If I have what I think is a value bet,
Does it make any difference if I just let it run, or take BSP?
My thoughts are that in low liquid markets taking BSP could still be very slightly less value than letting it run? SO marginally I'm better off letting it run? Or will it make no difference at all? I guess as well, not taking BSP is one less transaction
US racing - let it run, or take starting price?
If you already have a bet, you either green it or let it run. Taking BSP would be placing another bet on it, or have I misunderstood?Fugazi wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 10:43 amIf I have what I think is a value bet,
Does it make any difference if I just let it run, or take BSP?
My thoughts are that in low liquid markets taking BSP could still be very slightly less value than letting it run? SO marginally I'm better off letting it run? Or will it make no difference at all? I guess as well, not taking BSP is one less transaction
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2325
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
I haven't done BSP betting on US racing but my gut instinct says you're going to be giving a little bit back. Especially if your stakes are of any decent size. The markets are pretty thin.
Technically im greening up but by placing the bet at BSP.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 12:55 pmIf you already have a bet, you either green it or let it run. Taking BSP would be placing another bet on it, or have I misunderstood?Fugazi wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 10:43 amIf I have what I think is a value bet,
Does it make any difference if I just let it run, or take BSP?
My thoughts are that in low liquid markets taking BSP could still be very slightly less value than letting it run? SO marginally I'm better off letting it run? Or will it make no difference at all? I guess as well, not taking BSP is one less transaction
Eg I lay at 2.4
BSP back at 2.8
Lay at 3.4
BSP back at 3.2 (i dont always get the value right)
If that makes sense.
Yeah thats what I suspect as well. I think at best it is 0 EV compared to letting it run, possibly -EV.jamesedwards wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 1:53 pmI haven't done BSP betting on US racing but my gut instinct says you're going to be giving a little bit back. Especially if your stakes are of any decent size. The markets are pretty thin.
Can't see a disadvantage to letting it run except needing a bigger bankroll for the variance
I've got you. I'd go along with James. Those markets are pretty weak. I've had a few safety closes at BSP on thin Aussie markets, the price returned can be unpredictable and sometimes many ticks away from where it last traded at off.Fugazi wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:30 pmTechnically im greening up but by placing the bet at BSP.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 12:55 pmIf you already have a bet, you either green it or let it run. Taking BSP would be placing another bet on it, or have I misunderstood?Fugazi wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 10:43 amIf I have what I think is a value bet,
Does it make any difference if I just let it run, or take BSP?
My thoughts are that in low liquid markets taking BSP could still be very slightly less value than letting it run? SO marginally I'm better off letting it run? Or will it make no difference at all? I guess as well, not taking BSP is one less transaction
Eg I lay at 2.4
BSP back at 2.8
Lay at 3.4
BSP back at 3.2 (i dont always get the value right)
If that makes sense.
