Hi,
I sort of get that but my lay is always done by liability so my profits don't ever get wiped out by one race unless it is very early on in the day. These seem to get made up in time. I may get a run of losses that may take me to negative but that seems to always get balanced out by a run of wins that pulls it back up again. The strike rate is very constant at 67 - 69% and the average profit and loss are constant at +14-15 and -29-30. I am also going to trial a stop trading rule when the daily profit is above a certain dollar value. I know there is much debate about whether this makes sense or not but I believe it can be used to take advantage of these runs of profit that invariably get reduced by the run of losses. That is another story apart from the data collection.
Thanks for your input.
Regards,
Anthony
Application of data
It depends on your median odds. Google P-value_calculatorajanthony wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 6:25 amHello,
My question is not the same as the previous but it is to do with statistics.
How many races is enough to believe the edge you have is valid. I am currently collecting data which shows that after 2500 races I have a an edge of just over 1%. I intend to sample 10,000 races, is this enough.
My strike rate, or should I say, my positive return rate (as I lay, not back) is 67% and this has remained constant right from the start.
Any insight appreciated.
Regards,
Anthony
Not really following that.
My method is simple. I have tried many automations in the last 15 months, some very complicated with all sorts of conditions. They have never been able to sustain a positive return like the current simple automation I use now.
As I say, I have data for just over 2500 races and showing a good return. The average win, average loss, strike rate and ROI have been very consistent so I guess I will keep gathering the data and if the results are the same after 10,000 races I think I can safely say I have found my edge.
Regards,
Anthony
My method is simple. I have tried many automations in the last 15 months, some very complicated with all sorts of conditions. They have never been able to sustain a positive return like the current simple automation I use now.
As I say, I have data for just over 2500 races and showing a good return. The average win, average loss, strike rate and ROI have been very consistent so I guess I will keep gathering the data and if the results are the same after 10,000 races I think I can safely say I have found my edge.
Regards,
Anthony