SP versus BSP

[Shergar6]

Hi,
Just wondering if anyone knows what the differential over the long term between SP and BSP for horses at the head of the market? Is it just the comm that means the BSP trades at slightly higher odds? Interested in horses trading below 2s

[jamesedwards]

Hi,
Just wondering if anyone knows what the differential over the long term between SP and BSP for horses at the head of the market? Is it just the comm that means the BSP trades at slightly higher odds? Interested in horses trading below 2s

Don't know specifically about the head of the market, but on the complete book, SP will average at about 110-130% depending on the race, whereas BSP will average at about 100% (before commission).

My instinct says the two will get tighter the closer you get to the top of the market, but I don't know if that always plays out. I'm sure you'll still be getting better value on BSP in the long run though, even with commission.

[Atho55]

Adrian Massey has some data on SP that might be what you are looking for....
https://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/odd/flodd0.htm

[Fugazi]

Adrian Massey has some data on SP that might be what you are looking for....
https://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/odd/flodd0.htm

But looking at that chart I could lay BSP at most odds and profit , including comission?

Obviously that cant be the case ?

I guess one problem is you have to lay on liability not stake

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi,
Just wondering if anyone knows what the differential over the long term between SP and BSP for horses at the head of the market? Is it just the comm that means the BSP trades at slightly higher odds? Interested in horses trading below 2s

The BSP used be best by 20%+ compared to the ISP. (was one of their USP's to gain market share)

Reckon that's less nowadays, as there seem to some big, late, market moves at the front end of the market. (maybe an opportunity for the layers to gain some value?)

[wearthefoxhat]

Adrian Massey has some data on SP that might be what you are looking for....
https://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/odd/flodd0.htm

But looking at that chart I could lay BSP at most odds and profit , including comission?

Obviously that cant be the case ?

I guess one problem is you have to lay on liability not stake

Yes, there are some good opportunities to lay at the front end of the market.

Laying at stake is said to be more efficient mathematically than laying at liability.

[Fugazi]

Adrian Massey has some data on SP that might be what you are looking for....
https://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/odd/flodd0.htm

But looking at that chart I could lay BSP at most odds and profit , including comission?

Obviously that cant be the case ?

I guess one problem is you have to lay on liability not stake

Yes, there are some good opportunities to lay at the front end of the market.

Laying at stake is said to be more efficient mathematically than laying at liability.

Yeah I ran through chat gpt a somewhat similar strategy a while ago. Really profitable laying at stakes, but failed when having to lay at liabilities.

Tried to find away around it, but BSP was just too unpredictable for me to try guess the BSP and adjust my liability to make them more like stakes.

[wearthefoxhat]

But looking at that chart I could lay BSP at most odds and profit , including comission?

Obviously that cant be the case ?

I guess one problem is you have to lay on liability not stake

Yes, there are some good opportunities to lay at the front end of the market.

Laying at stake is said to be more efficient mathematically than laying at liability.

Yeah I ran through chat gpt a somewhat similar strategy a while ago. Really profitable laying at stakes, but failed when having to lay at liabilities.

Tried to find away around it, but BSP was just too unpredictable for me to try guess the BSP and adjust my liability to make them more like stakes.

Just thinking/writing out aloud.

You could use BSP more for insurance. If you catch a drifter, either manually or using a bot, best to secure your profit pre-BSP, if not, then set the lay stake for the last known price, if unmatched, let BSP complete your trade.

You'll never actually guess the actual BSP, but it won't be too far removed from the last known price 5-10 seconds before the off. Sometimes it may take away some profit, but could also work in your favour too.

One issue, especially with UK racing, are the delays and not sticking to the off times.The market could still be swinging around during this time and wreck your trade.

Also, if you're trading pre-off, don't be tempted to let it go in-play. In-play trading is a different animal.

[Fugazi]

Yes, there are some good opportunities to lay at the front end of the market.

Laying at stake is said to be more efficient mathematically than laying at liability.

Yeah I ran through chat gpt a somewhat similar strategy a while ago. Really profitable laying at stakes, but failed when having to lay at liabilities.

Tried to find away around it, but BSP was just too unpredictable for me to try guess the BSP and adjust my liability to make them more like stakes.

Just thinking/writing out aloud.

You could use BSP more for insurance. If you catch a drifter, either manually or using a bot, best to secure your profit pre-BSP, if not, then set the lay stake for the last known price, if unmatched, let BSP complete your trade.

You'll never actually guess the actual BSP, but it won't be too far removed from the last known price 5-10 seconds before the off. Sometimes it may take away some profit, but could also work in your favour too.

One issue, especially with UK racing, are the delays and not sticking to the off times.The market could still be swinging around during this time and wreck your trade.

Also, if you're trading pre-off, don't be tempted to let it go in-play. In-play trading is a different animal.

Thinking about it I can tweak your idea to suit my style. See manually what the price is near the off and stick the corresponding stake into laying at BSP. I can avoid mishaps when it goes inplay that way and get away with a slow stream. I find when I trade rather than straight value bet I just lose so much EV. Typically because I am taking profit too early. I mean really its impossible to trade out at max profit everytime so you always lose EV.

I remember from an old analysis the best value is laying horses around the BSP 80-150 mark most markets. Problem is at those prices I would guess the BSP wrong by a large margin

Maybe if I aim for the 3-1 lays with this strategy and see. As they seem profitable on the charts of that website.

[Bobajob]

Adrian Massey has some data on SP that might be what you are looking for....
https://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/odd/flodd0.htm

But looking at that chart I could lay BSP at most odds and profit , including comission?

Obviously that cant be the case ?

I guess one problem is you have to lay on liability not stake

Yes, there are some good opportunities to lay at the front end of the market.

Laying at stake is said to be more efficient mathematically than laying at liability.

Yes, there are some good opportunities to lay at the front end of the market.

Yes, especially in-play

[Fugazi]

Discovered why that chart doesn't equal a money machine.

It was bookmakers SP. Not Betfair SP

Thankfully figured that out after only wasting one day. Might have wasted a month testing it.

Interesting Bob reference in play. Haven't had time to look into some strategies for that yet, trying to master pre off first

[decomez6]

Adrian Massey has some data on SP that might be what you are looking for....
https://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/odd/flodd0.htm

But looking at that chart I could lay BSP at most odds and profit , including comission?

Obviously that cant be the case ?

I guess one problem is you have to lay on liability not stake

https://youtu.be/cPudqjFef1g?si=pXP9nCx7V4vghuGs

Bet angel latest video .

1.
Yes it's possible to beat the BSP .Peter does it ( I tried and failed miserably ). was always in the belief it's next to impossible to do it , but will have to look into it again .( Lessons learnt)

2.
BSP is skewed.. contains some in running variables. Meaning the 'real BSP' is slightly behind the real starting times @ off times . I guess this makes it artificially super efficient hence harder to beat .

3.
How do you define your favourites? OR any other selection for a long term strategy.
a) Volume
b) Price
c) Handicaps ( silks)
d) Predicted prices
e) Own tissue price ( self made )
f) BSP'
g) SP
i) Tipsters
g) Dynamic selection depending on your trading experience and what is happening on the ladder and outside in the field.

etc

4.
What is a true price ?
Are prices always right at any given moment?.. meaning , cross matching and book percentages will accommodate any information absorbed by the market ?

5. In peters example , all your bets must match the the true price and adjusted accordingly , in order to beat it i.e backed by liability / target win , when the actual price is above the true price .

6. You will still have to do a traders job of predicting the direction of a price .have your eyes on the ladder and outside it . And also ask for a price and get matched .

OR
(7.- )))))
- back a few chosen ,carefully selected favourites , ( the ones with artificial price movements and likely to beat BSP )

- Some will end up better than BSP

- Others not .

Then subject your results to bell curve of loses and profits .
Then if you are profitable at any given moment, you start a new cycle .

[Fugazi]

Adrian Massey has some data on SP that might be what you are looking for....
https://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/odd/flodd0.htm

But looking at that chart I could lay BSP at most odds and profit , including comission?

Obviously that cant be the case ?

I guess one problem is you have to lay on liability not stake

https://youtu.be/cPudqjFef1g?si=pXP9nCx7V4vghuGs

Bet angel latest video .

1.
Yes it's possible to beat the BSP .Peter does it ( I tried and failed miserably ). was always in the belief it's next to impossible to do it , but will have to look into it again .( Lessons learnt)

2.
BSP is skewed.. contains some in running variables. Meaning the 'real BSP' is slightly behind the real starting times @ off times . I guess this makes it artificially super efficient hence harder to beat .

3.
How do you define your favourites? OR any other selection for a long term strategy.
a) Volume
b) Price
c) Handicaps ( silks)
d) Predicted prices
e) Own tissue price ( self made )
f) BSP'
g) SP
i) Tipsters
g) Dynamic selection depending on your trading experience and what is happening on the ladder and outside in the field.

etc

4.
What is a true price ?
Are prices always right at any given moment?.. meaning , cross matching and book percentages will accommodate any information absorbed by the market ?

5. In peters example , all your bets must match the the true price and adjusted accordingly , in order to beat it i.e backed by liability / target win , when the actual price is above the true price .

6. You will still have to do a traders job of predicting the direction of a price .have your eyes on the ladder and outside it . And also ask for a price and get matched .

OR
(7.- )))))
- back a few chosen ,carefully selected favourites , ( the ones with artificial price movements and likely to beat BSP )

- Some will end up better than BSP

- Others not .

Then subject your results to bell curve of loses and profits .
Then if you are profitable at any given moment, you start a new cycle .

IF the SPs in that chart had actually been BSP, the margins are so good above 3-1 that it wouldnt matter if you slipped up time to time and picked the wrong horse...

Sadly though it is SP and not BSP!

[NotBothered]

BSP is somewhat misleading actually

in races of less volume BSP can be 50% of the price you get at the bookmakers

How can this be ? If I put a large BSP bet it happens often on smaller races.

BSP closes late - so if you watch the races especially pacing / trotting - if the F1 is travelling well it will start shorter than bookmaker or if its travelling roughly then it will start at a much longer price.// no value in betting early in these races

You asked specifically about less than $2 .. I think probably BSP would be marginally ahead - because of the Lay factor -- many people seem to want to lay short price F1 - but is the profit vs the risk of betting this all that attractive ? probably not

the difference probably lies in who has the most accurate price ratings

[NotBothered]

also something else

I get emails from betfair saying well if you used BSP over 10.000 bets you would have made 5.1% more money

but this is not accurate because like I say - when you start pumping money through BSP all of a sudden your getting alot less return (price return vs bookmaker SP is alot lower)

So to me it is a marketing tool more than a practical tool -- yeah I use it but nowhere near as much as I used too - because to me anyway it is over rated.