used 5 ticks, 10 ticks or 50 ticks when setting this up.

25 ticks is nothing on a in-play market, runners can jump up and down 50+ ticks between each refresh so if offsetting in an in-play market you'd normally want set it to far more than a pre-off market and at the same time due to lower liquidity use smaller stakes

[kenfrost]

Thanks, I will give it a try using low stakes to see how it performs

[ShaunWhite]

I ask because I am running a variation where I have a £50 lay liability but offset by a bet of just 4 ticks. This gives rise to modest profits eg £0.83 - £2 per race, but it has thusfar always been matched.

My fear though is that one day it won't be matched, and the horse will win giving rise to a £50 loss that more than wipes out the modest profits.
.

Where do you think you have an edge? If you're placing bets with a random offset (be it either 4 ticks or 25 ticks ) then you'll lose long term. You're placing a bet that the price will move either Y ticks in your favour or X ticks against, and as usual that needs to happen more often than the risk/reward suggests.

Even when you're "trading" it's a straight bet that something will happen vs not happening. In this case it's not a bet on the horse winning or losing, it's a bet on whether it's prices goes up a certain amount or down by a certain amount.

[kenfrost]

Thanks

I think you have articulated my fear about this very well.

The "edge" such as it is, is that I only use my bot on races 2 miles or more (and no maidens), as such trying to give it long enough for the 4 tick target to be reached.

On a very general note about trading on Betfair (I am very new to it), I have as yet not come up with any strategy/technique/bot etc that leaves me feeling comfortable. I have singularly failed with basic manual pre off trading (I misjudge the market far more times than judge it right). So I continue look for an automated means that doesn't end up losing more than it wins.

Still looking

Thanks for listening and for your thoughts