US Presidential Election 2024

[firlandsfarm]

No, it is a matter of law. The law sets out when a judge or jury can make negative inferences if a defendant refuses to give evidence. In the case of Derek Chauvin, the jury was not allowed to take his refusal to testify into consideration. Judge's don't do what they feel is right, they have to apply the law to the case.

still using the tactic of misinterpreting something and claiming it's the law! Unless the law you are wanting to use to support your claim is in clear black and white such as "exceeding the speed limit" it is opinion. The law may refer to 'in the judge's opinion' so it's an opinion! Anyway I refer you to my previous comments on this and other issues ... get a life.

[Derek27]

No, it is a matter of law. The law sets out when a judge or jury can make negative inferences if a defendant refuses to give evidence. In the case of Derek Chauvin, the jury was not allowed to take his refusal to testify into consideration. Judge's don't do what they feel is right, they have to apply the law to the case.

still using the tactic of misinterpreting something and claiming it's the law! Unless the law you are wanting to use to support your claim is in clear black and white such as "exceeding the speed limit" it is opinion. The law may refer to 'in the judge's opinion' so it's an opinion! Anyway I refer you to my previous comments on this and other issues ... get a life.

Get a life? On this occasion I didn't post anything that could remotely be considered offensive or abusive, just disagreed with you, and that's upset you? What's the word for someone who can't tolerate people who disagree?

It does make sense to say it may ... so it is. That's deriving facts from an assumption.

[firlandsfarm]

still using the tactic of misinterpreting something and claiming it's the law! Unless the law you are wanting to use to support your claim is in clear black and white such as "exceeding the speed limit" it is opinion. The law may refer to 'in the judge's opinion' so it's an opinion! Anyway I refer you to my previous comments on this and other issues ... get a life.

Get a life? On this occasion I didn't post anything that could remotely be considered offensive or abusive, just disagreed with you, and that's upset you? What's the word for someone who can't tolerate people who disagree?

It does make sense to say it may ... so it is. That's deriving facts from an assumption.

where did I say your comment was offensive or abusive!! See what I mean

[firlandsfarm]

still using the tactic of misinterpreting something and claiming it's the law! Unless the law you are wanting to use to support your claim is in clear black and white such as "exceeding the speed limit" it is opinion. The law may refer to 'in the judge's opinion' so it's an opinion! Anyway I refer you to my previous comments on this and other issues ... get a life.

Get a life? On this occasion I didn't post anything that could remotely be considered offensive or abusive, just disagreed with you, and that's upset you? What's the word for someone who can't tolerate people who disagree?

It does make sense to say it may ... so it is. That's deriving facts from an assumption.

where did I say your comment was offensive or abusive and that I was upset ... far from it, see what I mean, no ... you probably wont

[Derek27]

still using the tactic of misinterpreting something and claiming it's the law! Unless the law you are wanting to use to support your claim is in clear black and white such as "exceeding the speed limit" it is opinion. The law may refer to 'in the judge's opinion' so it's an opinion! Anyway I refer you to my previous comments on this and other issues ... get a life.

Get a life? On this occasion I didn't post anything that could remotely be considered offensive or abusive, just disagreed with you, and that's upset you? What's the word for someone who can't tolerate people who disagree?

It does make sense to say it may ... so it is. That's deriving facts from an assumption.

where did I say your comment was offensive or abusive!! See what I mean

Where did I say you said my comment was offensive or abusive?

Clearly you don't understand English.

[firlandsfarm]

Where did I say you said my comment was offensive or abusive?

Oh dear ... boring!

[Naffman]

NBC national poll/second choice:

Trump 58/13
DeSantis 18/36
Haley 13/15

I'm struggling to see a path for Haley, I'm not sure why her ads are attacking DeSantis as the polls have proven that her only path is if Trump and DeSantis split the Trump vote evenly and even then its tough going. No wonder Trump hasn't cared about Haley's rise, she hurts DeSantis more than him. And that's why Trump has been so persistent in his attacks on RDS, he knows if he pulls out then Trump will pick a big share of his voters and then its pretty much over.

Also, generic Republican beats Biden by 11, general Democrat beats Trump by 8, both are severely unpopular.

[Naffman]

With the Iowa caucus only 54 days away what's everyone thinking?

GOP nominee/Iowa winner:

Trump 1.24/1.09
Haley 9.2/28
DeSantis 18/15.5

DeSantis last night just got (not surprisingly) the endorsement from evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats who has endorsed the 08/12/16 winner in Iowa, all of whom where well off the pace when the endorsement came. If you weren't looking at the polling and saw he'd had his endorsement as well as that from Gov. Reynolds you'd be thinking he's got to be leading, but no he's still 25pts off. Having had a look at the polling from previous years it seems things really start to change the last 2 weeks so around Christmas.

If you saw Trump's attack on Reynolds yesterday, not only is that a stupid move but his face looks gaunt and skinny, compared to usual anyway, could just be the lighting but he looks bad.

As many know I think Trump is short, DeSantis is too big, and wouldn't be backing Haley at that price but seems about right from the polls.

Am I on my own in my confidence?

[Naffman]

FYI this is the gaunt looking Trump from yesterday

IMG_6244.jpeg

[Derek27]

FYI this is the gaunt looking Trump from yesterday

IMG_6244.jpeg

The colour's been removed from the picture on the right, but it's been a long time since I've seen him smiling.

[Naffman]

FYI this is the gaunt looking Trump from yesterday

IMG_6244.jpeg

The colour's been removed from the picture on the right, but it's been a long time since I've seen him smiling.

His face does look really slim though and it seems he’s lost weight unless it is the lighting that totally changes his look. If I was facing 91 felony counts and already lost a $250m lawsuit I think I’d have some sleepless nights too.

[Naffman]

DMR/Selzer final GOP caucus polls (result):

2008: Huckabee 32(34) - Romney 26(25) - McCain 13(13)
2012: Romney 24(25) - Paul 22(22) - Santorum 15(25)
2016: Trump 28(24) - Cruz 23(28) - Rubio 15(23)

Caucuses are different, instead of just mailing your vote or privately doing it at the booth, your vote is public at a caucus and people can discuss the issues before siding with a candidate so ground game/pastor endorsements/local leaders endorsement means a lot which could possibly be why even A+ Iowa based pollster DMR/Selzer has underestimated the BVP/evangelical endorsee especially in 12 and 16.

[Naffman]

Haley matched under 6.0 which is far far too short. DeSantis now in the 20s which is just incredible to be honest. The latter is still the best to beat Trump in a h2h, Haley is far too moderate for this GOP, she’ll do well in the more educated, less religious white states but that’s about it.

Don’t get me wrong if DeSantis can’t pull it off I’d like to see Haley do it but for her to be 5x shorter is ridiculous.

Newsom DeSantis debate tonight, alike Haley, Newsom is hovering around 6.0 to be nominee which is absolutely nuts, it seems to be a right wing theory that Biden is going to pull out and let Newsom take over, yes really.

There has been less Iowa polls this year than 2016 and 2012 which is crazy considering polling is big business these days, there’s not been many from NH and SC either.

[Naffman]

The Iowa Caucus has never meant so much to a primary then this cycle's with Trump either winning the primary in the first state or showing his vulnerability. Yet, since 1st November we've had MAGA Trafalgar post 2 polls, Trump's own pollster Fabrizio post 1, Haley's recently endorsed group AFP post one, so 2 (not even big pollsters) non-aligned pollsters in possibly the biggest/most important primary of the last decade.

Looking back to 2016/12/08 there were Iowa polls almost everyday.

[Derek27]