How would you handle this football trading opportunity?

[arbitrage16]

Alert comes in - lay the draw. Strike rate on these alerts is 75%.

Game is 0-0. 48 minutes gone. Price on the draw at the time of alert is 3.0.

This is a new system for me and outside of my usual trading style - I trade in-running horses and that, for me, is more about pattern recognition.

[Derek27]

Alert comes in - lay the draw. Strike rate on these alerts is 75%.

Game is 0-0. 48 minutes gone. Price on the draw at the time of alert is 3.0.

This is a new system for me and outside of my usual trading style - I trade in-running horses and that, for me, is more about pattern recognition.

If the strike rate on those alerts is 75%, what's the average price of all those winning lays?

[Michael5482]

Alert comes in - lay the draw. Strike rate on these alerts is 75%.

Game is 0-0. 48 minutes gone. Price on the draw at the time of alert is 3.0.

This is a new system for me and outside of my usual trading style - I trade in-running horses and that, for me, is more about pattern recognition.

I'd look at the game in more detail. If a game is 48 mins old and nothing has changed from the 1st half then personally I'll leave it and keep an eye on it, I like to see some type of change or intent on the pitch formation change, substitutions, team tiring basically some type of catalyst into the game so to speak.

It's one of them ones 0-0 lay the draw everyone has their own trading style, strategy's etc You could get 5 different answers but also all be right.

[Atho55]

I have no idea if this goal timing tool can be used this way but if you select all the minutes after 48 for both the 1st home goal and 1st away goal then the correct score outcomes of the matches at least for the Premiership I figure look like this.

49m Onwards.png

[Kai]

Tbh I wouldn't automatically assume that it was an opportunity for starters. FWIW not a big fan of tipster alerts, or stats, which I dropped in the first year.

But isn't the 75% accuracy more of a sales pitch than the expected accuracy for the average end user?

Your own accuracy would depend on how many alerts you actually catch so could vary in the shorter term. Another annoying bit (besides not really knowing where your edge comes from) is you basically turn trading into an on-call job which you have no real control over.

Rebelo played around with goal alerts and it didn't work that well, users were piling on too quickly turning value prices into terrible ones, which people were still desperate to get on out of pure FOMO!

That being said, obviously it's probably better than nothing